Pattern February Discussion Part II

[SnowHusky]

The 12z NAVGEM has the idea of that secondary low. The 12z CMC has the low, the GFS kinda has it, the GEFS has the low at first weakening as it moves into the SE. We have more models showing evidence of that secondary low. So with that said, I have no idea what the Euro is doing. It has the disturbance and it's further north. Also what doesn't make since about the 12z Euro, it shows light flurries/SNW SHWS right underneath the HP at hr 150. How is that even possible?

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[GaWx]

If the Euro were to suddenly start showing the low over this weekend, this forum would go apesheet. However, the Euro is still pretty far away from doing so and the odds of that occuring are not high. One thing that may be keeping the door somewhat open for now is the strong -AO coming mid next week.
By the way, the 12Z JMA is more like the Euro.

 

[bouncycorn]

If the Euro were to suddenly start showing the low over this weekend, this forum would go apesheet. However, the Euro is still pretty far away from doing so and the odds of that occuring are not high. The one thing that may be keeping the door open for now is the strongly -AO coming mid next week.
By the way, the 12Z JMA is more like the Euro.

Models often flip without warning. I don't think we'll see a slow evolution on the ecmwf. I think if it does go towards other model consensus, it'll do it suddenly.


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[GeorgiaGirl]

This isn't a great setup but with the way this winter has gone, it's unfortunately likely the best we can do.

 

[bouncycorn]

This isn't a great setup but with the way this winter has gone, it's unfortunately likely the best we can do.

It's honestly not a bad setup if what could happen happens.


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[SD]

It was a great setup on the GFS now its a mess

 

[accu35]

Sometimes we get strong signals on models for a winter storm up to the day of, and bust. I have seen over the years models struggling with showing something up until 5 days out and it becomes a storm. Not saying this is going to do the same but saying even with not alot of support, we still have a few days to see if we can get some agreement. Any ways will see wht happens

 

[SnowHusky]

Lol, even the weekly has the disturbance, intensifying off shore of the Mid-Atlantic about 50-100 miles or so.

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[bouncycorn]

Sometimes we get strong signals on models for a winter storm up to the day of, and bust. I have seen over the years models struggling with showing something up until 5 days out and it becomes a storm. Not saying this is going to do the same but saying even with not alot of support, we still have a few days to see if we can get some agreement. Any ways will see wht happens

And the ones that show up as storms closer to the event are usually too far south/west on early runs


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[accu35]

18z rolling, let's see what happens

 

[whatalife]

18z rolling, let's see what happens

#fail


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[Storm5]

It's honestly not a bad setup if what could happen happens.


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thats like saying the drought isnt that bad if it rains

if someone said draw three setups to score in the southeast during the winter this would be like 7th or 8th on the list

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[bouncycorn]

thats like saying the drought isnt that bad if it rains

if someone said draw three setups to score in the southeast during the winter this would be like 7th or 8th on the list

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This is the optimum setup for heavy snow in the southeast. This setup is not too far from what some of the GFS runs hinted at.



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[bouncycorn]

This is the optimum setup for heavy snow in the southeast. This setup is not too far from what some of the GFS runs hinted at.



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In fact, if you look at the whole NA view, there's a low in NE Canada.


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[whatalife]

thats like saying the drought isnt that bad if it rains

if someone said draw three setups to score in the southeast during the winter this would be like 7th or 8th on the list

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Trolling? LOL!


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[pcbjr]

Do you remember the I Love Lucy episode when Lucy and Ethel take a job at the candy factory, working on the conveyor belt, and all seems OK at first, then the belt just speeds up and it's disastrous with the candy going everywhere?
Sorta reminds me of the progression of model runs lately ... sadly comical ... LOL


If anyone wants to look at the skit (it's about 3 minutes) - here's a link - I'm not posting video in the discussion thread:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=lucy+and+ethel+chocolate+factory

 

[Storm5]

This is the optimum setup for heavy snow in the southeast. This setup is not too far from what some of the GFS runs hinted at.



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the ridge on that image is much further west vs the setup we have now. that is no doubt a nice look . too bad our ridge isn't that far West

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[SnowHusky]

This is the optimum setup for heavy snow in the southeast. This setup is not too far from what some of the GFS runs hinted at.



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What model is that from?

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[Storm5]

maybe the 18z gfs will bring the goods

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[bouncycorn]

What model is that from?

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That's just a composite MSLP anomaly of the top 20 snow events in North Georgia.


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