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Pattern February Discussion Part II
- Thread starter Shawn
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Nice little increase in the eps mean snow, still most not wintry but it is a definite step in right direction....
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whatalife
Moderator
Here's to hoping the 18z GFS brings out storm back...
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accu35
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yeah that would be great
GeorgiaGirl
Member
With how far off from the GFS the euro/eps was, ensembles that show a low trying to organize off the southeast coast is a win. Temps could be an issue, but its good the eps wants to play.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Definitely. Had the feeling the EPS could come on board soon.
What I'm going to be looking for on the 18z GFS is a further southern track of low, thickness values, placement of surface high, the ridge and looking for that low to stay consolidated and gaining momentum as it pushes off to the southeast coast. The 12z did have the system more consolidated at first then fell apart as it passed through the SE states then gaining momentum again. I'm not sure why it falls apart because the 12z GFS did have the vorticity wrapping up, especially off the coast.
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BillyMurrayWx
Member
What percentage would you give this system in becoming a winter storm for the south?
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1. The GEFS PNA prog for today for 2/14 (day 10) is at a whopping +1.7, which is the highest day 10 prog of the entire winter. After adjusting upward due to a too low PNA bias, the implied prog is for +1.85 and with the very real possibility for it to hit +2.0 based on both some of the recent PNA peak misses and a few members which exceed +2.0!
To show how high this prog is:
If the PNA gets just to +1.688, it would be the highest of any day in DJF since 2006!
If it gets to just +1.713, it would be the highest of any day in DJF since 2002!
If it gets to +1.921 it would be the highest since 1989! If it gets to 1.953, it would be the highest since 1983!
All we need is +1.796 & we have the highest in Feb since 1983!
To reiterate, one of the, if not the, highest correlations of any index to SN & cold in the SE is a +PNA.
2. The GEFS plunges the AO after bias adjustment down to -2.5 on 2/9. The last time it got that low in Feb was in 2013.
3. The EPS is progging the MJO to go into very high amp phase 8 2/12-17. The peak strength days of 2/14-6 have been exceeded in Feb only by 1988 (late month) & 3 days in mid Feb 1999. I'm not confident about the implications but will say that strong phase 8 in Feb has averaged cold in the SE fwiw.
In summary, we are about to experience the combo of an extremely rare for winter very strong +PNA, a rather uncommonly strong -AO, and a rare very strong Feb MJO phase 8 (though not all at the same exact time) all during peak winter climo for major SE winter storms. That's why I wouldn't at all be surprised if there is some very interesting winter wx in the SE at some point(s) during 2/9-2/17 regardless of how winter has been to this point. I am unable to outrightly predict that it will get very interesting but it almost seems like something has to give during this period considering the factors mentioned. We'll see! I'm still thinking that especially if 2/10 storm ends up as trivial (latest trends are saying that threat is slowly increasing), the 2/13-15 period could very well yield something during the very +PNA/very high amp phase 8/waning -AO.
To show how high this prog is:
If the PNA gets just to +1.688, it would be the highest of any day in DJF since 2006!
If it gets to just +1.713, it would be the highest of any day in DJF since 2002!
If it gets to +1.921 it would be the highest since 1989! If it gets to 1.953, it would be the highest since 1983!
All we need is +1.796 & we have the highest in Feb since 1983!
To reiterate, one of the, if not the, highest correlations of any index to SN & cold in the SE is a +PNA.
2. The GEFS plunges the AO after bias adjustment down to -2.5 on 2/9. The last time it got that low in Feb was in 2013.
3. The EPS is progging the MJO to go into very high amp phase 8 2/12-17. The peak strength days of 2/14-6 have been exceeded in Feb only by 1988 (late month) & 3 days in mid Feb 1999. I'm not confident about the implications but will say that strong phase 8 in Feb has averaged cold in the SE fwiw.
In summary, we are about to experience the combo of an extremely rare for winter very strong +PNA, a rather uncommonly strong -AO, and a rare very strong Feb MJO phase 8 (though not all at the same exact time) all during peak winter climo for major SE winter storms. That's why I wouldn't at all be surprised if there is some very interesting winter wx in the SE at some point(s) during 2/9-2/17 regardless of how winter has been to this point. I am unable to outrightly predict that it will get very interesting but it almost seems like something has to give during this period considering the factors mentioned. We'll see! I'm still thinking that especially if 2/10 storm ends up as trivial (latest trends are saying that threat is slowly increasing), the 2/13-15 period could very well yield something during the very +PNA/very high amp phase 8/waning -AO.
20-30% we'll see what the 18z GFS looks like. If the GFS has improved, I may bump it up to 30-40%.
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pcbjr
Member
How does the EPO fit into this? Asking b/c I cannot find a correlation on my composites - this is a unique set-up, to say the least ...
Gawx, you're our weather research guy, keep up the good work. Observing past events and observing current trends is the way to go. This can help predict what can happen based from past identical observations.
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pcbjr
Member
1000% 10000% Great observation!
Models are at best 50% of the equation - common sense and data analysis are equally important - though admittedly "subjective"
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Just look at the last storm thread. I think history may repeat itself in the short term. Other than that, thanks GaWx for the info you've provided us!
Parker
Member
Well I've got my eye on several cabins near gatlinburg that are between 2400-2800 feet in elevation. I would love to see this trend okay for my current area because I don't need to spend the money, but would def do it if things trended well for the mountains.
Phil,
I honestly don't have a strong feel for the EPO because I've never closely analyzed it. Is its day by day history available? Anyone have a link? My guess is that the progged +EPO is likely going to prevent any extreme plunge of Arctic air due to not as cold a source but not prevent the chance for less extreme SE cold nor prevent the chance at a wintry event or two.
From what I do know based on maps I've seen, the correlation to SE cold, especially the further SE you go including FL, is at least a bit higher for a +PNA than it is for a -EPO though I have no detailed data to analyze/prove it. Also, daily data shows a rather strong correlation between major SE wintry and +PNA. I don't know about how the -EPO fits in.
pcbjr
Member
EPO --> The negative phase corresponds to widespread cooling over central and eastern North America and the positive phase to warming. Don't have any daily history - so now you've sent me on a recon mission! My point being - it is definitely a a driver in the Pac this year and I can't recall a Pac driven season when the EPO wasn't a major player. But on to research now ....
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