Jon
Member
I made this graphic after the 18z run, I'm sure it will still be helpful when looking at the 00z and subsequent runs as well
Basically runs on the left are SE storms (1,2,3), runs on the right aren't (4,5,6).. top left is 12z OP run from yesterday, bottom right is 18z from today...
Visualized in thumbnails it's easy to see what we need to get lucky here.
-The west coast ridge needs to be more positively tilted, if you will...seen in frame #1. This allows that energy seen in frames 1-3 to dig deep into the SE. You'll notice there's no energy hanging back, it doesn't matter. Once that energy digs SE, it pulls that finger of strung out energy along the ridge with it, phases, and we have our storm over the SE.
-You'll see in #4 why a tall ridge is NOT what we need. Energy digs south, but the tail end of the energy is basically vertical, this leads to the storm going positive-tilt out to sea that run due to the ridge-axis being way too far east, thus the trough is way too far east.
-The "trend" for 18z Thursday on the GFS is moving the ridge east, that's not good. However, the GEFS mean trend is is beating down the ridge a bit, so that is a good sign and the 00z mean from tonight on the GEFS is over Arizona, which is good also.
Check out how flat the ridging is on one of our storm solutions
versus the most recent run
We need to see the flat ridging with energy digging early, as early as 120hrs or so, in order to cash in on anything significant here.
Basically runs on the left are SE storms (1,2,3), runs on the right aren't (4,5,6).. top left is 12z OP run from yesterday, bottom right is 18z from today...
Visualized in thumbnails it's easy to see what we need to get lucky here.
-The west coast ridge needs to be more positively tilted, if you will...seen in frame #1. This allows that energy seen in frames 1-3 to dig deep into the SE. You'll notice there's no energy hanging back, it doesn't matter. Once that energy digs SE, it pulls that finger of strung out energy along the ridge with it, phases, and we have our storm over the SE.
-You'll see in #4 why a tall ridge is NOT what we need. Energy digs south, but the tail end of the energy is basically vertical, this leads to the storm going positive-tilt out to sea that run due to the ridge-axis being way too far east, thus the trough is way too far east.
-The "trend" for 18z Thursday on the GFS is moving the ridge east, that's not good. However, the GEFS mean trend is is beating down the ridge a bit, so that is a good sign and the 00z mean from tonight on the GEFS is over Arizona, which is good also.
Check out how flat the ridging is on one of our storm solutions
versus the most recent run
We need to see the flat ridging with energy digging early, as early as 120hrs or so, in order to cash in on anything significant here.
...on those three rare occurrences. I can tell you it is going to be bitter cold when it comes because I have an idiot tree that is putting out leaves behind my house, and another I can see beyond the back yard is leafed out and green as can be, albeit, early spring type leaves. That is just asking for the hammer 
