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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Low should pop slightly closer to the SC coast this run. But meh. Okay snow hit in parts of TN.
 
whatalife said:
It's over guys...LOL


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Yep, time to say fork it! Which is really sad, cause after 2-3 days of cold, it's torch city! Maybe next year
 
If you actually look at this and 12z's runs, they are starting to slowly move back to yesterday's runs.


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Everybody, GFS is very famous for the Northwest Trend, so if system stays suppressed now we will likely see at Northwest trend like always!!
 
accu35 said:
Poof
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whatalife said:
It's over guys...LOL


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Tarheel1 said:
Yep, time to say fork it! Which is really sad, cause after 2-3 days of cold, it's torch city! Maybe next year
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Lol at everyone. It is just a cycle of the GFS, it will be different again at 0Z and everyone will either be excited or more disappointed. It actually didn't look bad for TN and AL. We still have a long way to go before we can actually declare it lost.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol at everyone. It is just a cycle of the GFS, it will be different again at 0Z and everyone will either be excited or more disappointed. It actually didn't look bad for TN and AL. We still have a long way to go before we can actually declare it lost.
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It will be different at 0z, but no other model has the storm either! That's the bigger concern!
 
The trough orientation is a bit too far east for a storm to really spark. And the GFS is now showing this low spin just OTS again.

I definitely don't mind seeing suppression but again...is there really going to be a storm and can the trough trend west some? We're still at that point.
 
whatalife said:
THIS^


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Yes, CAE lost their 2 members even on hte 12z EPS.

Anyone taking this threat seriously outside some trailing energy sparking some flurries inland are going to be let down outside of TN. Even Eastern NC/coast will likely get screwed.
 
Shawn said:
Without Euro/EPS support I do not believe this threat is going to pan out for us.
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Still too far out. The GFS usually finds storms and whether they will exist or not. It seems that this system may very well end up existing, but where and how strong is the question. It could be anywhere between a decent storm and a squash city, but I wouldn't be all in on the Euro/EPS solutions at this time frame. I may go back and read the entire thread from the last storm to see how the Euro was just to see if it was like this. I remember the GFS was all over the place, but had a suppressed storm. But then again, I may just be missing something important. 0Z will for sure be something to watch.
 
With the last storm, the Euro always had a warm solution and it did end up being off but it was not badly off. Like I can't remember right off but there was some Euro solutions that showed no snow at all-trace in Georgia outside of the NE mountains and that ended up not being true. It wasn't a bad miss, but it was a miss.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
With the last storm, the Euro always had a warm solution and it did end up being off but it was not badly off. Like I can't remember right off but there was some Euro solutions that showed no snow at all-trace in Georgia outside of the NE mountains and that ended up not being true. It wasn't a bad miss, but it was a miss.
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6 days out, the ecmwf and eps were just terrible.


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Just to put things into perspective, the models didn't pick up on the blizzard of 93 in till 5 days before the event. This is a way different setup but I believe that things can change at this last minute and unexpectedly. Specially in the weather field.

Just like the last storm we had in early January. I was expecting to get 2-4" of snow and I got only a dusting. This could turn out to be more than what the models are showing right now.





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bouncycorn said:
6 days out, the ecmwf and eps were just terrible.


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yes but the eps still had about 25 percent of the members showing a storm . the eps didnt fully get on board until around day 5. not the case this go around there is no eps support


I'll always ride the ensembles at this lead . yes they have been wrong before but there is a reason the eps is the highest scoring ensemble set

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Not suggesting in any way, shape or form this could or would happen, but it's interesting how warm the SE was in early Feb 1899 before the gates unlocked (wish I could figure out how to post a PDF abstract on that whole phenomena). Admittedly 1899 was a whole different set up with it being super cold in the NW & Canada, but the point being, warm does not mean no cold and warm does not mean things can't or won't change. Just looking for a driver here, if the car even has an engine, and wheels ...
 
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