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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

image.png Potential wedge set-up around the 6th 7th?

Too warm verbatim but this looks pretty doable to me
 
Brent said:
so when does the freezing part of February begin? :confused:
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The sustained cold, if there is to be any, isn't supposed to start until some time within the 2nd week of Feb once the various indices line up in a favorable fashion. That week doesn't even start for another 10 days, which is beyond the reliable range of models. So, that is still pretty far out in the distance. Patience is needed. In the mean time, there's pretty good ups and downs to entertain us.
 
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0Z Euo early maps suggest a colder run vs 12Z later on imo fwiw at least up north of us..

Edit: And quite a bit colder it ended up in the SE 2/5-6.
 
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GFS continues to show and move up a time frame of strong Greenland ridging next month. I'm starting to wonder if we may see the lately ultra rare combination of west coast and Greenland ridging.
 
Just had a look at the 0z EPS. Again, it's fine if you think winter is over but what it's showing in the long range is still probably not going to happen (still showing a ridge over the entire US, not just the East). The Euro seems to depict it better and really, we all knew that the early periods of February were going to be transitory. It's what happens after that which matters.
 
End of 0z icon run is trying...still out there thiugh. H5 looks different on other globals with this time frame,for but expect it to continue to change.icon_z500_vort_namer_fh171-180.gif icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png
 
This is going to be a long week. Nothing fun this week and getting antsy waiting for another legit storm to follow.
 
Storm5 said:
Jb says cold Feb -Jan 19,in the way .....

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He's been hyping this since Mid January, hope it's right!
 
Storm5 said:
Jb says cold February and March in the way .....
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The first half of Feb is clearly going to be colder than normal in the E US as a whole and in the northern 2/3 of the US in particular. From that standpoint, alone, JB will very likely will get his cold Feb. That cold Feb doesn't require the SE to be colder than normal, which is the tougher call. The best shot at that as of now is in NC/TN. Fwiw, MDA has the SE US slightly cool for the 1st week of Feb with the northern part of the SE the coldest. For example, it has metwannabe 2 colder than normal 2/1-7 with ATL 1 colder than normal. The period 2/8-12 is when the cold gets more established with the coldest once again in the more northern areas with TN 6 colder than normal (-6) and NC/NW SC/N GA/N AL/N MS -5. Southern areas like Phil and myself are in the -2 to -3 range.

If the SE gets these numbers, it would be like night and day compared to last Feb's torch for that part of Feb. For example, KATL
was +9 2/1-12/2017! This forecast has them -3 or an average of 12 colder than last Feb 1-12!
 
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Another piece of energy back in in the southwest.

500hv.conus.png
 
The 2/5 system definitely looks interesting. I would think that TN, N AL, NW GA, and most of NC are in the game right now. The 12z GFS had a more favorable trough axis that allowed the storm to turn up the coast a bit more.
sn10_acc.us_ma.png

zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
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