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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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not much lol, but you see the idea of Potential!!!
 
I'm very excited as of now, perfect setup for something special crazy
 
I'm excited, but not very excited right now, cause I don't want to be disappointed. I've been disappointed enough this winter.

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Now that low hangs back longer, this gives us 8 days. Plenty time to watch
 
SnowHusky said:
I'm excited, but not very excited right now, cause I don't want to be disappointed. I've been disappointed enough this winter.

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I totally agree with ya, but hey what else is going on
 
If you're in CAE looking for a Feb 2010 type of snowstorm again, then the GFS run is almost there. Just a tad more north and it's ALL snow.
 
It's still too early to really be excited but this time, I've REALLY seen this story before, except last time snow was showing before it went to where it was suppressed. I remember that there was a good winter storm showing, than it got squashed into the gulf, and came back later.
 
accu35 said:
Honestly, I'm only watching that time frame lol
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Somewhere a few pages back, before the runs started coming in and related discussion ensued, I posted a link to a "movie" of the GFS and Nam runs (select your run) for precip type; it's not the best data source in the world by any stretch of the imagination, but it does help "visualize" what individual model panels are showing wrt precip; in case that got buried here it is again, should anyone find it of interest:
http://www.coolwx.com/ptype/
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Liking where we stand. I don't see a huge north trend but I doubt this goes that far south.

At 192 there's a little light snow near the coast of SC.
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In mid Feb (when far supressed lows have the best chance to occur per history) with a -3 AO, a +2 PNA, and an MJO phase 8 with amp of 3 just preceding it, this may very well buck the GFS trend and never trend back all that much or perhaps any NW. This is a highly unusual situation.
 
bouncycorn said:
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Ok good deal. I thought it took a while. That one was a little different in evolution. You'd think the Euro would do ok with ULLs...though it used to have a bias of holding them back in the SW a bit too long.
 
GaWx said:
In mid Feb (when far supressed lows have the best chance to occur per history) with a -3 AO and a +2 PNA just preceding it, this may very well buck the GFS trend and never trend back all that much or perhaps any NW. This is a highly unusual situation.
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this issue is gonna be if it does trend NW its because the cold press is backing off which will mean rain for most . I think at this point I'd rather take my chance with a phase .



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Storm5 said:
this issue is gonna be if it does trend NW its because the cold press is backing off which will mean rain for most . I think at this point I'd rather take my chance with a phase .



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This far south and this late in the year, no way to even consider disputing that!
 
pcbjr said:
This far south and this late in the year, no way to even consider disputing that!
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Actually, the lateness is not yet an antisnow/pro rain factor in mid Feb per climo as that is a peak.
 
If the storm verifies I believe it will have big accumulations. We seem to do very well in this time frame.
 
If the Euro gets on board today or within 3-4 days, then I'll sign up and get very excited about the possible big snow maker. I like the track of low on GFS, it just needs to come slightly further north. If it does, then we are going to get big snowfall amounts. The reason why it was being suppressed on this run is cause the vortex was pressing down further. To get even the bigger snows, there needs to be a phase which could turn out to be hard to get. And also, we haven't been seeing a phasing trend.

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Seems every year between 10th and 20th we are watching a storm that verifies. Feb 25th -28th are good dates in the past as well. I remember Feb 27th, 2004 was a good storm as was March 1, 2009 for me.
 
GaWx said:
Actually, the lateness is not yet an antisnow/pro rain factor in mid Feb per climo as that is a peak.
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I guess I forgot to mention that the lack of any real cold is the underlying basis for why I agree with Storm5 so strongly .... a phase might just get enough cold pulled down to work wonders. My bad ...
 
I of course am not for sure as I don't have the pay maps, but others are saying the Euro is showing this storm but is north of the GFS. Despite it being north, it was also trending south and cooler too.
 
Well alot of moisture from that low in Gulf the thought of 1 to 2 inches of precip with a Polar Vortex is fun to think about but Saturday/Sunday we should be hopeful getting a better feel for this system
 
I doubt we see a big northwest jump with this storm with the stuff that's going to be happening in the northeast but I don't think the storm is going to be this suppressed. Problem is, if we go back to the favorable climo track...will there be cold air?

I think we end up somewhere in between a typical southern slider track and Tampa.

Of course with the way things have gone lately, in a day or two we're going to see the PV go poof and this take a massive NW trend.
 
Looks like 12z GEFS .. many members have an idea of a storm. Most warm.
 
If the gfs and cmc could meet in the middle we would have a great storm track. But honestly, I'm excited about this threat. So many of my snows here in Northga show a storm, suppress it with good temps and come back north closer to time. Here's to hoping!
 
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