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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Storm5 said:
not gonna be able to dig that much with such a flat flow

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If you look at the 12z run from Thursday you can see too that the 500mb flow across the SE had already backed to the WSW and this run its NW...hard to get anything going diving down the backside of a trough unless it's a real monster wave. The kicking energy in the west isn't helpful either. The trend to separate the energy and delay the wave is at least enough to keep me mildly intrigued

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I wouldn't call it strange or odd just yet. Lets see what Jon's graphic shows and why the solution was not good this run.
 
Nope, we don't even get to see that spinning low OTS on this run... (may be there but even further OTS)
 
Sucks if this Friday thing doesn't work, cause you can see the cold really rolling out quickly and the torch building back in TX, ready to pounce!
 
Shawn said:
I wouldn't call it strange or odd just yet. Lets see what Jon's graphic shows and why the solution was not good this run.
Click to expand...
Well, the disturbance was doing good in till 132+. That's not the right angle for it to be coming in for a winter storm. The track is more like a clipper. The reason why I say this run was strange because the past GFS runs did not show this solution, not quite.

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For those relying on the GFS on this upcoming possible storm.......the trends aren't good for you...


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I don't think most folks realize how unusually positive the GEFS PNA prediction peak is for midmonth. I didn't realize how extremely rare this would be til this evening. Many members are predicted to either approach or even exceed +2.0 around 2/14-5! And the GEFS bias is actually not being + enough! Since 1950, only 3 days in all of DJF have reached +2.0!!! All 3 had +AO:

2/28/1983: +2.081 (ATL cold rain)
2/28/1968: +2.291 (ATL T of SN)
2/29/1968: +2.353 (ATL 2.3" SN)

Are we about to make history? Again, this is near the peak for much of the SE for major SN. Also, one of, if not THE, strongest correlations to SE snow and cold is when there is a +PNA. Furthermore, the MJO is forecasted to then be in high amp phase 8, which has averaged solid cold in the SE. As if that weren't enough, the bias adjusted AO is forecasted to be solidly negative, which also correlates to cold.

However, model consensus is currently suggesting no colder than slightly below normal around 2/14-5 and no threat of wintry wx despite this great combo. Might this change as we get closer?

I had put this together just before the 0Z GFS was released. I see that this run is, indeed, MUCH colder for ~2/13-15 than prior consensus. I think it is onto something.
 
How's the GFS ensemble members looking like...not the snowfall members but the surface members

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I'm merely about half intrigued by 10-11. I don't think this will end well though. Either we see nothing or we see a storm but it's much warmer.
 
00z gefs took a step back. it's not completely horrible but it's a step back IMO

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GaWx said:
I don't think most folks realize how unusually positive the GEFS PNA prediction peak is for midmonth. I didn't realize how extremely rare this would be til this evening. Many members are predicted to either approach or even exceed +2.0 around 2/14-5! And the GEFS bias is actually not being + enough! Since 1950, only 3 days in all of DJF have reached +2.0!!! All 3 had +AO:

2/28/1983: +2.081 (ATL cold rain)
2/28/1968: +2.291 (ATL T of SN)
2/29/1968: +2.353 (ATL 2.3" SN)

Are we about to make history? Again, this is near the peak for much of the SE for major SN. Also, one of, if not THE, strongest correlations to SE snow and cold is when there is a +PNA. Furthermore, the MJO is forecasted to then be in high amp phase 8, which has averaged solid cold in the SE. As if that weren't enough, the bias adjusted AO is forecasted to be solidly negative, which also correlates to cold.

However, model consensus is currently suggesting no colder than slightly below normal around 2/14-5 and no threat of wintry wx despite this great combo. Might this change as we get closer?

I had put this together just before the 0Z GFS was released. I see that this run is, indeed, MUCH colder for ~2/13-15 than prior consensus. I think it is onto something.
Click to expand...

Here's to hoping things are changing and possibly seeing something fun around my birthday. But then again we've seen those indices not play out...


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fc45fc3d89460a67661d19890b3df092.jpg
6beeaec8fed465a3ab864b6ad7ef494d.jpg


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I've seen worse gefs looks!?
 
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