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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Rain Cold said:
The GEFS has been consistent in that look in the LR. I'm sure we'll still find a way to screw it up.
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The has a nice ridge over AK and trough in the SE but it also has a trough along the west coast. At this point I'm down for just token flakes. Good news is it might rain tonight and wash some of the salt and sand off that's still on the roads from January

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SD said:
The has a nice ridge over AK and trough in the SE but it also has a trough along the west coast. At this point I'm down for just token flakes. Good news is it might rain tonight and wash some of the salt and sand off that's still on the roads from January

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What? You still have salt on the roads up there? All of the salt is gone from the roads here in ATL. They must've used more salt up your way, or you didn't get as much rain like we have down here since then.

(I hate salt on the roads, it's bad on your vehicle and makes the roads have holes. That's why up north there's holes all in the roads. It's like driving off road up there lol. The salt made my truck turn white from the Jan. event, well not permanently white lol.)

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Don't worry! The DGEX agrees about a small snow stripe! LOL
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SnowHusky said:
What? You still have salt on the roads up there? All of the salt is gone from the roads here in ATL. They must've used more salt up your way, or you didn't get as much rain like we have down here since then.

(I hate salt on the roads, it's bad on your vehicle and makes the roads have holes. That's why up north there's holes all in the roads. It's like driving off road up there lol. The salt made my truck turn white from the Jan. event, we'll not permanently white lol.)

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Yep even here where I live the roads are horrible after most winters. I'm sure constantly going below freezing then back above all winter reeks havoc on them. This year I think they are safe though unfortunately.
 
SnowHusky said:
What? You still have salt on the roads up there? All of the salt is gone from the roads here in ATL. They must've used more salt up your way, or you didn't get as much rain like we have down here since then.

(I hate salt on the roads, it's bad on your vehicle and makes the roads have holes. That's why up north there's holes all in the roads. It's like driving off road up there lol. The salt made my truck turn white from the Jan. event, we'll not permanently white lol.)

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Yep there is still some salt and sand on the non primary roads. Its rain just hasn't been the good convective stuff that can really get whats left off
 
lmao the DGEX idea looks a lot like what I'm seeing on the GFS. Before that system moves into the southeast, it just sits and spins over New Mexico/Texas for a while. On a lot of runs, I remember it being a lot of wintry weather.
 
I've driven through Amarillo a few times and seen some big snows out there. They get some big ones for only having an average annual snowfall of 15 inches. I assume it's due to the location.
 
I haven't gotten much snow at all this winter, but I can tell you that I've gotten more foggy days this winter. To bad those foggy days weren't snowy days. Yeah, yeah, TX can get more snow than we can, and TX is in the lower latitudes, but they don't have to deal with the SER that far west.

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SnowHusky said:
I haven't gotten much snow at all this winter, but I can tell you that I've gotten more foggy days this winter. To bad those foggy days weren't snowy days. Yeah, yeah, TX can get more snow than we can, and TX is in the lower latitudes, but they don't have to deal with the SER that far west.

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Plus they are a good 1000-2000 feet above most of us.
 
There was one day I remember back in early or mid December in which the fog was so thick it was making a middle of the afternoon day look more like it was early in the morning. It lasted all day and it just seemed so strange. While I was outside there was certain areas in which it felt warmer than others.

Just seemed spooky.
 
BHS1975 said:
Might get some thunder tonight you know what that means.


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I got my house shaking thunder last night...No wonder I got a small fake strip of snow imby on the 18z GFS. LOL!


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pcbjr said:
CR/RC - you and i sing from the same set list!

that's been my refrain/harmony line since December

bad tune , no doubt

but it's the gig we have
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Our objections to this pattern have apparently been overruled!
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
There was one day I remember back in early or mid December in which the fog was so thick it was making a middle of the afternoon day look more like it was early in the morning. It lasted all day and it just seemed so strange. While I was outside there was certain areas in which it felt warmer than others.

Just seemed spooky.
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Sounds like you've watched the movie "The Fog", I've seen that movie.

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Now all three of the +PNA, -AO, and MJO phase 8 are forecasted to peak at about the same time, 2/15, along with a now -NAO:

1. The +PNA peak, adjusted very slightly upward for bias, is up its highest yet, +2.05! A 2+ +PNA day happens one every 600 or so Feb days.
2. The MJO phase 8 peak is way up at 3.0! A 3+ phase 8 day happens about once every 150 feb days.
3. The -AO peak, adjusted less negative for bias, is down to its lowest yet, -3! A -3 or more negative AO day happens about once every 10 Feb days.
4. To add to that, for the first time, the NAO is forecasted to go negative with a peak also near 2/15 (-0.2 after small bias adjustment).

Bottom line: this is no ordinary pattern and the models may have more trouble than usual with any potential storm. Also, 2/15-6, when that storm is currently projected to affect the SE, is at the peak of winter snow climo. Remember that just a few days ago there was no SE storm as it was dry. Also, I see the 18Z GFS is colder for the storm.
 
It's funny watching people in the New York forum on the other board panic about maybe only getting 8-12" of snow while Long Island gets more lol.
 
Larry, if the ao and nao are negative, why aren't we getting cold and when could we before winter is over? Mjo in wrong phases? I'm confused. I'm talking to Gawx
 
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Wow, 12z EPS has a big storm days 12+. Let there be cold air in place with a storm like that down in the Gulf.

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Golferwhotries said:
Larry, if the ao and nao are negative, why aren't we getting cold and when could we before winter is over? Mjo in wrong phases? I'm confused
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1. We may still get colder at midmonth. That is still a week away.
2. The AO is only modestly negative right now as it is just now plunging.
3. The NAO is still + right now but is projected to fall.
4. We're just coming out of the warmest MJO phase, high amp phase 5.
5. Indonesian convection has been the culprit (the missing link) as regards a warm E US per what I posted yesterday from a pro met. He thinks the warmth will continue due to the convection continuing, which he says makes the effects like a warm MJO phases 4-6 no matter where the MJO is. This is related to the Pacific problem that the poster pcbjr has been emphasizing over and over.
6. The different indices are only tools that need to be looked at together and they are not anywhere close to being crystal balls.
 
GaWx said:
Now all three of the +PNA, -AO, and MJO phase 8 are forecasted to peak at about the same time, 2/15, along with a now -NAO:

1. The +PNA peak, adjusted very slightly upward for bias, is up its highest yet, +2.05! A 2+ +PNA day happens one every 600 or so Feb days.
2. The MJO phase 8 peak is way up at 3.0! A 3+ phase 8 day happens about once every 150 feb days.
3. The -AO peak, adjusted less negative for bias, is down to its lowest yet, -3! A -3 or more negative AO day happens about once every 10 Feb days.
4. To add to that, for the first time, the NAO is forecasted to go negative with a peak also near 2/15 (-0.2 after small bias adjustment).

Bottom line: this is no ordinary pattern and the models may have more trouble than usual with any potential storm. Also, 2/15-6, when that storm is currently projected to affect the SE, is at the peak of winter snow climo. Remember that just a few days ago there was no SE storm as it was dry. Also, I see the 18Z GFS is colder for the storm.
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Bring it home Larry!!!
 
GaWx said:
1. We may still get colder at midmonth. That is still a week away.
2. The AO is only modestly negative right now as it is just now plunging.
3. The NAO is still + right now but is projected to fall.
4. We're just coming out of the warmest MJO phase, high amp phase 5.
5. Indonesian convection has been the culprit (the missing link) as regards a warm E US per what I posted yesterday from a pro met. He thinks the warmth will continue due to the convection continuing, which he says makes the effects like a warm MJO phases 4-6 no matter where the MJO is. This is related to the Pacific problem that the poster pcbjr has been emphasizing over and over.
6. The different indices are only tools that need to be looked at together and they are not anywhere close to being crystal balls.
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If that's true, why are we even holding out any hope remaining of the winter? I thought we would get colder when mjo becomes more favorable and with better teleconnections
 
If there is no cold air on our side of the world, then it doesn't matter if all the indicies are perfect and pointing to trough east, and split flow, or whatever, if the trough full of pacific air, it's not going to get anybody down south a snowstorm
 
SnowHusky said:
Wow, 12z EPS has a big storm days 12+. Let there be cold air in place with a storm like that down in the Gulf.

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Again, as I've been saying for several days, with a massive ridge over SE Canada and into the Great Lakes, I'd be much more concerned about severe weather than wintry weather w/ that system, looks awfully similar to January's setup.
 
Tarheel1 said:
If there is no cold air on our side of the world, then it doesn't matter if all the indicies are perfect and pointing to trough east, and split flow, or whatever, if the trough full of pacific air, it's not going to get anybody down south a snowstorm
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Tarheel, that's what im saying. No point even hoping for cold and snow if all cold is overseas and not coming south anytime soon. Very bad pattern and bad break despite favorable everything else
 
Tarheel1 said:
If there is no cold air on our side of the world, then it doesn't matter if all the indicies are perfect and pointing to trough east, and split flow, or whatever, if the trough full of pacific air, it's not going to get anybody down south a snowstorm
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Agreed and unfortunately that looks like the case. As was shown on the 18z gfs there could be enough cold around for a narrow band of snow but it's not like we are going to get a mega arctic push next week

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Webberweather53 said:
Again, as I've been saying for several days, with a massive ridge over SE Canada and into the Great Lakes, I'd be much more concerned about severe weather than wintry weather w/ that system, looks awfully similar to January's setup.
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Yes, it does look like the Jan. severe wx outbreak. I do see that massive ridge in Canada, that's some strong ridgeing.

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SnowHusky said:
Yes, it does look like the Jan. severe wx outbreak. I do see that massive ridge in Canada, that's some strong ridging.

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Several EPS members are in the 970s-980s w/ the attendant surface low across the mid-lower MS valley... That would challenge monthly all-time record lows
FebruaryRecordLowSLPs.gif
eps_slp_lows_east_51.png
 
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