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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Well this run was a surprise. The trend in the GEFS has not been good, moving the ridge east and thus moving the trough east. If you go to tropical tidbits and loop 500mb heigh anomalies for 18z Thursday over the last 4-5 runs, you can see the trend.

With that said, the vort map this run shows the energy digging way early by 00z Thursday, which is exactly what we need. This is basically a solution much like the image I posted last night about what we need.

TdsU4Zd.png


12z GFS - you can see the change in the 500mb height anomaly on the left due to the digging vort SE Missouri. This is the common feature with the "hit" frames above.
uX7iMaJ.jpg
 
Jon said:
Well this run was a surprise. The trend in the GEFS has not been good, moving the ridge east and thus moving the trough east. If you go to tropical tidbits and loop 500mb heigh anomalies for 18z Thursday over the last 4-5 runs, you can see the trend.

With that said, the vort map this run shows the energy digging way early by 00z Thursday, which is exactly what we need. This is basically a solution much like the image I posted last night about what we need.

TdsU4Zd.png


12z GFS - you can see the change in the 500mb height anomaly on the left due to the digging vort SE Missouri. This is the common feature with the "hit" frames above.
uX7iMaJ.jpg
Click to expand...

Good stuff...


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Jon said:
Well this run was a surprise. The trend in the GEFS has not been good, moving the ridge east and thus moving the trough east. If you go to tropical tidbits and loop 500mb heigh anomalies for 18z Thursday over the last 4-5 runs, you can see the trend.

With that said, the vort map this run shows the energy digging way early by 00z Thursday, which is exactly what we need. This is basically a solution much like the image I posted last night about what we need.

TdsU4Zd.png


12z GFS - you can see the change in the 500mb height anomaly on the left due to the digging vort SE Missouri. This is the common feature with the "hit" frames above.
uX7iMaJ.jpg
Click to expand...
Hey Jon!
Thoughts on western ridging? To me, looks not too bad, but I defer to you (you seem to always have the correct Rx - LOL) As always - Best, Phil
 
I have seen the models have difficulties before, but not to this extent, or for this long. the 0zgfs after 120hrs compared to 06z then compared to 12z seems vastly different. I vaguely remember several years ago the models having a hard time and we had a huge pattern change. I know the pacific is loaded with energy heading east, so maybe organizing their effects is a challenge?
 
12z gefs is am improvement vs 06z and 00z . still not overwhelming but it did improve

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WEATHERBOYROY said:
I have seen the models have difficulties before, but not to this extent, or for this long. the 0zgfs after 120hrs compared to 06z then compared to 12z seems vastly different. I vaguely remember several years ago the models having a hard time and we had a huge pattern change. I know the pacific is loaded with energy heading east, so maybe organizing their effects is a challenge?
Click to expand...

It's very possible we end up seeing nothing out of it but this kind of a setup is in effect, a nightmare to nail down. It involves a wave after a cutter so it may be a while before this is nailed down.
 
This event may turn out more at the last min. on the models than what they've been showing. This run is definitely a look we've seen before on the GFS. Is it headed back to the snow storm it had? Possibly, time will tell as we get closer to the event. I'd like to see that low little further south and hold it's self together as it gets closer to the Gulf. The low does gain momentum as it pushes off the coast. I'd like to see that at an earlier time.

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WEATHERBOYROY said:
I have seen the models have difficulties before, but not to this extent, or for this long. the 0zgfs after 120hrs compared to 06z then compared to 12z seems vastly different. I vaguely remember several years ago the models having a hard time and we had a huge pattern change. I know the pacific is loaded with energy heading east, so maybe organizing their effects is a challenge?
Click to expand...
It may well be that the models are having a hard time rectifying or reconciling the PNA and EPO and coming up with a solution that meets the built in algorithms - maybe.
 
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pcbjr said:
Hey Jon!
Thoughts on western ridging? To me, looks not too bad, but I defer to you (you seem to always have the correct Rx - LOL) As always - Best, Phil
Click to expand...
Not bad at all. In my chart above, this run was similar to #3...the orientation was more neutrally tilted, but you can see the centered mean heights are basically in the same location (centered over the 4 corners region)...however, it's still too far east...if the energy is a bit stronger we could still work with this orientation, but even a tad further west and the storm will go out to sea. You can see at 500mb the energy was similar, but on the "HIT" run (#3) it was more elongated towards OK. So - in order for this storm to work, we have a million options...but here's a few:
1) Jog the ridge west just a tad and keep the energy the same
2) Break down the ridge so it's "positively tilted" keep the energy the same
3) Keep the ridge the same, dig the energy a tad sooner.

Check out this run compared to 12z Thursday GFS OP which gave snow for many

12z run Today - notice how flat the ridging is out west and the energy is already digging, you can see the buckling in the heights
PckSNKS.png


Compare this with 12z Thursday
dkAUSCn.png


Now compare it with a bad run for the SE, 00z Today for instance.
A8MLsYF.png
 
I'm still on the too strong of a cold press bus. the gfs has a known cold bias. the cmc isn't even in the same ballpark and the euro isn't as cold either . something has to give. we are six days away

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The 12z GEFS mean has the low out off the SE coast just hanging out moving very slowy/stalling out. Interesting sure enough. Yup, something will give eventually. It would be incredible if the low stalled out closer to the SE coast with the cold air in place.

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Out of ~20 12Z GEFS members, I counted ~7 that had a low form close enough offshore the SE coast to bring back precip. NW enough to reach the SE 2/10. That's up from only ~2-3 on most recent runs.
 
There's four GEFS members that skew it but at least 10 of them show something, even if it's light and the mean wants to try to organize a low off the southeast coast instead of further OTS.
 
GaWx said:
Out of ~20 12Z GEFS members, I counted ~7 that had a low form close enough offshore the SE coast to bring back precip. NW enough to reach the SE 2/10. That's up from only ~2-3 on most recent runs.
Click to expand...

I still don't like where we stand w/o the Euro on board. At this pt we are in the Euro's wheelhouse imo...


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The Euro shows a low a bit off the southeast coast on the maps I have but it does so faster than the GFS. On the paid maps I doubt it shows much precip. A low is there, it's a bit early, but it's weak.
 
12z Euro, the low is there, 850 temps are an issue. I'd like to see that high closer by to allow colder air.
3940ea54788756dbe5277c43526e7ccf.jpg


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