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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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GaWx said:
Based on 6Z GFS prelim maps through 192 in Canada, look out below!
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Come on Larry! You are the eternal optimist ! Verbatim on 6z, that's a big rainstorm until maybe KY or VA , and that's a changeover after a big rain. Cold comes in behind for a day or two , just like most of winter!
 
ForsythSnow said:
We can't take models verbatim at 10 days out lol, always fails!
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Yep! Just look at the one we were chasing a week ago for this Thurday! Hammers NYC and BOS
NW trend FTL !
 
Very interested in this system. Any time there's an ULL over Texas in February, I'm game immediately. This is much better than relying on a weak wave to dig to get your system.

Euro has it hanging back for a long time, at least a day or two longer than the GFS. Issue is no cold when it finally kicks out of phases. Gfs is too fast. A mix between the two and we'd be game.
12620162d937c28cdae86371ad4f8d77.jpg


Problem is with the cold..we may just need a perfectly timed phase, but not sure how the deep SE would do with that. I'm concerned about a more severe wx look with this one, but lots of time of course.


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Tarheel1 said:
Come on Larry! You are the eternal optimist ! Verbatim on 6z, that's a big rainstorm until maybe KY or VA , and that's a changeover after a big rain. Cold comes in behind for a day or two , just like most of winter!
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Mack,
1. I'm not talking about a specific storm threat at this point. What I have been talking about for the last few days is a pattern with indices (very rare very high +PNA, lingering solid -AO, and strong Feb phase 8 MJO) in combination favoring solid cold around midmonth. Ever since I started talking about this, the model consensus has gotten colder and colder. The 6Z GFS and GEFS are about l the coldest yet for the period. As I've mentioned many times, the GFS suite normally has been having a bad cold bias this winter (example the false 2/10 storm threat). However, what I've also been saying is that per verification stats, the one time that the GFS has not had a cold bias is when it predicts a solid +PNA. If anything, it has actually underpredicted PNA strength!

Every day for the last week or so the GEFS has been predicting an uncommonly high +PNA, which has a pretty strong correlation with a cold SE US. Initially, the GFS wasn't cold but rather close to normal. However, it appears to be adjusting to that along with the continued currently strengthening -AO as well as progs to go into a solid MJO phase 8. Note also that it has recently been predicting Greenland type -NAO blocking as well.

2. It is still way too far out to get a handle on any potential storm threats due to the evolving more volatile forecast situation. However, climo does say to be wary in mid Feb for potential threats based simply on history as that has been about as active as any period throughout winter for much of the SE. So, whereas I'm still not predicting a winter storm (nobody can reasonably do that this far out), I am saying be on guard. Also, major SE snow history clearly indicates a pretty good bias toward a +PNA when they occur. Add in -AO and potentially a -NAO and you have a pretty good setup in prime climo of mid Feb. Phase 8 MJO probably helps though that is less clear to me. Add in solid cold and the threat is obviously increased.
 
Jon said:
Very interested in this system. Any time there's an ULL over Texas in February, I'm game immediately. This is much better than relying on a weak wave to dig to get your system.

Euro has it hanging back for a long time, at least a day or two longer than the GFS. Issue is no cold when it finally kicks out of phases. Gfs is too fast. A mix between the two and we'd be game.
12620162d937c28cdae86371ad4f8d77.jpg


Problem is with the cold..we may just need a perfectly timed phase, but not sure how the deep SE would do with that. I'm concerned about a more severe wx look with this one, but lots of time of course.


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Are you saying at this time you don't see this going much further south then what is being modeled now? I certainly see a lack of cold air being an issue.

And yes I understand talking about specifics at this time is hard to do.


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I love how people are sh****** on the setup next week yet spent over a week tracking this week's NE snow system . it's far better setup vs what we tracked for the last 7 days . Got the pna going up with blocking out front. It's all timing sure but that's nothing new in the SE. All we need is to slow the ULL down or speed the NS up . Much better look vs what we just spent over a week tracking

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Storm5 said:
I love how people are sh****** and the setup next week yet spent over a week tracking this week's NE snow system . it's far better setup vs what we tracked for the last 7 days . Got the pna going up with blocking out front. It's all timing sure but that's nothing new in the SE. All we need is to slow the ULL down or speed the NS up . Much better look vs what we just spent over a week tracking

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We have words censored?
 
whatalife said:
Are you saying at this time you don't see this going much further south then what is being modeled now? I certainly see a lack of cold air being an issue.

And yes I understand talking about specifics at this time is hard to do.


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Not sure if you're talking about snow or the upper level low going more further south, but if it holds back and phases with the cold some northern gulf state areas can win out. I don't see it any more south than where it's modeled in the image I posted...timing could help...a later phase with the most perfect vortex/confluence swing down could keep it more south certainly than it is being shown on the gfs...so yeah still time for the snow itself to trend south, but it's been a fast flow lately so not sure a NW trend wouldn't start anyway. But like you said, too far out for specifics


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Storm5 said:
I love how people are sh****** on the setup next week yet spent over a week tracking this week's NE snow system . it's far better setup vs what we tracked for the last 7 days . Got the pna going up with blocking out front. It's all timing sure but that's nothing new in the SE. All we need is to slow the ULL down or speed the NS up . Much better look vs what we just spent over a week tracking

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Lol who is Doofus on it? Yeah I mentioned it's a better setup so I agree.


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Jon said:
Not sure if you're talking about snow or the upper level low going more further south, but if it holds back and phases with the cold some northern gulf state areas can win out. I don't see it any more south than where it's modeled in the image I posted...timing could help...a later phase with the most perfect vortex/confluence swing down could keep it more south certainly than it is being shown on the gfs...so yeah still time for the snow itself to trend south, but it's been a fast flow lately so not sure a NW trend wouldn't start anyway. But like you said, too far out for specifics


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Just the low itself was all I was speaking of...Thanks...


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Storm5 said:
not you Jon, the normal trolls that pop in, drop the same lines and leave thinking they are adding to the conversation

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I have a feeling that I'm ignoring one poster in particular that you are referring to. What's the stance on banning a poster like that? Just curious on how you will handle the trolls and pot-stirrers. Thanks!
 
Well, if there is going to be a south trend with fantasy storms it almost always occurs with under-forecasted blocking. This one has a chance. All eyes should be focused on the confluence in the NE with future runs.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Well, if there is going to be a south trend with fantasy storms it almost always occurs with under-forecasted blocking. This one has a chance. All eyes should be focused on the confluence in the NE with future runs.
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Definitely don't want to watch that allow the system to become a cutter. As mentioned, maybe this one could become something good since the pattern looks decent in that time frame, especially with the +PNA.
 
pattern mid month does look interesting to me.... big bowling ball ull just nilates western half of Tennessee on the 0zgfs last night... got ways to go still... interesting none the less
 
Figured we'd see a decent north atlantic block show up at some pt w/ a formidable Pacific MJO pulse... Greenland-Baffin Bay block progressively growing stronger on the EPS. We're trending in the right direction, granted this pattern looks more favorable for the MA-NE US vs the SE US atm.
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packfan98 said:
I have a feeling that I'm ignoring one poster in particular that you are referring to. What's the stance on banning a poster like that? Just curious on how you will handle the trolls and pot-stirrers. Thanks!
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Truth is, everyone's opinion is welcome even if that means it's negative all the time . If everyone agreed every single time it would boring.

With that said , we have ways to discourage people from being obvious trolls. Yes we send them PMS and yes we will warn people . If people are clueless like bigstick was and ignore the PMS and warnings then yes we will ban them in a heart beat . But, we don't want to fall into the category of being like other places if you get my drift .

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Yeah, we'll definitely need to keep a close eye on the evolution of the tropical Pacific over the next several weeks in the wake of this MJO pulse... The thermocline already more suppressed than normal over the central Pacific, a decent WWB induced by the ongoing Pacific MJO burst would likely be enough to excite a downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave...
wkxzteq_anm.gif
 
Storm5 said:
Truth is, everyone's opinion is welcome even if that means it's negative all the time . If everyone agreed every single time it would boring.

With that said , we have ways to discourage people from being obvious trolls. Yes we send them PMS and yes we will warn people . If people are clueless like bigstick was and ignore the PMS and warnings then yes we will ban them in a heart beat . But, we don't want to fall into the category of being like other places if you get my drift .

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Very well said and Thanks!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, we'll definitely need to keep a close eye on the evolution of the tropical Pacific over the next several weeks in the wake of this MJO pulse... The thermocline already more suppressed than normal over the central Pacific, a decent WWB induced by the ongoing Pacific MJO burst would likely be enough to excite a downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave...
wkxzteq_anm.gif
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Is that good for snow?
 
Storm5 said:
Truth is, everyone's opinion is welcome even if that means it's negative all the time . If everyone agreed every single time it would boring.

With that said , we have ways to discourage people from being obvious trolls. Yes we send them PMS and yes we will warn people . If people are clueless like bigstick was and ignore the PMS and warnings then yes we will ban them in a heart beat . But, we don't want to fall into the category of being like other places if you get my drift .
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Thanks for your reply. I'm sure it can be difficult at times to moderate. The biggest issue I've seen on several forums is that one or two people try to dominate every thread. They reply with one liners after every post that add nothing to the conversation. In my opinion, that is not respecting others or the spirit of the board. These threads should not become a person's personal twitter feed for their random thoughts. That's my opinion anyway. Thanks for everything you have done to get this forum off on the right foot!
 
Rain Cold said:
Is that good for snow?
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It usually takes a few months for an equatorial kelvin wave to cross the entire pacific basin once it's generated, therefore it's not likely to have a significant impact on this winter (if at all), but could have significant implications for the 2nd half of the upcoming spring, summer, hurricane season, and perhaps next winter. Given the obvious propensity for low solar activity, it would be something if we could get a central Pacific El Nino in concert w/ an easterly QBO next year...
 
If I don't start to see a south trend on that 15th-16th system, then I'm passing that system. I mean, there might be some winter weather at the very northern fringe of moisture and some back side light snow.

Since this is an ULL and there is some colder air to work with to the north and I'm going to keep an eye on the upper levels for that cold core. As we know, ULLs can bring surprises.

The 15th-16th system reminds me of the system we had when that severe weather was going on in south GA and FL. That LP was an ULL and it was a strong low. I'm also keeping an eye on for the 20th-23rd time frame.



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SnowHusky said:
If I don't start to see a south trend on that 15th-16th system, then I'm passing that system. I mean, there might be some winter weather at the very northern fringe of moisture and some back side light snow.

Since this is an ULL and there is some colder air to work with to the north and I'm going to keep an eye on the upper levels for that cold core. As we know, ULLs can bring surprises.

The 15th-16th system reminds me of the system we had when that severe weather was going on in south GA and FL. That LP was an ULL and it was a strong low. I'm also keeping an eye on for the 20th-23rd time frame.



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like the ole saying goes... upper level lows... are weather mans woes... hard to predict
 
It's too bad that there may be a better pattern setting up in the 2nd half of Feb. Too bad we couldn't get that in January or the 1st half of Feb. The deeper we get into Feb the more climo works against us here in GA. I've always said Feb 15 is the end of winter here in GA so we have 8 days to go.
 
Depending on how the blocking is to the north, 15/16 could be further south in the future but what really matters is where the ULL goes as long as it sets up. Since there isn't much cold air what is going to matter period is where it tracks.

I'm unimpressed as I don't like ULL setups due to my past but I'm going to continue to try to be unselfish and with the way this winter has been a ULL setting up is probably the best bet.
 
That system showing up 20th time period, the 0z EPS also has that as an ULL. The blocking is in better positions for something better to turn out with that system.

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SD said:
Not trying to poo poo the upper low as it could work out but to me it really has the look of an Archambault event
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A what ? I just looked up Archambault and this is what I came up with:
Archambault, is the largest music retailer in the province of Quebec, Canada, as well as a major retailer of books, DVDs, periodicals, musical instruments, sheet music, games, toys and gift ideas.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
A what ? I just looked up Archambault and this is what I came up with:
Archambault, is the largest music retailer in the province of Quebec, Canada, as well as a major retailer of books, DVDs, periodicals, musical instruments, sheet music, games, toys and gift ideas.
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"Results of the statistical analysis suggest that cool-season NE precipitation tends to be enhanced during positive-to-negative NAO and negative-to-positive PNA transitions, and suppressed during negative-to-positive NAO and positive-to-negative PNA transitions"
 
tennessee storm said:
the stronger this upper level can get... the better off we be... cause they create their own cold air source
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But the stronger it gets, unless their is blocking, the further north it will go. As long as something keeps it south, someone could score. Otherwise, severe weather is coming instead.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It usually takes a few months for an equatorial kelvin wave to cross the entire pacific basin once it's generated, therefore it's not likely to have a significant impact on this winter (if at all), but could have significant implications for the 2nd half of the upcoming spring, summer, hurricane season, and perhaps next winter. Given the obvious propensity for low solar activity, it would be something if we could get a central Pacific El Nino in concert w/ an easterly QBO next year...
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Thanks! You'd think we'd be in an easterly QBO phase next year, so I guess we have that going for us....
 
ForsythSnow said:
But the stronger it gets, unless their is blocking, the further north it will go. As long as something keeps it south, someone could score. Otherwise, severe weather is coming instead.
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Hmm, could anyone look and see how strong the 3/1/09 ULL was? Because I remember it moving SE that day to around Columbus and then moving NE
 
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