10000000% agree. The models used to forecast here lately have been a failure, so at this point, I am saying use them as a broad guide, details may be completely different, and just look at overall systems and patterns because if you focus on cold air or phasing this early then it is just silly. We are within 144 hours of the low being cut off and becoming its own low. Let's get there first, then start figuring where it will go.
Yeah I know just me being pessimistic rough week so far still trying to get over Sunday night as a Falcons fan its seeping over to other things haha
You are right on!
Yep I was thinking the same just NW of the 95 corridor is gold this run. Should be a fun couple of weeks
liquid for here ... maybe pretty for there in a week ....
Agreed it's really not a bad look. Obviously you can nitpick here and there but give me that established vortex over the lakes and I'll take my chances
Holy cow ! yep your right nothing was showing just a few days ago. Need a slower system as you mentioned or a complete phase. Sign me up for this look In mid Feb
if that's the case why is it showing no snow in most of the south ?Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 55s55 seconds ago
only twice in 40 years has the MJO pulled what is forecasted in Feb. GFS goes ballistic as it tries to sort it out.
Let's just hope snow cover spreads south more in the near future!!!
That IDK? I'm sure he's mainly talking Mid Atlantic and NE? Like I said let's hope it spreads the love further south in the coming weeks!!!
not many coming weeks left - Albany thinks it's late March to April already
did you miss this part? as it tries to sort it out.
That's true, We need a hurry up pattern change, or we're def done!not many coming weeks left - Albany thinks it's late March to April already
according to JB - Only twice in 40 years has the MJO cranked this strong as forecasted in Feb 1978 and 1988
cause it's the SE . Just cause we get a favorable MJO does not mean we get wintry weather . Plus it's the SE ,snow is rare around here. that's why we all love it
The GFS does indeed show a small area, but I think it is a one run deal. The NAM says they will be limited to the mountains with maybe one or two making it into non mountain areas.
There could be a brief period of a few flurries and that's it.
I agree Larry...the para looks amazing.
wow that looks great man . I'm with you 100 percent . Best look all winter hands downI agree Larry...the para looks amazing.
Look at the trends over the last 4 runs of the Para...the northern stream/PV setting up shop over the lakes, huge change. The para is incredibly close to a phase and I wouldn't be surprised to see that relatively soon given trends. Anytime you start showing me a look like this with a -NAO, sign me up. This is hands down the best look we've seen all winter, even though it's going to count on perfect timing, seldom do we get storms that don't unless it's overrunning.
jon's got mojo, no doubt!
