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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Aleksey Sceviour said:
Winter is not over, we will get an event before it's over, I guarantee it! Sit back and enjoy the ride because it's coming once everyone writes it off. I've seen plenty march snows so I'm not ruling that possibility out.
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You are 23 years old and youve seen plenty of March snows ? Either you live up North or you have been dreaming a lot. I don't recall any good snows in March since 1993. The one in 2009 did produce in some areas though
 
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Storm5 said:
yep , that's why he is well respected. He explains everything and does not just drop two or three word responses . Now most of the time I'm having to scramble to do research because his knowledge is so extensive that a good portion of it goes in one eye bounces around the brain and gets rejected out the other side. Funny, one day last week i let my wife read one of his posts and she said " you understand that?" and I said " hell no , I was hoping maybe you could help " hahahaha

we should do a live show and let him just teach

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in all fairness to Webber, he is doing a great job here explaining his hypothesis, or point, in "laymans" terms and then drilling down into the tech, which is great!
 
pcbjr said:
in all fairness to Webber, he is doing a great job here explaining his hypothesis, or point, in "laymans" terms and then drilling down into the tech, which is great!
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hope my post didn't come across the wrong way. I agree 100 percent with what your saying . I was referring to a tweet he posted . But I agree, he has done a great job explaining things here and regardless if someone disagrees or agrees with him everyone can learn from his posts .

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SoutheastRidge said:
You are 23 years old and youve seen plenty of March snows ? Either you live up North or you have been dreaming a lot. I don't recall any good snows in March since 1993. The one in 2009 did produce in some areas though
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March of 2009 and 2010 gave me 3"+ both storms. Considering we're in the SE/Deep South, that's very rare, but some of our best storms have happened in March so that's why I'm not ruling that possibility out. I don't know a whole lot about weather, but I love studying it and it's one of my passions and following this forum has been very insightful and fun. I don't say much because I don't know as much as the pros on here, but I enjoy reading everyone's posts daily and tracking storms. Thanks to everyone for the knowledge and fun times I've gotten since I started tracking winter weather. Look forward to many more, and hopefully another one before this winter, or lack of, ends :)
 
I'm not crazy about the 12Z Euro. I like the 12Z GFS much better. I'm talking about the general upper level flow/pattern not a specific storm.
 
SSTs are warming some out in the Pacific, leaning towards of that El Nino, if the SSTs continue to warm, it will be active with storm systems coming along in the southern stream. We're already seeing that now on the models with two big possible storms during the 15th-16th and another one showing up during the 20th time period.

I'd expect a strong -NAO after the 16th-18th time period. Will the AO still be tanking? Possibly, we'll have to keep an eye on the blocking and see what leads up.

I don't understand why some forecasters try to predict things 2-3 months ahead of time. Yes, we can get an idea up but nothing is set in stone in the long range, even sometimes things aren't set in stone in the short range around here for winter weather.

Storm system changes the heights all the time, cause storm system's are changing track in the long range all the time. One thing leads to another, another leads to another....chain reaction.

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Storm5 said:
hope my post didn't come across the wrong way. I agree 100 percent with what your saying . I was referring to a tweet he posted . But I agree, he has done a great job explaining things here and regardless if someone disagrees or agrees with him everyone can learn from his posts .

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no - not at all - I was echoing you and adding to it.
 
Real weather weenie, A weather enthusiast who gets excited by extreme weather, but who has little or no knowledge of the science of meteorology. Weenies often inhabit internet message boards and issue "wishcasts" with anecdotes and pseudoscience. While professional forecasters examine computer models to make forecsst, weenies often treat the forecasters themselves as data sources upon which to form their wishcasts. When an extreme weather event isn't going to plan, weenies will often react by issueing "bitttercasts" which greatly overestimate the extent to which the supposed extreme weather has weakened. Weenies are very self-absorbed and emotional, and become morbidly distraught when a forecasted extreme weather event doesn't pan out in their backyard. Even if the forecast was generally correct for surrounding areas, weenies will angrily denounce the forecasters. Lol, WOW.
 
accu35 said:
Real weather weenie, A weather enthusiast who gets excited by extreme weather, but who has little or no knowledge of the science of meteorology. Weenies often inhabit internet message boards and issue "wishcasts" with anecdotes and pseudoscience. While professional forecasters examine computer models to make forecsst, weenies often treat the forecasters themselves as data sources upon which to form their wishcasts. When an extreme weather event isn't going to plan, weenies will often react by issueing "bitttercasts" which greatly overestimate the extent to which the supposed extreme weather has weakened. Weenies are very self-absorbed and emotional, and become morbidly distraught when a forecasted extreme weather event doesn't pan out in their backyard. Even if the forecast was generally correct for surrounding areas, weenies will angrily denounce the forecasters. Lol, WOW.
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are we adding this to a definition section someplace LOL
good summary!
 
accu35 said:
Real weather weenie, A weather enthusiast who gets excited by extreme weather, but who has little or no knowledge of the science of meteorology. Weenies often inhabit internet message boards and issue "wishcasts" with anecdotes and pseudoscience. While professional forecasters examine computer models to make forecsst, weenies often treat the forecasters themselves as data sources upon which to form their wishcasts. When an extreme weather event isn't going to plan, weenies will often react by issueing "bitttercasts" which greatly overestimate the extent to which the supposed extreme weather has weakened. Weenies are very self-absorbed and emotional, and become morbidly distraught when a forecasted extreme weather event doesn't pan out in their backyard. Even if the forecast was generally correct for surrounding areas, weenies will angrily denounce the forecasters. Lol, WOW.
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Not quite sure what happened to get the definition to be defined, but yep, that describes a weenie perfectly.
pcbjr said:
are we adding this to a definition section someplace LOL
good summary!
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We should!
Aside from that, the 12Z GFS seems a bit ULL happy, showing another one out in fantasy land. Is it common in this upcoming pattern to get ULLs or is it just the GFS being itself?
 
12z euro op
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12z EPS
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pcbjr said:
are we adding this to a definition section someplace LOL
good summary!
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Thanks, I found it very interesting to post. Sadly, but true their are ppl who fit this category lol.
 
That weather weenie definition is a good definition. On these weather forums, you're always going to see weather weenies posting things. It's something that you'll have to deal with. Anyway, going back on topic.

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Gfs para has a really classic miller A system for hour 210. It's suppressed and the high pressure doesn't slide South enough but overall it's very classic. Strong hp moving south from North Dakota and a strong low in the gulf.
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^Yeah, Bouncy, unfortunately as modeled the cold air isn't established as you implied before the storm moves over. The last several paras runs have had something similar. So, the para has had a string of runs with the low to the south of the operational GFS. The low has been in a near perfect spot for many well inland folks in the SE but none of the runs had the cold air in advance of the storm. My target for KATL to see snow based on historical maps is for them to have a thickness down to 546/850's below 0C. They generally don't need 540. The para has been showing around 552. So nada for now on the para runs. Get it down to 546 and we can talk snowstorm for ATL! Still plenty of time to get colder runs. The low slowing down may be a solution that would work out.
 
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bouncycorn said:
Gfs para has a really classic miller A system for hour 210. It's suppressed and the high pressure doesn't slide South enough but overall it's very classic. Strong hp moving south from North Dakota and a strong low in the gulf.
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Looks a lot like March should - not mid-Feb ... :(
I gotta get out of this office and study some weather - sanity and all ... LOL
 
SoutheastRidge said:
You are 23 years old and youve seen plenty of March snows ? Either you live up North or you have been dreaming a lot. I don't recall any good snows in March since 1993. The one in 2009 did produce in some areas though
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I agree. I am 32 and the only March Snow I can remember is 1993. I have seen flurries quite a few times in March and even a time or two in April, but nothing that would amount to anything. Just token flurries. But I also lived in California 2008-2013...so I am not sure what happened those years for my area of North GA.
 
I can see the polar vortex on this run (didn't look at the 500 MB maps on 12z until later and I did spot it on that run) but it will likely set up too late again for anything to be seen outside of a possible ULL setup, and the bowling ball look has been trending to where its less defined by the run.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I can see the polar vortex on this run (didn't look at the 500 MB maps on 12z until later and I did spot it on that run) but it will likely set up too late again for anything to be seen outside of a possible ULL setup, and the bowling ball look has been trending to where its less defined by the run.
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I'd much rather have a Miller A sliding across the northern Gulf rather than a bowling ball moving across land for the best shot based on history. Almost all of the biggest ATL snowstorms were from Miller A's going across the northern Gulf or near the Gulf coast. 3/1/2009 was a rare exception.
If we can't get low level cold air established in advance, a cold enough bowling ball may be the only chance at something major from this. But we still have a very long way to go.
 
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That's going to be a bomb in the NE when the cutoff phases with that moving into the northern lakes

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The ULL is producing it's own cold air some. There is some 0c or below readings at 850 in some spots but surface temps are still an issue. Still worth bare watching since it is producing some cold air in the upper levels. We may not be able to determine if snow will rather fall or not un till the "nowcasting" time.

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So nothing...nothing at all is gonna play out for SE looks like 3rd straight year of "Average winter weather" which is not the reason we are watching these models :( Maybe next year
 
It was a colder run for that system, maybe good trends
 
I thought for a moment that the PV was attracting this shortwave, but instead the PV just pushed it out to sea.
 
Will be interesting to see if the gfs can cook anything up with the vortex in the NE departing and that energy moving in from the pacific

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malak05 said:
which is not the reason we are watching these models
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Please do not take this in any way negative --
Watching models is not the end game - models are a tool like indices and, frankly, need to be "blended" with other resources. That's why I don't post maps too often - I get afraid someone may take them as "gospel" and not pay attention to the bigger picture
(For example - I can find one map that looks "great" or "bad" and roll it 48 -72 hours out and get a whole different read - the trend and "staying power" are more instructive (I think)) ...
But - off my soapbox now ...
 
If we could only get back the extreme (though transient) Greenland block that the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs showed. The 12Z and 18Z Greenland blocks were not that impressive as max heights aren't nearly as high.
 
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