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Pattern February Discussion Part II
- Thread starter Shawn
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People on here are talking about a big Northwest Trend but if we have massive blocking in Greenland it actually could trend South toward Suppression if anything!!! Now with that being said I WANT SOME FLURRIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA THATS ALL I NEED!!!
Greenland block isn't that important for Dixie systems imo. It mainly helps with New England systems. Much more direct impact there.
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Storm5
Member
GeorgiaGirl
Member
cmc runs pretty far inland for the storm on the 16th, fwiw.
I'm intrigued by the storm on the 16th but I need to see some more support for a colder solution and southern slider.
I'm intrigued by the storm on the 16th but I need to see some more support for a colder solution and southern slider.
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Yep. I'll set the percentage of verification generously at 10%. That second system is awesome though I'd love to just see that happen.
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Storm5
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18z para has the same idea as the 00z gfs op
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Storm5
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not an apps runner . slides ots off the Carolina coast
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Was that the storm where Atlanta was under a Winter Storm Warning and got screwed and ended up with nothing ?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I changed my wording.
Yeah that's pretty close to pound city here but as has been said ad Nauseum the cold is lacking
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Storm5
Member
sound silly ? have you seen some of the posts in this thread.
I remember that one very well
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The GFS typically has a strong cold bias and with the attendant too far south storm tracks as we've seen this season. However, I have recently realized that the one pattern it will probably perform better (little or no cold bias/storm tracks not too far south and, therefore, storm tracks not trending northward with time) with is a +PNA. I've gone on and on about the recent horrible GFS cold bias. However, because of the extremely high +PNA coming at the same time as this storm, I don't expect later GFS runs for around the time of this storm to keep getting warmer. In contrast, they may very well cool more and with the storm track likely staying in the Gulf. This is helped by mid Feb climo, which has about as far south an average storm track as at any time of winter along with the most concentrated activity in history for much of the SE.
Note that as strong of a PNA as the GFS has been forecasting for about a week, it is actually getting a little stronger from day to day. In addition, both the AO and the NAO have been trending much more in the negative direction the last few days for around the time if he storm. And the extremely high amp MJO phase 8 can't be ignored. Translation: trend is your friend. The GFS appears to be playing catchup to an extent. Note that these last two runs are the coldest of any GFS runs with the storm.
This is truly an exciting time to be a SE wx hobbyist. With a near record high +PNA, near record high Feb MJO amp 8, a very strongly -AO, a trend toward a -NAO and the best major snow climo of the winter all progged to collide, how can a hobbyist not be excited right now about the wild possibilities? I can say with confidence that this combo won't happen again
in our lifetimes. Does this mean a major winter storm for the SE? I don't know and neither does anyone else. But this extreme rarity of factors is maintaining my excitement about midmonth potential.
Larry, what is climo like for snow in late Feb ? Is there a fast dropoff in snow climo between Mid and Late Feb ?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
At the risk of taking this waayyyy off topic, the risks that I remember as possibilities that were discussed before the 2/25/15 were a possible very sharp cutoff between a lot of snow and not much at all and the possibility of a dry slot not too far away from where the deform band set up. Well the very sharp cutoff happened and the deform band set up to where the dry slot was Atlanta, GA (at least parts of the area).
I was attending college in NW GA then and that was my favorite storm. All snow and it was wet.
I was attending college in NW GA then and that was my favorite storm. All snow and it was wet.
It's amazing the different experiences in just 50 or so miles. That was your favorite storm and that was my least favorite storm ever. When they say I-20 is the dividing line between rain and snow many times it is literally the case. Amazing how that works.
No. It drops off somewhat in frequency at places I've analyzed (like ATL, CAE thanks to Shawn's chart, CHS, SAV). However, it still is rather active at both ATL and CAE. It is that it hasn't been quite as active as the relatively very active 2nd week/midmonth period. Actually, at CAE, late feb is still easily the 2nd most active with regard to the history of major snowstorms (again thanks to Shawn for posting that list).
Larry,
I'm excited about the possibilities but not that excited yet cause we're 6-7 days away from this event and there's no model agreement with the Euro. 12z Euro is warmer and track of low is further north.
Now of course, if the Euro starts to trend towards what the GFS has been showing, then I'll sign up.
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I'm excited about the possibilities but not that excited yet cause we're 6-7 days away from this event and there's no model agreement with the Euro. 12z Euro is warmer and track of low is further north.
Now of course, if the Euro starts to trend towards what the GFS has been showing, then I'll sign up.
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You may not have this info off the top of your head, but do you remember the last time Atlanta had a major snow or ice event in the 2nd half of Feb ( between Feb 15-29 ) ?
I still don't like what the GFS is showing. You need high pressure. It's a requirement for significant Dixie snow events. What the GFS showed was like 2-8" of snow from atl to cae falling into upper 30s and lower 40s. I know it's attainable, but temperatures that high at the surface won't drop 10 degrees easily.
And you won't get a simple warmer/cooler trend. You need a high pressure to get any more of a cooling trend, imo.
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Storm5
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00z gefs has MANY suppressed members
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But this system does look like 2/25/15. If I had to pick an analog it'd be that one.
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Suppressed is definitely what we want in this range.
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This sounds reasonable. Believe me, I want to see the King support this. IF there really is going to be a SE storm, one would think the Euro runs will eventually show it.
Storm5
Member
I agree, it's a nice change as previous runs had been showing a good amount of apps runners. there is still 1 or 2 showing that but for the most part the members are south
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whatalife
Moderator
Yes, that is another issue, a HP needs to be to the NW of the system to help filter in the colder air. The cold air is there, but it's not being forced. There definitely needs to be a high cause the low and high will be working together to help bring the cold air in.
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2/17-18/1979 4" sleetstorm (Tony special).
I'm still worried about low level temps. We need either
1) massive amplification of the pna ridge
2) a high pressure to form to our northwest.
The first looks more likely but, of course, that option usually brings most uncertainties. And in a time of pattern change, the results of said pna ridge will likely be underdone at this range.
It'd be nice to get both though, still attainable.
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Thanks for the info. Hard to believe it's been nearly 40 years since ATL had a major winter event in the 2nd half of Feb.
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No its not a requirement, it helps no doubt, but there are exceptions.
Yes. That's a possible top analog.
But I was mainly talking about i20 snow events. Right through the south.
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No its not a requirement, it helps no doubt, but there are exceptions.
Also note the HP to the northeast. None of that with this system.
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I'm keeping an eye on the 11+ day system becuase
1. On the 0z GFS there is a HP to the NW and N of the system.
2. As of right now, it could be a Miller A system and it's a strong system.
3. 0z GFS shows signs of some CAD, surface temps are warm but their not showing in the 60s or 70s. Temps are showing in the 30s and 40s.
4. Ridgeing out west and to the NE. May have a +PNA and a -NAO.
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1. On the 0z GFS there is a HP to the NW and N of the system.
2. As of right now, it could be a Miller A system and it's a strong system.
3. 0z GFS shows signs of some CAD, surface temps are warm but their not showing in the 60s or 70s. Temps are showing in the 30s and 40s.
4. Ridgeing out west and to the NE. May have a +PNA and a -NAO.
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What HP? The nearest significant HP is in far far NW Canada.
There's a weak high pressure system and inverted ridge off of Chesapeake. Otherwise it wouldn't be 37 degrees in Atlanta ahead of the leading fropa!
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And besides the weak HP, the system included a phased setup. Right now, the upcoming setup does not look phased. That's why temps are progged warm.
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YW. What's amazing is that at ATL there was not one, not 2, not 3, 4, or 5 but a whopping SIX major snow or Tony storms just within the 18 year period 1885-1902!! Yes, one major snow or sleet every 3 years on average just for 2/15-28!! They were not just during El Niño but also during neutrals as well as La Ninas! During the 1880's-1910, Feb was by far King of the ATL major winter storm with far more during that month than during any other month! Interestingly, back then Feb was quite a bit colder on average vs the last 30+ years, but Jan is now about the same as it was then.
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