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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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I'm at work tonight, so my friends keep hope alive in here lol.
 
We are going to start cleaning up the pattern thread with too much crazy banter and stuff. No offense to anyone who sees a post removed or something.

Also, no, we are not mad at anyone specifically. But we do want people to be able to read about the pattern without having to scroll through 4-5 pages of banter in between the good information.

Please use the banter thread here: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/banter-venting-thread.11/page-15
 
Our possible winter storm is stronger and further south than the 18z run out in the Pacific at hr 78.

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That possible storm is going to end up digging if things stay the same on the run so far. Uh oh, is it coming back? Stay tuned.
 
Ridge is higher out west at hr 108...this is a sign that the trough will be digging deeper.

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Its cut off and just being silly back there now. I think wave separation is happening. Too much? Lets see.
 
This is the first solution from GFS I have seen of it cutting off back there and lagging well behind the lead wave in all reality.
 
HEre she comes, albeit slowly. Not a fail yet.
 
This isn't going to do it. We don't really want the ridge that tall, prevents any energy from digging. Snowy solutions were digging into a more flattened ridge by now, this energy will just shear out along the ridge. This run does have more energy hanging back near Washington, but it doesn't matter if it doesn't slide out with the main energy and dig early.


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Energy finally ejecting by 132 into central US, this is good but I'd like to see it happen earlier. This could be interesting but my guess is it's snow for the NE if it digs quick enough otherwise it's OTS


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I'd guess if anything survives, it will be North regardless.
 
Thought we needed a taller ridge!? Now all of a sudden, the ridge is too tall!?
 
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