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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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It's digging where we want to at 120h, just a little slow. Primary Low is out to sea but it should be a nice hit for some areas


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Its not going to be a cutter but I'm not impressed, not cold enough right now. I may be wrong but it again looks like an earlier CMC solution is coming, plenty of precip, but....

I guess I'll see after I eat.
 
Good hit for TN, WNC to central NC


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This run is an improvement, the low gained momentum earlier just as I expected.

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18Z has this low in Alabama, 12Z didn't...
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_21.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Larry, you know we love the analogs! Any good ones for this set up?
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I don't have any exact analogs right now but will say that the 2nd week in Feb "analog" of peak activity is something to consider. ;)
 
This is why this run worked, energy digging over Missouri. You'll see from my 12 panel chart I posted yesterday this is key. If you see this energy not digging here, or digging too late, it's out to sea. Got a bit lucky this run, energy looks strange...but good run!
2e7804d38585725321e6b554d3bd1e7a.jpg




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I'd like to see it colder for northern GA but we still have time for the temps to play out.

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Also, I'd like to see that high in the NE and not out to sea. That HP will cause CAD right down into northern and NE GA. If you look at the 850 temps you can see some CAD over western NC at first.

This wasn't a bad run, I just want to see it colder, and more consolidated precip way earlier.
I'm interested in what the ensemble shows.

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if I lived in Tennessee or NC I'd be really excited about the possibilities. anywhere south of there is gonna need A CRAP LOAD of work . I've always felt and even said it a few days ago that I think this was a Kentucky jackpot storm . still feel that way

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With low placement in the general right area, we need our cold. Oz should be interesting tonight.
 
Storm5 said:
if I lived in Tennessee or NC I'd be really excited about the possibilities. anywhere south of there is gonna need A CRAP LOAD of work . I've always felt and even said it a few days ago that I think this was a Kentucky jackpot storm . still feel that way

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Yes but dang
 
Storm5 said:
if I lived in Tennessee or NC I'd be really excited about the possibilities. anywhere south of there is gonna need A CRAP LOAD of work . I've always felt and even said it a few days ago that I think this was a Kentucky jackpot storm . still feel that way

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Temps will be an issue anywhere south of Tenn and NC...


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Storm5 said:
you know me . if it's close I'll be heading to huntsville

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LOL!

And when it starts a NW trend Kentucky will be in the sweet spot as you say...


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Oh look Larry, right on cue as you prognosticated 18Z brings down 1045 high into the Dakotas day 8
 
Actually turned out pretty good for NC but its tap dancing on the line of caving toward those CMC runs that I remember that had nothing outside of KY/VA.
 
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