• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion Part II

Status
Not open for further replies.
Stormlover said:
nice to wake up to this
16699938_1585004351527217_1074034914_n.png
Click to expand...

That dies beautifully before ATL. Snowshield is holding!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
My fear is that if that 540 line drops South any earlier, we'll have Suppression City and be cold and dry.

Conversely if the 540 line stays north then we'll have a lovely rainstorm.

Am I wrong?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
0z Euro is somewhat like the 06z GFS, it's just warmer and the track is further north. On the runs yesterday, it showed it warmer with the track of low further north. This means that it could be trending towards what the GFS has been showing. Maybe on today's runs of the Euro, it will improve today or over the next few days. I'd like something good to turn out as well, cause that's such a good track of low for favorable good snows.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
ATLwxfan said:
My fear is that if that 540 line drops South any earlier, we'll have Suppression City and be cold and dry.

Conversely if the 540 line stays north then we'll have a lovely rainstorm.

Am I wrong?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I'm willing to bet anyone $100 today that Metro ATL gets either cold rain or nothing at all. So much excitement but not for us. Longing for 2011, 1993, 1983...
 
ATLwxfan said:
My fear is that if that 540 line drops South any earlier, we'll have Suppression City and be cold and dry.

Conversely if the 540 line stays north then we'll have a lovely rainstorm.

Am I wrong?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I can almost guarantee, 99.9996 %, we will be rain, instead of cold and dry! Cold and dry really should be the last of many concerns!
 
pcbjr said:
Jon - You know how I tend to agree with you, though we look at differing data to generally come up with like conclusions. I'm not disagreeing with you here - but where the heck is cold coming from? Truly asking. I don't see it. But as you know - I can be wrong! LOL
Click to expand...
I meant to post this yesterday but I never sent it...so Phil if you're listening..

Take the event about to unfold for the NE for example, on the mslp map we have a 1018 HP to the north and a 1031 HP in the central plains....and the NE about to get 12"+, why? Because of the phase with the northern stream, that's it.

We are looking at the same thing here. One shouldn't really focus on mslp HP values, it doesn't truly mean anything for this storm as we are clearly not going to have some kind of banana high or a solid wedge to help the SE with temps. What we have to rely on solely is the northern stream diving in out ahead of the surface low/ULL. There's no cold on the models when the ULL comes through because the northern stream isn't far south enough. The issue here is timing. The SE will be hard pressed to get a solution that will work out for everyone... We really need the ULL to hang back 12 hours or so AND a deep vortex to get anywhere close....problem is, also, depending on how far north the ULL ends up being, the vortex can phase with it early and a majority of us will be out of business. I don't think that will end up being the case given the suppression...but we can't have too much suppression as it leads to rain.
 
ATLwxfan said:
My fear is that if that 540 line drops South any earlier, we'll have Suppression City and be cold and dry.

Conversely if the 540 line stays north then we'll have a lovely rainstorm.

Am I wrong?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not necessarily, you don't always rely on the 540. The 540 is the typical rain/snow line. The 540 line doesn't represent suppression for a system.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
SnowHusky said:
Not necessarily, you don't always rely on the 540. The 540 is the typical rain/snow line. The 540 line doesn't represent suppression for a system.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The 850mb line is really what one should look at for the rain/snow line (ignoring in-situ shallow layers that form), not really the 540.
 
Jon said:
The 850mb line is really what one should look at for the rain/snow line (ignoring in-situ shallow layers that form), not really the 540.
Click to expand...
Yup, also, to determine winter precip, you have to factor in wet bulb, surface temps, dew point ect...it gets down to the needy greedy.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
ATLwxfan said:
That dies beautifully before ATL. Snowshield is holding!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
why anyone takes literally something over a week away is still amazing to me...the story from that is there MAY be a system to give us hope then...don't worry about where it "dies" out or where it turns to rain at this point
 
Well, for the folks in downtown ATL, it's harder for the temp to drop there. Downtown ATL holds heat in from all the cars, heat from the roads, buildings and so fourth. This is why the suburbs get colder and the counties outside of the suburbs than downtown gets colder. I can see why people are saying they will get rain in downtown cause of that reason.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Stormlover said:
why anyone takes literally something over a week away is still amazing to me...the story from that is there MAY be a system to give us hope then...don't worry about where it "dies" out or where it turns to rain at this point
Click to expand...

I realize this. I was partly joking because the model fit the narrative of our history of "close but no cigar" moments here in ATL.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
On this date in 1948, the 2nd crippling snowstorm in nearly a week smashed the northern coastal plain and tidewater regions of North Carolina, dropping up to 19 inches of snow in Elizabeth City. The combined 2-storm snow totals approached 2.5 feet in parts of Halifax, Nash, Edgecombe, Wilson, and Northampton counties. The overall setup was rather unusual for a Miller A, with very weak surface lows tracking well offshore in the midst of high-latitude blocking centered over the northeastern Pacific w/ an attendant deep upper level trough over eastern Canada and Greenland and a southeast US ridge. (sounds familiar eh?). Normally, when you see this much snow over the eastern portion state, you'd anticipate to see high-latitude blocking dominating the North Atlantic and strong &/or very strong surface cyclones just offshore, not a weak frontal wave in association w/ a bonafide overrunning event. Yeah, early February 1948 is very strange and defies most canonical winter storm setups in eastern and central NC...
February 9-10 1948 NC Snowmap.png

January 31-February 1 1948 NC Snow map.png

Jan 30-Feb 10 1948 NA z500.gif
1948021006.gif

1948020100.gif
 
Stormlover said:
how long does it take the NCEP site to update, it seems like it used to happen well before now
Click to expand...
It's usually during the 8:00 hour, but it can be very inconsistent. Maybe it's slower this run because it has to draw all those pretty colors on the snow map???
 
It shows wet snow with temps in the mid to upper 30s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
The 850mb line is really what one should look at for the rain/snow line (ignoring in-situ shallow layers that form), not really the 540.
Click to expand...
Yep Huffman has discussed this many times before and you or Shane can probably explain it but for the SE the 540 line isn't a good factor for rn/sn and good thing too. Lol
 
Next frame of the DGEX would show substantially more snow into SC/NC me thinks.
 
I love these like buttons on here, everybody taking advantage of that, LOL!! Hey if Shane, Charlie, Larry, Shawn likes something, then I know I'm good to go with liking it to lol.
 
Webberweather53 said:
On this date in 1948, the 2nd crippling snowstorm in nearly a week smashed the northern coastal plain and tidewater regions of North Carolina, dropping up to 19 inches of snow in Elizabeth City. The combined 2-storm snow totals approached 2.5 feet in parts of Halifax, Nash, Edgecombe, Wilson, and Northampton counties. The overall setup was rather unusual for a Miller A, with very weak surface lows tracking well offshore in the midst of high-latitude blocking centered over the northeastern Pacific w/ an attendant deep upper level trough over eastern Canada and Greenland and a southeast US ridge. (sounds familiar eh?). Normally, when you see this much snow over the eastern portion state, you'd anticipate to see high-latitude blocking dominating the North Atlantic and strong &/or very strong surface cyclones just offshore, not a weak frontal wave in association w/ a bonafide overrunning event. Yeah, early February 1948 is very strange and defies most canonical winter storm setups in eastern and central NC...
View attachment 51

View attachment 52

View attachment 53
View attachment 54

View attachment 55
Click to expand...
Nice! This has to be the times my dad speaks of when he says he remembers having to help dig out a path to their outhouse and like a wall of snow on each side. Lol.... I didn't believe him, you know the 'ol "walked to school up hill both ways in the snow" stories haha but as a 7 year old at that time I'm sure it seemed like walls of snow to him
 
OK, just worked off this morning. Tired but I'm staying awake for the 12z with a cup of coffee, what the heck might as well.
 
For anyone else with Time-Zone issues, go to your "preferences" and it should be there to change to Eastern or Central or whatever timezone you're in.

Here is a link that should work while you are logged in to bring it up: Link
 
metwannabe said:
Nice! This has to be the times my dad speaks of when he says he remembers having to help dig out a path to their outhouse and like a wall of snow on each side. Lol.... I didn't believe him, you know the 'ol "walked to school up hill both ways in the snow" stories haha but as a 7 year old at that time I'm sure it seemed like walls of snow to him
Click to expand...

There were a multitude of those instances in the early-mid 20th century in eastern-central NC... It's hard to believe given how crappy the winters have been in general the last several years, and the more storms I reconstruct, the more I begin to realize this fact, but events like these w/ 1-2+ feet of snow, and regular snow threats in November, as well as large accumulating snows in late October in the mountains for ex. were far more commonplace several decades ago. It's rather unfortunate that the climate has warmed significantly since then and we didnt have the capacity to track and analyze winter storms like this back in those days, I could only imagine what we would have found...
 
Webberweather53 said:
There were a multitude of those instances in the early-mid 20th century in eastern-central NC... It's hard to believe given how crappy the winters have been in general the last several years, and the more storms I reconstruct, the more I begin to realize this fact, but events like these w/ 1-2+ feet of snow, and regular snow threats in November, as well as large accumulating snows in late October in the mountains for ex. were far more commonplace several decades ago. It's rather unfortunate that the climate has warmed significantly since then and we didnt have the capacity to track and analyze winter storms like this back in those days, I could only imagine what we would have found...
Click to expand...
Yep the more of these things you post the more I realize we have sucked over the past 20 years other than Jan 00 Jan 01
 
Well another GFS run (6z) and another trend south and cooler. I wouldn't be excited yet but if something like this can hold for about two days without a wild shift I'd slowly start getting excited if I were in North AL/North GA/Upstate SC and north of there. While I don't see a cutter happening I also don't see this getting too far south.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There were a multitude of those instances in the early-mid 20th century in eastern-central NC... It's hard to believe given how crappy the winters have been in general the last several years, and the more storms I reconstruct, the more I begin to realize this fact, but events like these w/ 1-2+ feet of snow, and regular snow threats in November, as well as large accumulating snows in late October in the mountains for ex. were far more commonplace several decades ago. It's rather unfortunate that the climate has warmed significantly since then and we didnt have the capacity to track and analyze winter storms like this back in those days, I could only imagine what we would have found...
Click to expand...
SD said:
Yep the more of these things you post the more I realize we have sucked over the past 20 years other than Jan 00 Jan 01
Click to expand...

So I was reading an article the other day (Founders week at Campbell University where my daughter is a freshman), anyway it was discussing the universities beginning and how in the late 1800's when it was Buies Creek Academy one of the founders was so concerned about children's education that he would walk the kids in the community across the frozen Cape Fear River to get them to class during Winter.... I wonder if there is any validity to that statement, just seems unreal to me, that far south. Anyway sorry for the OT just passing time till the 12z suites run
 
SD said:
Yep the more of these things you post the more I realize we have sucked over the past 20 years other than Jan 00 Jan 01
Click to expand...

Even then, January 2000 was really just a small taste of what winters were regularly like in the 19th century and 20th century, and although many may think it's unusual for Raleigh to get several decent snowstorms in a row, it's not as uncommon as you may think. Oth, seeing several large winter storms evenly spaced out in every month of the winter like 1935-36 is exceptionally rare...
The winter of 1935-36 is my favorite to study in NC, simply for the fact that there were several large storms in every month of the winter and December, January, and February were all amazing months in terms of both cold and snow. It's about as close as you can get to perfection, hopefully someday another winter like this will come around...

cd152.7.52.63.39.8.34.35.prcp.png
cd152.7.52.63.39.8.34.50.prcp.png
cd152.7.52.63.39.8.35.6.prcp.png
K0YeQjSIpj.png
December 1935-January 1936 global SSTAs (HADISST, 1916-1945 base period). +PDO, warm neutral-borderline weak El Nino event, NE Pacific warm pool ("blob"), and +AMO are evident...
152.7.52.63.39.8.40.5.png
 
Jon said:
I meant to post this yesterday but I never sent it...so Phil if you're listening..

Take the event about to unfold for the NE for example, on the mslp map we have a 1018 HP to the north and a 1031 HP in the central plains....and the NE about to get 12"+, why? Because of the phase with the northern stream, that's it.

We are looking at the same thing here. One shouldn't really focus on mslp HP values, it doesn't truly mean anything for this storm as we are clearly not going to have some kind of banana high or a solid wedge to help the SE with temps. What we have to rely on solely is the northern stream diving in out ahead of the surface low/ULL. There's no cold on the models when the ULL comes through because the northern stream isn't far south enough. The issue here is timing. The SE will be hard pressed to get a solution that will work out for everyone... We really need the ULL to hang back 12 hours or so AND a deep vortex to get anywhere close....problem is, also, depending on how far north the ULL ends up being, the vortex can phase with it early and a majority of us will be out of business. I don't think that will end up being the case given the suppression...but we can't have too much suppression as it leads to rain.
Click to expand...
Jon - Thanks and yes, as always and of course I'm "listening" - but between court appearances this week!
Once again you and I have the same pragmatic optimism, just coming to the same conclusion by entering the room from different doors. I concur with your assessment and appreciate the input. - Phil
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top