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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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bouncycorn said:
There's a weak high pressure system and inverted ridge off of Chesapeake. Otherwise it wouldn't be 37 degrees in Atlanta ahead of the leading fropa!


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I don't think that very weak surface ridge had any baring on that system. If anything it actually aided WAA.
 
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OMG! multiple runs with the finger of doom through here:

gfs_asnow_seus_35.png
 
On break, just glanced at gfs, my word what a improvement. Regardless of what many ppl say about it I'm getting little more excited
 
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A stronger sfc high is certainly preferred (say 1030+), but the high could still trend stronger. Also, there have been some major SE snows when the nearby high was only at ~1020 mb including 1/1987, 2/1952, 3/1942, and 2/1885 .

By the way, the 0Z Euro is following the colder trend with stronger blocking.
 
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Who is this Spann guy I keep hearing of? Seems like he is God to Alabama.
 
Shawn said:
OMG! multiple runs with the finger of doom through here:
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gfs_asnow_seus_35.png
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LOL...What a great look! Looks beautiful to see now, but you and I know it's gonna change later today on the model runs. If only this were about 48 hrs out or less, we'd be golden! At least the Euro trended colder.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
LOL...What a great look! Looks beautiful to see now, but you and I know it's gonna change later today on the model runs. If only this were about 48 hrs out or less, we'd be golden! At least the Euro trended colder.
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some said it would change by OZ, but it improved. Keep hope alive
 
accu35 said:
some said it would change by OZ, but it improved. Keep hope alive
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Oh, i'm keeping my hope alive. Just have seen this movie play out too many times and knowing how it typically ends. Never say never though! I've learned that as well. Here's to hoping the trends continue in a positive direction for all of us.
 
Premin 6Z GFS maps suggest the storm will have colder air to work with, higher pressure to the north, be further south and be weaker. Let's see if that verifies and what happens.
 
GaWx said:
Premin 6Z GFS maps suggest the storm will have colder air to work with, higher pressure to the north, be further south and be weaker. Let's see if that verifies and what happens.
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Love the suppressed look this far out...


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GaWx said:
Premin 6Z GFS maps suggest the storm will have colder air to work with, higher pressure to the north, be further south and be weaker. Let's see if that verifies and what happens.
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Yep, good run! A good bit colder, supressed and SC bullseye! :)
 
gfs_asnow_us_41.png
love that second energy coming from the north, good run much colder. Definitely a big potential for the southeast
 
accu35 said:
gfs_asnow_us_41.png
love that second energy coming from the north, good run much colder. Definitely a big potential for the southeast
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The runs last night except for the Euro looked like a great step ahead. It certainly looks to be a changed course now. It is suppressed enough that it isn't squashed and south enough that the cold air has potential. If we see the north trend later and the cold keep coming south more we could see something major coming.
 
Timing is perfect on the 6z GFS, even the surface temps for NC look good. Suppression is good at this stage because we all know this thing will tick NW at some point. On the 6z, it's very close to phase...that would pull the surface low NW. If we don't get a phase we could also have a further North track of the energy once the ULL opens up, but that's just hard to do without risking a more northern storm track...threading the needle here, but I like the trends.

Also, perfect timing with this storm moving in overnight - surface temp minimums during this window and at least a less of a chance for sleet.


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Eps looks terrible. Trending more and more towards cutter.


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bouncycorn said:
Eps looks terrible. Trending more and more towards cutter.


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I disagree. The mslp maps might be misleading, this isn't a cutter on the EPS...there are some more north lows but they're all mostly suppressed systems. This pattern is not favorable of cutting west of the apps.



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Jon said:
I disagree. The mslp maps might be misleading, this isn't a cutter on the EPS...there are some more north lows but they're all mostly suppressed systems. This pattern is not favorable of cutting west of the apps.



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Yeah I just looked at the members. Many are suppressed but many are also cutters.

Just wondering, you don't think an early phase would lead to the system cutting? I think that's what many of the members show.


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Jon said:
Timing is perfect on the 6z GFS, even the surface temps for NC look good. Suppression is good at this stage because we all know this thing will tick NW at some point. On the 6z, it's very close to phase...that would pull the surface low NW. If we don't get a phase we could also have a further North track of the energy once the ULL opens up, but that's just hard to do without risking a more northern storm track...threading the needle here, but I like the trends.

Also, perfect timing with this storm moving in overnight - surface temp minimums during this window and at least a less of a chance for sleet.


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Yeah just at quick glance the GFS looks really close. Definitely has my interest now.
 
Jon said:
I disagree. The mslp maps might be misleading, this isn't a cutter on the EPS...there are some more north lows but they're all mostly suppressed systems. This pattern is not favorable of cutting west of the apps.



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100% agree. The systems showing on the EPS are mostly suppressed. As you have already stated we will be walking a fine line w/timing but the trends now look more doable.


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bouncycorn said:
Yeah I just looked at the members. Many are suppressed but many are also cutters.

Just wondering, you don't think an early phase would lead to the system cutting? I think that's what many of the members show.


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It would, however I don't think the phase would be that early...well, not a traditional early phase say south of TN or so. A phase about as early as you can get will probably lead to a main low track over N GA and NC, making the winners the greater VA and DCA area or NE, depending on how the system wraps up. It's hard to call what exactly would occur because we haven't seen it, with this system. A late phase could help for NC for intensification purposes. Realistically we just want the N stream digging as far south as it can with the low phasing just right, would see something similar the NE is seeing however obviously more temp issues here. It's hard. Obviously in my region in central NC I'm hoping for a bit of a phase but not too early, perfect nighttime timing and a low off the coast with maximum snowfall in my area :) but honestly I'd be happy with anyone in the SE getting this one. Sorry, rambling on while getting ready for work haha


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Keep in mind the models didn't lock into the final result of the energy interaction for the NE storm occurring today until about 3 days out or less...an incredible amount of time left and the trends are on our side for now


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Jon said:
Keep in mind the models didn't lock into the final result of the energy interaction for the NE storm occurring today until about 3 days out or less...an incredible amount of time left and the trends are on our side for now


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Yeah...That's the scary part...


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If the GFS is right an early phase won't matter much as it will not amp that much with the big block off the NE. If that big storm trends westward than the situation will change.
 
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