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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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gfs_asnow_us_28.png
much better
 
Yeah, it survives a little bit. Man, this is a good setup for a winter storm. I'm still wondering if a low will spin up off the SE coast.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Yeah, it survives a little bit. Man, this is a good setup for a winter storm. I'm still wondering if a low will spin up off the SE coast.

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Click to expand...

Looks like one will, but OBX, coastal at best. They might even be too far West.
 
Here is a plus, that HP is at 1040. But the system is gonna pop too far off the coast for most if anyone.
 
I think this system has potential to pull more moisture into it. Maybe GFS still having issues lol
 
The high pressure was much weaker early on this run. I don't buy the sudden strengthening and plunge south. Around hour 132 the High is about 4 mb lower than the 6z run (1028 vs. 1032) over N. Dakota. It rapidly strengthens to 1036 in the next few frames. It that doesn't happen, or doesn't drop quite as far south (50-100 miles), then there will be a more significant storm. How many times have we seen the GFS overpower the northern stream energy? It's a known bias.
 
There is no good way to say this...That was ugly and it ain't happening...


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And here's your low. Way out there. This has begun showing quite a bit, even on Para.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png
 
Well, there's our winter storm poping up east of the Bahama Islands lol.

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Shawn said:
Here is a plus, that HP is at 1040. But the system is gonna pop too far off the coast for most if anyone.
Click to expand...
Call me crazy but I like where I sit right now.... if anything can survive and develop it will trend NW, how much is left, just how far NW will it need to go but hey I've seen crazier stuff. Then again Dr. no may remind us there isn't a system at all and blow smoke in our faces
 
Another GFS run where a big storm in Canada just makes the low sit and spin out in the sea for a while...
 
And here is your CMC, different, but warm:

can.png
 
Shawn said:
And here's your low. Way out there. This has begun showing quite a bit, even on Para.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png
Click to expand...
I don't buy that low placement based on the trough orientation earlier in the run. Around hr 159 the energy is right off the GA coast south of Charleston. I'll take my chances and don't think it will drift SW to this position. Once again, we've seen this look for years with the GFS.
 
For what it's worth the CMC 12z run has the low and takes it across South AL/South GA much better moisture return compared to the 12z GFS just cold temps aren't there
 
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