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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Per the Euro weekly maps I see, the best setup and coldest week in absolutes (not anomalies) at both two meters and at 850 mb was week 4 (2/27-3/5). During this week, there is a -NAO/-AO along with split flow providing the potential for a cold high to pass by to the north while decent moisture comes from the WSW and overruns any potential low level cold air that can make it down. Precip. is near normal, which is more than wet enough in late Feb/early Mar.

Caveats:
1. Week 4 isn't cold per se per my maps, which show near normal at both 2 meters and at 850, but there is a warm bias and the -AO/-NAO pattern would support the chance for cold.
2. The Euro weeklies keep showing a strong -AO/-NAO during weeks 4-6. I hope this isn't due to a bias, especially considering how elusive has been a sustained -NAO!
 
GaWx said:
Per the Euro weekly maps I see, the best setup and coldest week in absolutes (not anomalies) at both two meters and at 850 mb was week 4 (2/27-3/5). During this week, there is a -NAO/-AO along with split flow providing the potential for a cold high to pass by to the north while decent moisture comes from the WSW and overruns any potential low level cold air that can make it down. Precip. is near normal, which is more than wet enough in late Feb/early Mar.

Caveats:
1. Week 4 isn't cold per se per my maps, which show near normal at both 2 meters and at 850, but there is a warm bias and the -AO/-NAO pattern would support the chance for cold.
2. The Euro weeklies keep showing a strong -AO/-NAO during weeks 4-6. I hope this isn't due to a bias, especially considering how elusive has been a sustained -NAO!
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4 weeks from now, both Sav and G'ville will be in near summer mode :(
 
I'm looking over the 12z Euro EPS and that system showing up during the 15th-16th is an ULL that has a cold core. The only problem is surface temps. But, an ULL that has a cold core can cool the surface temps off rather quickly. It may change but that's what the 12z EPS run has from today. This could be a feature to watch for on future runs.

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pcbjr said:
4 weeks from now, both Sav and G'ville will be in near summer mode :(
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Yeah pretty much getting there lol. Per SAV history, the last few days in Feb. into the first week in March is the latest they can realistically get significant wintry precip though odds are very low regardless. I've found no more than about 4 of them going back well over 200 years. So, that has been no higher than about a once in 50 year occurrence for that period. They have a much higher chance for that to occur during the 2nd week in Feb. though even that has been only about a once in 20 year occurrence.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah pretty much getting there lol. Per SAV history, the last few days in Feb. into the first week in March is the latest they can realistically get significant wintry precip though odds are very low regardless. I've found no more than about 4 of them going back well over 200 years. So, that has been no higher than about a once in 50 year occurrence for that period. They have a much higher chance for that to occur during the 2nd week in Feb. though even that has been only about a once in 20 year occurrence.
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found this in here today - change it to your local - pretty good history
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/History.aspx
 
and for laughs
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Wow at the 0Z GFS! Winter is not even close to being over if this run has the right idea. I do think the GFS does better than normal when the PNA is strong. That includes less of a cold bias because, if anything, it actually has tended to slightly underdo +PNA's.
 
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If the idea of a cold core low is true, while there will be people that get sore luck, that's going to put everyone in the game depending on where it tracks. Where it tracks over gets a good hit on this run.
 
GaWx said:
Wow at the 0Z GFS! Winter is not even close to being over if this run has the right idea. I do think the GFS does better than normal when the PNA is strong. That includes less of a cold bias because, I'd anything, it actually has slightly underdone +PNA's.
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wow your not kidding

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00z cmc has the same idea m it's about 6 too slow with northern stream this run

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The run to run variability is hilarious. Getting downtrodden over a torch is only good for about 6 hrs. After that you better check yourself before you wreck yourself.


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ATLwxfan said:
The run to run variability is hilarious. Getting downtrodden over a torch is only good for about 6 hrs. After that you better check yourself before you wreck yourself.


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thing is this look that all globals have will hold in general . with the blocking in place the press will keep the system south. met said it earlier today this is a look that could favor a little south trend

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Not getting excited yet for that system showing up during the 15th-16th. I'll start looking in depth more over the next several days or so.




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I know it's the CMC, but has the low placement as GFS
 
This idea is a good one if it were to come to fruition but it's like playing with a lottery ticket. With a ULL, sometimes you get pasted and sometimes you're under a WSW and not even see one flake.
 
I think 20-22 could be interesting (timing will change with it that far out). I don't want to get ahead of myself. Just putting that time frame on the table. The pattern we'll be going in, will allow more frequent cold blasts over the east.

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After the ULL goes by, it looks like to me it almost formed a 2nd low off the SE coast on 2/17.

Moral of the story of this run, the 0Z CMC, as well what indices continue to tell us: get plenty of sleep over the next week or so because you may need it for midmonth! And keep in mind that this is the tail end of the most active period for many in the SE per climo/history.
 
GaWx said:
After the ULL goes by, it looks like to me it almost formed a 2nd low off the SE coast on 2/17.

Moral of the story of this run, the 0Z CMC, as well what indices continue to tell us: get plenty of sleep over the next week or so because you may need it for midmonth! And keep in mind that this is the tail end of the most active period for many in the SE per climo/history.
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Nice post Larry, I hope this works out
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
That system around the 16th looks like a bowling ball on the 500 MB maps up to 222.
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Oh yeah, it's a bowling ball on 12z EPS. H7 has a -10c core and down at 850 is 0c with surface temps in the 40s/50s

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00z gefs is all in the 15th -17th with the general setup. Timing of the NS is key need it a little faster. good setup but it's all timing . Hopefully the NS isn't late.



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Tarheel1 said:
Does the cold and snowy pattern come after this!?
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As was the case in January, this ULL undercutting the SE Canada ridge will likely mark the onset of the Pacific jet break down and we'll probably see renewed anticyclonic wave breaking and upper level ridging attempt to dominate northwestern North America and the northeastern Pacific as we turn towards March (-EPO (& eventually another -WPO surge), and if the overall succession of this very redundant pattern progression this winter holds true yet again, any cold/snow is liable to remain transient here, and I expect this to remain the case at least until more definitive evidence arrives that suggests otherwise. I definitely would be more concerned about severe wx than wintry wx atm in the SE US...
 
I'd love to get excited but a week ago the gfs showed a monster storm that was going to happen this Thursday and we all know how that turned out. Oh well let's hope the euro follows suit and then we can all get excited.

9f4f9b36b65839970f9a86508f524c13.jpg



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olhausen said:
I'd love to get excited but a week ago the gfs showed a monster storm that was going to happen this Thursday and we all know how that turned out. Oh well let's hope the euro follows suit and then we can all get excited.

9f4f9b36b65839970f9a86508f524c13.jpg



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