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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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12z euro tried
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NorthGAWinterWx said:
12z Euro, the low is there, 850 temps are an issue. I'd like to see that high closer by to allow colder air.
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This is getting to be like reading last week's newspaper (not shooting the messenger here BTW!)
 
As I suspected, it's not there but a low trying to organize off of the SC coast is a step in the right direction. Hopefully we get surprised but I'm not expecting to be.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Larry, great stuff! If we score a storm on any of the two dates you listed above, you will be my hero! I just see a lot of warm temps and t storms
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Well, Larry, armed only with his climo facts, his abacus, and his exceptional mind, lol, predicted snow for Savannah, Savannah now, beaches, ice cream, etc. and he nailed it. So all eyes should be on the mid month period! I wouldn't bet against him!! T
 
If the GFS has a cold bias and every other model says warm, then let's move along and work on our flower beds.


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I'm trying to think why that surface high is not coming down further south. Usually Arctic HPs come down into the upper Plains. At hr 96 on 12z Euro it shows the low from the cutter wrapping up north of Lake Ontario. By that time, I'm thinking the HP will be in the upper Plains and not up there on the Canada/MT boarder.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'm trying to think why that surface high is not coming down further south. Usually Arctic HPs come down into the upper Plains. At hr 96 on 12z Euro it shows the low from the cutter wrapping up north of Lake Ontario. By that time, I'm thinking the HP will be in the upper Plains and not up there on the Canada/MT boarder.

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its the Pac - throwing grit in the gearbox ...
 
The energy is strung out in the NW on the 12z Euro, much like the 00z GFS...but the ridging is a tad more west albeit stronger...so it's a mixed bag as far as what we want to see. Still, the Euro is much colder over the SE...so the GFS isn't entirely alone on the cold now.

Here's 850mb temps for 00z 2/10
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Jon said:
The energy is strung out in the NW on the 12z Euro, much like the 00z GFS...but the ridging is a tad more west albeit stronger...so it's a mixed bag as far as what we want to see. Still, the Euro is much colder over the SE...so the GFS isn't entirely alone on the cold now.

Here's 850mb temps for 00z 2/10
73ea8eefe3419a4bdb6e0e353b39008b.jpg



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keep dispensing, Dr. Jon! Makes me feel better, anyway LOL

hey Man - Thanks for getting over here - you are a treasure :~)
 
pcbjr said:
keep dispensing, Dr. Jon! Makes me feel better, anyway LOL

hey Man - Thanks for getting over here - you are a treasure :~)
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Lol no problem. The mega warmth apocalypse talk was getting old over there, have to take a vacation from it. Good trends today and still a long way off for the models to find the storm again. Can't get excited til that happens though!


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pcbjr said:
its the Pac - throwing grit in the gearbox ...
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The low is sitting over TX while the high sits over the Canadian/MT boarder. Realistically, (I hate to say it) the high should be over the Plains at that point.

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