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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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CPC still beating the "cold air" drum, though ... (FWIW)

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Jeremy Camp said:
Atlanta area received 10 inches i'd be happy!!
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Well, if that deep cold air will get in here during the most part of the system and not at the last minute we could get that much. 1" of rain = 10" of snow, again, only *if* the system was all snow for the most part.

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I'm locking this thread and cleaning it up. There is a banter thread for a reason. I'm just as guilty as some for getting off track. let's keep the discussion about February

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Wish the sun angle myth would just die. It has to do with snow melt, that's it. It's not really noticeable given we get a large snowstorm until after February. It's a pretty much non factor, in general...thus, quit mentioning it.


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The 12Z looks actually decent. Surface temps are in the low 40s and the 850s are close for many in the upper southeast. Don't focus on details, but the range they can go, eight up some or down some. If they trend down, someone down in the south could be happy.
 
Stormlover said:
yeah, let that be remembered next time someone says it was too warm the day before so it won't stick ;-)
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Yup, it doesn't matter how warm it's been or how long...you can still get significant snowfall amounts, regardless how warm it's been.

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It seems the last few years that even if the teleconnections are favorable we don't score. Not that we would necessarily in the south but seems that they are less predictive than ever before.


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Ground Temps are just fine regardless of today's temperature.

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12z Euro could be a very good run, ULL much slower than the 00z


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Jon said:
12z Euro could be a very good run, ULL much slower than the 00z


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And just as I say that the ULL is too far north in NE TX


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packfan98 said:
The low looks very far north to me at hr 144.
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It is. I was hoping the ULL will spin around as a cutoff but it ejects and is too far north. Hard to predict the future lol! This run should be colder though


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The ull was stronger on this run and it does look a tick colder, if I had to guess the NE is about to get slammed.....
 
Sorry guys. Looks like the facts must be faced of lacking cold air.
 
Stormlover said:
I agree with Storm last night when he said "why would anyone write off a system 8 or 9 days away". I concur.
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Well....if it don't start trending colder and if there's no ensemble support, I'm writing it off.

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With all due respect, and I have seen stranger things....when was the last time we saw a storm that started too warm trend for the better and stay better? Unless we see a phase or the bowling ball turns into what we saw in March '09, this one isn't going to work either (and never really started well).
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
With all due respect, and I have seen stranger things....when was the last time we saw a storm that started too warm trend for the better and stay better? Unless we see a phase or the bowling ball turns into what we saw in March '09, this one isn't going to work either (and never really started well).
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100% agree
 
The 12z CMC is amazing close to what we want. Storm is very suppressed with the great lakes vortex swinging in. Slow the storm down 12 hours and we could get a decent phase, it would be game on. The look is much like the para was showing.

I'm not done with this storm at all...sure it probably won't happen, but until all models lock onto a situation, it's not over.
 
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