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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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ForsythSnow said:
Don't forget to mention the GFS itself has had a low show up around that time frame as well, but warm and a little too far north for us to get snow. At least it is a sign for the pattern to look better, hopefully.
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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png
you wouldn't be talking about this would ya?
 
accu35 said:
Your right, but if models still advertise this, I think it's worth keeping a eye on around that time frame.
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Oh yeah sure enough, specially if it trends colder, which it may with that +PNA spike.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
0z Euro EPS also has that system, it's also too warm for anything.

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gfs_asnow_seus_41.png
this ain't much still far out, but if we get 998 MB low tracking south, with cold air just north of us, it wouldn't take much for this to trend colder
 
Vols1 said:
Is the snow threat gone for Tennessee on Thursday?
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Not completely, eastern TN may get some snow flurries as the system pushes off to the north and east. The boarder of east TN/western NC may get some accumulating snow but outside of the mountains won't see much in the way of anything, if anything.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Not completely, eastern TN may get some snow flurries as the system pushes off to the north and east. The boarder of east TN/western NC may get some accumulating snow but outside of the mountains won't see much in the way of anything, if anything.

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Thanks! That sucks. I'm in middle tn lol
 
BHS1975 said:
Any know a good site for looking up past high and low temperatures?


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In the Weather Links thread, under Weather History (Set Your Location and/or Time Frame) are a couple; not sure if this is what you're looking for, but it may get you the info you're seeking
 
I think the feather in the hat that we're dealing with is a potential GOA low despite all of the other good teleconnections we might get (other than a -NAO). If that comes true, that low is going to pump mild air over much of the US. Maybe it's weaker and doesn't hurt as much though.
 
Storm5 said:
3fce3df9783d837bb3a512d4e3e940a0.jpg


incoming east coast special

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Yeah long range not looking too shabby, yeah I know it's long range but indices suggest this MIGHT have legs.... it's not going north with the blocking in place by then
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah long range not looking too shabby, yeah I know it's long range but indices suggest this MIGHT have legs.... it's not going north with the blocking in place by then
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yep that's a really good look for your area and the east coast

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Storm5 said:
yep that's a really good look for your area and the east coast

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Agree but I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the rare occasions where this trends colder and even a little south to get more in play, good pac ridge, some blocking and nice 50/50 low.... I think this time frame is gonna be our best bet (as I push all chips to the middle)
 
The track is almost perfect and you would think it would be colder but looks like a lp around the US/Canadian, I guess our infamous GL low, is screwing with temps

edit: I say ALMOST perfect track, certainly a little further south would be ideal.... I think Larry probably has statistics about the best lp track for SE Miller A's
 
metwannabe said:
The track is almost perfect and you would think it would be colder but looks like a lp around the US/Canadian, I guess our infamous GL low, is screwing with temps

edit: I say ALMOST perfect track, certainly a little further south would be ideal.... I think Larry probably has statistics about the best lp track for SE Miller A's
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I know ARCC agrees but I think the GLL gets over played every year . but I see what your saying . I agree , this might be the last interesting time frame this winter

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that type of 12z gfs solution fits the pattern we are rolling into so it will be fun to watch

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Storm5 said:
I know ARCC agrees but I think the GLL gets over played every year . but I see what your saying . I agree , this might be the last interesting time frame this winter

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Agree, I probably should've stated verbatim it's what probably messes with temps and as your next post mentions it fits the pattern so definitely something to watch.
 
metwannabe said:
The track is almost perfect and you would think it would be colder but looks like a lp around the US/Canadian, I guess our infamous GL low, is screwing with temps

edit: I say ALMOST perfect track, certainly a little further south would be ideal.... I think Larry probably has statistics about the best lp track for SE Miller A's
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I watched my Falcons blow a 25 pt lead last night. Can't wait to see how this continues to get better looking only to fail us...LOL!

I agree though...This fits the pattern...


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great agreement on the 12z gefs of the cutoff moving through the deep south next week. Have to get the NS in play
6d5a58e9d2d2a0d52dc185da2fd8638b.jpg

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This is that time period that was showing snow in Mexico earlier on lol. The actual problem isn't the GLL I feel, it's that potential GOA low that might throw a monkey wrench into things. All of the teleconnections are good but temps are milder than what they'd be because of this feature.
 
Storm5 said:
great agreement on the 12z gefs of the cutoff moving through the deep south next week. Have to get the NS in play
6d5a58e9d2d2a0d52dc185da2fd8638b.jpg

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I think even the CMC has it too...


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It's really not a bad setup at all. I hope the cutoff doesn't bury and rot away like the cmc has

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GeorgiaGirl said:
This is that time period that was showing snow in Mexico earlier on lol. The actual problem isn't the GLL I feel, it's that potential GOA low that might throw a monkey wrench into things. All of the teleconnections are good but temps are milder than what they'd be because of this feature.
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agree - no real cold air to play with
 
SD said:
It's really not a bad setup at all. I hope the cutoff doesn't bury and rot away like the cmc has

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That's a non-American model bias, that's what I'm going with right now.... Lol
 
If we can get the northern steam through before the cutoff ejects we will be good

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