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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Gfs continues it's hate of the 10mb pv
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Maybe better there's no storm! My TWC local forecast has a high in the 60s Friday and Saturday
 
GaWx said:
If we get the extremely rare +2 PNA, there'd be legit hope for around midmonth considering the -AO and MJO 8. Only 1 in 2,000 DJF days has had a +2 PNA (last one in 2/1983)!

I'm not giving up on 2/10 either. What I think is that there will be two opportunities, 2/10 and ~2/13-16. If 2/10 turns out be nothing, I have a feeling that midmonth is going to get mighty interesting. I think model consensus for midmonth is likely going to change and the much colder 0Z GFS for then may turn out to be the first hint of changes to come.
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Larry, great stuff! If we score a storm on any of the two dates you listed above, you will be my hero! I just see a lot of warm temps and t storms
 
This remains disconcerting - just as the NAO is finally progged to go negative, the EPO is progged to go fairly positive. Too much counterbalance, at least theoretically (although the PNA looks great).
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pcbjr said:
This remains disconcerting - just as the NAO is finally progged to go negative, the EPO is progged to go fairly positive. Too much counterbalance, at least theoretically (although the PNA looks great).
4indices.png
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And IF the EPO is the drive this winter well....


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ForsythSnow said:
Lol, it's not likely. I think things look about the same for chances of a storm as yesterday. 12Z should be the same solution or another one.
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I agree. I do know that when we get a big storm, the models usually have a better handle on the system much earlier. Huge red flag that we are going to strikeout if there's only an occasional op run or a couple of ensemble members per day that shows anything.
 
Outside of a low sparking much further west the 6z GFS was meh. And after it sparked it just scooted OTS I think.
 
Looks like the second system is coming in much further south at hr 72 than past runs. We want to see it coming in further south.

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This *could* be an interesting run if things hold the way their looking right now.

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The low is in th right spot at 108...it looks better than past runs.

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Per prelim maps: It looks like due to upper trough hanging back further west that there will be more action with the 2/10 storm on the 12Z GFS but will it be cold enough?
 
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