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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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SoutheastRidge said:
Just curious. What skill do the models have at the day 12 range ?
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Not much, but with the vortex coming south after the 15th-16th system, there would be a better chance at snow with the day 12+ system. The 18z GFS does have a system but it's suppressed down in the Gulf.

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Storm5 said:
you have a better chance of hitting the lottery vs the gfs hitting a day 12 storm

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Yeah, a better chance at winning free tickets lol

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I hate posting maps (which I went on a pulpit about earlier today), b/c the next frame is different, but, given a tweak or two, someone may be happy with this:

imageproxy.png


not a bad High and not a bad Low - if each can get a little stronger (if, being the operative)

Now - back to the dungeon ... LOL
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
That's all she wrote
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Thanks for this well thought statement.
Edit. Did not mean to post the well thought statement part as I thought it might be mean.
For some reason as soon as I quote someone it saves it even if I don't post it and even if I log out and then Log back in. Then as soon as I post something else the quoted statement from earlier shows up along with the new post. Anyone know how to fix this problem?
pcbjr said:
Welcome March - a week early ...
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A week early? I've had early march temps since January give or take a few cold fronts. Lol
 
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olhausen said:
Thanks for this well thought statement. I really

A week early? I've had early march temps since January give or take a few cold fronts. Lol
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trying to be nice here, in a dismal situation; tomorrow i start my realism phase ....
 
pcbjr said:
What? The entire SE?
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What I am saying is that there was probably something making the GFS go down a different path at first, but something else happened or didn't happen somewhere along the line of systems that has yet to make it to the US. I keep saying how the forecast has busted and maybe it is related, but if this run leads us in a new path I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS found an error along the way and fixed it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
What I am saying is that there was probably something making the GFS go down a different path at first, but something else happened or didn't happen somewhere along the line of systems that has yet to make it to the US. I keep saying how the forecast has busted and maybe it is related, but if this run leads us in a new path I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS found an error along the way and fixed it.
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don't wanna get bumped here - but i was/am suggesting nothing other than a dose of realism (realism i frankly disdain) - hope my comment didn't come off the wrong way! ;)
 
SD said:
you dont get a much better look than this

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png
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I really hate to put it this way - but given what we're not getting now, and given that June and July are hot as the hinges on the gates of Hades - any way to bottle and cork this up and and save it, say for July 4th? .... LOL
 
pcbjr said:
I hate posting maps (which I went on a pulpit about earlier today), b/c the next frame is different, but, given a tweak or two, someone may be happy with this:


not a bad High and not a bad Low - if each can get a little stronger (if, being the operative)

Now - back to the dungeon ... LOL
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Yes, wouldn't take much to make a lot of people happy with that look! But how many times have we said that this winter????? That's just the facts of living in the SE......................Always takes a perfect setup just to get a smell of a snowflake :(
 
This was the trend for the past 5 days on the GFS OP for that snowstorm for the NE. This shows what can happen on the goofus.


Credit- Jim Cantore

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SD said:
It wasn't just the GFS that was entirely too flat
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I know, that GIF from Jim was only the GFS and that's why I said that. Not saying that it wasn't flat on other models.

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SnowHusky said:
I know, that GIF from Jim was only the GFS and that's why I said that. Not saying that it wasn't flat on other models.

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It's certainly a nice bust for the NE to actually go from way too flat to bombogensis
 
SD said:
It's certainly a nice bust for the NE to actually go from way too flat to bombogensis
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I know it, it sucks. Wish it was us getting that snow. It could be us with the 15th-16th system only if it gets cold enough.

(I'm tired of using that "if" word, who else? Lol)

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Some pretty cool stuff on twitter about how the mcv from yesterday's storms popped convection over the gulf stream and enhanced ridging off of the NE coast

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Storm5 said:
12z gfs
acc136e302f339491e283efa49204dac.jpg


18z gfs
bdcb11038b5c5aa641b28f00bb841394.jpg



same model. unreal

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Lol I had to zoom in to see if that was for the same date. It almost looks like two completely different patterns. Unbelievable.
 
SD said:
you dont get a much better look than this

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png
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The GEFS has been consistent in that look in the LR. I'm sure we'll still find a way to screw it up.
 
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