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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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I'm going to guess that the EPS are going to look a little better but we'll see...


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trough is still too far east regardless . we will have to wait and see if the eps improves

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I'll have to take a look at the Euro when I get the data. It takes it a little bit longer on Accu Pro. But, it sounds like slight improvement on Euro from what y'all are saying.

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whatalife said:
I'm going to guess that the EPS are going to look a little better but we'll see...


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We had two members with any substantial snow in CAE on the last run.
 
olhausen said:
I'm sure they'd be willing to share if we asked.
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If this holds true, they'll have nothing but excess water to share:
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12z eps is worse than the 00z run . Wants no part of any possible system next week

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Comparing the 12z GFS and 12z Euro OP up at 500mb, the trough is digging deeper on the 12z GFS than the 12z Euro. With what the GFS shows up at 500mb makes more since because with a strong cutter like that the trough will be digging deep. And also, with a strong Arctic HP this will push that energy southward of what the 12z GFS is showing.

The GFS does have some strong energy at 162, I'm not sure why the low isn't gaining momentum. I checked the jet stream max winds, the max winds are blowing 120kts (about 140 mph).

The way the jet stream comes down, the low would ride along the jet from the Plains down to the Gulf coast crossing the FL/GA line. We seen that track of low before on the GFS yesterday.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Comparing the 12z GFS and 12z Euro OP up at 500mb, the trough is digging deeper on the 12z GFS than the 12z Euro. With what the GFS shows up at 500mb makes more since because with a strong cutter like that the trough will be digging deep. And also, with a strong Arctic HP this will push that energy southward of what the 12z GFS is showing.

The GFS does have some strong energy at 162, I'm not sure why the low isn't gaining momentum. I checked the jet stream max winds, the max winds are blowing 120kts (about 140 mph).

The way the jet stream comes down, the low would ride along the jet from the Plains down to the Gulf coast crossing the FL/GA line. We seen that track of low before on the GFS yesterday.

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IMO the gfs is overdoing the strength of the high . it has a know bias of being too cold .

this is not a good setup for a big storm . Could we luck up and get something out of it , yes. But this is far from a really good setup .

euro says no, eps clearly says no . IF something is gonna happen there needs to be a drastic change in the models by Sunday . we are right at 7 days now .

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ATLwxfan said:
Margusity says winter is gone by mid February.


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Lol! We are all done! Here come the 90s and severe weather by March! In seriousness, I don't trust anyone from Accuweather anymore, but looking at the long range forecasts, maybe he is right. Too early to tell what March may bring. If we get an arctic blast in March, someone is going to boo him.
 
I want Snow here in South Carolina!! Lets face it you guys Euro Is king and Gfs will fall too Euro like always!!! :(:(:(:(
 
ATLwxfan said:
Margusity says winter is gone by mid February.


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JB says March 1960 analog/ Robert seems to have basically thrown in the towel! That's about two gloomy and doomy posts in about a week from him! Good to have some consensus from the pros
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I want Snow here in South Carolina!! Lets face it you guys Euro Is king and Gfs will fall too Euro like always!!! :(:(:(:(
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I think I trust GFS consistency more than the Euro's this year. The GFS brought the Euro to terms last storm if I remember correctly. If the ensembles are all over the place, that is a good thing since they will find a solution eventually.
 
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