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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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So now the second low stays more defined outside of an early piece splitting out. I have a feeling this might be our first CMC solution on the GFS and those have been too warm.
 
Well, this run is back to improvement

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Let's see what the ensemble shows...this run looks identical to a past ensemble member I have seen.

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trough is still too far east . it was improved over previous runs but still too far east

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Its not organized but the GFS seems to be trying its darnedest to move back toward a previous solution we were seeing before it lost the storm. Instead of it being well OTS, its tried to organize a low on the southeast coast for the last two runs before it scoots away.
 
That was more interesting for 2/10. Now let's see whether or not the 12Z GFS gets more interesting during the possibly near record high +PNA being projected for the period centered on 2/14.
 
The CMC is in a completely different direction we don't want to see at all. It doesn't get cold after the cutter, and there is a wave two but it tries to cut and just stretches out and disappears.
 
Definitely better GFS run, and as far as the CMC, well, it's the crazy uncle we all know, so maybe it will fix itself. The real factors will be the GEFS and the 12Z Euro.
 
GaWx said:
That was more interesting for 2/10. Now let's see whether or not the 12Z GFS gets more interesting during the possibly near record high +PNA being projected for the period centered on 2/14.
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Not on this run but I maintain that there's still lots of potential and larger than normal uncertainty for the period centered on 2/14 due to the progged near record high for winter +PNA in combo with both the residual effects of the progged strong -AO for just prior to this period and the progged strong MJO phase 8 (along with taking into account the 2nd week in February having had the largest # of major winter storms in history of any week for many in the SE). Keep in mind that period is still some 10 or so days away.
 
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