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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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metwannabe said:
OMG you could not ask for a better storm track...... how many times have we seen this and said give me that look in Jan/Feb and I'd call it a Winter??
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Give me that look in Jan and early Feb and I think we'd be in business. Unfortunately, we're talking mid Feb here and things are warming up in a hurry.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Not jon, but on this run verbatim there is actually more cold air to work with. A stronger high is also pushing down
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OK - it's this run - but dynamically, where is the cold coming from and how does it get down into the SE (not talking "cool" - a relative term)? I'd really love to know the dynamic.
 
Once again, a good track and no cold air. It seems to be trying to get there, but not good enough on this run either.

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This run looks way more interesting, more cold air to work with
 
BTW: There was interaction with this storm from the s/w that was diving in from the plains last run. I don't think there's going to be a phase this run but it got closer and I think it got a couple ticks colder again. It's very slowly getting colder, not a lot, but some.
 
Oh Ooo...starting to see some snow on the very northern shield of moisture at 186.

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It looks closer this run to something. Gives light snow to the far northern areas of moisture.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_31.png
 
gfs_asnow_us_35.png
this might mean much to some, but this tells me the low held back longer, allowing to get colder.
 
That piece over Iowa at 222 in sure it gets shunted east but if it comes south someone gets a good one

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The day 12+ system could be good on this run. The northern stream is where I want it. Will that energy phase that is over the SW? We'll see.

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SnowHusky said:
The day 12+ system could be good on this run. The northern stream is where I want it. Will that energy phase that is over the SW? We'll see.

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my hair will go from auburn to grey by then ... LOL
 
SnowHusky said:
The day 12+ system could be good on this run. The northern stream is where I want it. Will that energy phase that is over the SW? We'll see.

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Just curious. What skill do the models have at the day 12 range ?
 
FWIW: After this system around 16/17, the GFS is in a completely different direction than what we've seen previously. Although it eventually warms up again, it was much warmer on the 12z.
 
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