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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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What's the chance of the PV to come a little further south? Don't want it too far south, cause then it's suppression city.

For a good big snow, a storm and the PV need to have a convergence that way it will mostly be a snow event and not rain to snow. Right now the convergence is occurring north of here, over the Mid-Atlantic on the models.

I'd like to see some more ridgeing over the North Atlantic to help push the PV down some. If it trends further south and if there is a convergence with a storm system further south then sign me up. Right now, if we don't get the cold in here from the PV while a storm system is coming through then, I'm hoping we'll see that ULL produce some deep cold air.

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bouncycorn said:
Trends are going the "right" direction but I wouldn't say this is a great setup as of now. It's honestly just a disconnected shortwave and 50/50 wave. They don't interact plus there is no high pressure to our northwest. It'd take a pretty big change in setup for us to get enough cold air.


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who wouldn't take their chances with a piece of the PV sitting over the lakes ? Best looking setup all winter IMO





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man if only the para could be right with this look
fc1899ab78300cee02ecb3815c3eb598.jpg


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Jon said:
I agree Larry...the para looks amazing.

Look at the trends over the last 4 runs of the Para...the northern stream/PV setting up shop over the lakes, huge change. The para is incredibly close to a phase and I wouldn't be surprised to see that relatively soon given trends. Anytime you start showing me a look like this with a -NAO, sign me up. This is hands down the best look we've seen all winter, even though it's going to count on perfect timing, seldom do we get storms that don't unless it's overrunning.

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Very nice look...


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Storm5 said:
who wouldn't take their chances with a piece of the PV sitting over the lakes ? Best looking setup all winter IMO





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I see why you'd say that and I kinda agree. But I don't know if it'll produce. The early January setup was arguably better but you didn't have the upper level support with that system. If we can get a high pressure a little further south in the plains, which there is definitely enough time for, we'll be in major business.

In terms of setups several days out, it doesn't get much better!


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I am going to New Orleans 2/25-2/28 for Mardi Gras...mark it down...as it will probably come a huge snow storm since I won't be here to experience it lmao.
 
bouncycorn said:
I see why you'd say that and I kinda agree. But I don't know if it'll produce. The early January setup was arguably better but you didn't have the upper level support with that system. If we can get a high pressure a little further south in the plains, which there is definitely enough time for, we'll be in major business.

In terms of setups several days out, it doesn't get much better!


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I agree. I guess the truth is , the only great setup is one the actually produces lol

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I'm going to have a video up before the 0z GFS run...I should have one up before then

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Fog rolling in for the third night in a row. Incredible how the weather has been inconsistently consistent. Maybe it will mean we get snow later on lol. Things look great and I think someone could score coming up if the pattern verifies.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Fog rolling in for the third night in a row. Incredible how the weather has been inconsistently consistent. Maybe it will mean we get snow later on lol. Things look great and I think someone could score coming up if the pattern verifies.
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The northeast will definitely score.
 
New video, in this video discussion, I talk about of what I want to see on the models in the coming days.

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18z GFS has the cutoff low closed off much earlier than any modeling so far. Cuts off at 90 hours much more south and west. 12z Para cut off over the 4 corners region at hour 120.
 
The ULL has more disconnection with the northern stream at 102 and 108 than 18z. The energy is also wrapping up more than 18z. This run could have a colder core with that ULL.

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GFS operational 2mT 168 HR forecast bias January 2017 & the first 7 days of February... The GFS actually had a warm bias in the SE US in January while thus far in Feb it's been verifying way too cold @/around 168 HR.

ANOM2m_bias_past07_ntham.png
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This run not likely to be much different than the 18z. By 156 hours the ULL is no longer cutoff, 18z held it until 2/15 00z or 174 hours. Timing as far as east movement virtually identical to 18z at 165 hours. We need this ULL hanging back and spinning around much longer (and stronger) like the para in order to allow the confluence/PV to swing in. What you see swinging in at 132 hours on the 00z isn't the PV.
 
The PV is being held back than 18z. On the 18z you could see the edge of the vortex over eastern Canada at 12z Wed. No vortex there yet at 12z Wed on 0z. The cold will come in after the ULL on this run.

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At 177hr it closes off over central TX, that's good and different than the 18z. But yeah, started jogging east way too soon, not going to cut it.
 
Don't worry y'all, days 12-16 will be good....that time period looks like it will have good times.

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NE special incoming...looks like there will be a phase there

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