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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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12z CMC even has some overrunning at first, only if there was some cold air in place. We're 7 days away from the 15th, so the models will start to get a better fruition. I'd take some overrruning before the actual low gets kicked out.

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EPS certainly doesn't offer any hope either.... well it has our storm so there's that
 
Stormlover said:
You aren't kidding. That shows it very clearly.
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I do not intend this as banter, but if you use the wind map and look at model runs, you can i) "see" what the models are showing (or may not be showing - like a low that isn't depicted, for example), and ii) oftentimes question (or validate) a run or outcome based on the visual dynamics - i.e., what's happening in real time upstream and downstream (so in that sense, it may be a "tool").
 
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metwannabe said:
EPS certainly doesn't offer any hope either.... well it has our storm so there's that
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I'll take E3 for the board . Better than nothing . there are a few members that offer hope to areas west of the apps . but not many . still over a week out so we Continue the painful tracking

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Storm5 said:
I'll take E3 for the board . Better than nothing . there are a few members that offer hope to areas west of the apps . but not many . still over a week out so we Continue the painful tracking

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Oh heck yeah I'd take that one too, I had not gone out in time far enough..... just a kick in the gonads man to see that track and no cold air source.
 
I'm going back to the severe weather thread at least there my neck of the woods actually gets stuff to track...:eek:
 
I must admit, the tracking of rain storms so far has been second to none! Time to stick a fork in this one and hold out some hope for the waning weeks of winter.
 
WXinCanton said:
I must admit, the tracking of rain storms so far has been second to none! Time to stick a fork in this one and hold out some hope for the waning weeks of winter.
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Here you go, if you're looking towards March - LOL

wk3_wk4_latest_NAsfc_T.gif
 
I'm so jealous of the northeast, that their going to get snow tomorrow. A weather page I follow on FB had a snowfall map with the link to AC/DC Thunderstruck for the theme song..... :/

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ATLwxfan said:
I'm not buying that 12z GFS run. Seems too warm. Let's see.


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The cold air is in Canada; any movement is generally east for now; there may be mechanisms to move it more SE in about a week, but that is a "may be" IMHO
 
The ULL is looking good across the SW on this run. It has some interaction with the northern stream, but it's not a strong interaction.

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It's going to be another Gulf low on this run. 1035mb high coming down into the Plains. This isn't bad news, it's good.

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ATLwxfan said:
Rain is good for the drought.


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Speaking of the drought, it's looking somewhat better across the Southeast, but the lakes around here have a long way to recover. What is interesting is that nowhere in America is there an exceptional drought. If we can't get snow, give us the rain.
20170131_southeast_none.png
 
Northern stream seems a little strong this run, could be nice if the ULL slows but I'm thinking it won't...a tad bit north than the 12z..would be cool to see what a phase would do.
 
18z gfs is further SW with the H5 pattern overy the NE this run. Improvement no doubt , but still not good enough
 
Jon said:
Northern stream seems a little strong this run, could be nice if the ULL slows but I'm thinking it won't...a tad bit north than the 12z..would be cool to see what a phase would do.
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There is also much more cold air to tap into this time. Let's see if that comes south and the low gets it together. The 500mb vort looks way different this run as a whole.
 
Jon said:
Northern stream seems a little strong this run, could be nice if the ULL slows but I'm thinking it won't...a tad bit north than the 12z..would be cool to see what a phase would do.
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Yeah I bet we get at least one phased run over the next 48 hours
 
It seems that the ULL is hanging back a bit than other runs. Trough does also seem to be further west, which is good news.

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Jon said:
Northern stream seems a little strong this run, could be nice if the ULL slows but I'm thinking it won't...a tad bit north than the 12z..would be cool to see what a phase would do.
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Jon - You know how I tend to agree with you, though we look at differing data to generally come up with like conclusions. I'm not disagreeing with you here - but where the heck is cold coming from? Truly asking. I don't see it. But as you know - I can be wrong! LOL
 
pcbjr said:
Jon - You know how I tend to agree with you, though we look at differing data to generally come up with like conclusions. I'm not disagreeing with you here - but where the heck is cold coming from? Truly asking. I don't see it. But as you know - I can be wrong! LOL
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Not jon, but on this run verbatim there is actually more cold air to work with. A stronger high is also pushing down
 
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