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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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It got stuck over MT...this is different than 18z. We'll see what happens.

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Now this is a clear bad difference. I tried to find one studying between the previous run, but didn't until the 126 map.
 
Low is in Nebraska on this run already. :(
 
Last run had it in TX same time as it's in Nebraska on this run.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Thought we needed a taller ridge!? Now all of a sudden, the ridge is too tall!?
Click to expand...

I'll explain with a detailed graphic after this run, but flatter and more west is better. Tall ridge isn't going to work due to how weak the main line of vorticity is. Too tall = out to sea


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A bit of snow breaking out over SC due to the energy that just fizzles out over the SE...doesn't even dig enough for the MA or NE to cash in...


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I'm not sure that any precip survived yet but on the 144 500 MB maps it does look like the energy just dives.
 
I thought holding the energy back might help us out here since we weren't going to shear the wave as much and might get it to dig a little more

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The wave itself up to 150 looked better than previous runs but this is just odd...looks more like a clipper than a system that entered from the pacific.
 
SD said:
I thought holding the energy back might help us out here since we weren't going to shear the wave as much and might get it to dig a little more

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Click to expand...
not gonna be able to dig that much with such a flat flow

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An odd trend, but the wave starts out looking better before just poofing. Now lets see if it respawns itself OTS and just spins again...
 
This was a strange run. I'm still going to watch it over the next several days due to model uncertainty between its ensemble an OP.

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