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Pattern February Discussion Part II

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18z gefs is much improved as far as members trying to generate something
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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Just to put things into perspective, the models didn't pick up on the blizzard of 93 in till 5 days before the event. This is a way different setup but I believe that things can change at this last minute and unexpectedly. Specially in the weather field.

Just like the last storm we had in early January. I was expecting to get 2-4" of snow and I got only a dusting. This could turn out to be more than what the models are showing right now.





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That's wrong. It was actually picked up and we'll modeled at 7+ days out
 
I'd want nothing other to be wrong. Lets see if GEFS is onto something!
 
How are the means even showing snow when models have 0!?
 
E3, E8 and E20 is reasonable to my thinking.

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Playing off an old Ricky Ricardo ditty:

Let us put the models together
See which one is smarter
Some say the GFS
But I say "No"
Euro has the GFS like a puppet show
It ain't me
It's the models that say
Winter's got the models confused
In every way .....


(working from Men Smart/Women Smarter)
 
I just picked up some good coffee for tonight's 0z runs. After seeing that GFS ensemble, we have to start seeing the storm again on the OP.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
That's right, I thought it was 5 days before the event. Thanks for the correction.

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watching the interview, they seen a system, beyond 5 days out but not how strong the low was going to be. 5 days before the storm, they picked on a signal for significant snowstorm/Blizzard. Your right they did see something 7/8 out just didn't see the Blizzard until 5 days
 
I think we saw another increase in GEFS members that show something on this run, even if it's light. I didn't see future slides on the E20 but I can kind of see why it'd show snow because its a big low pressure system.

The big issue with the last storm in the long range was the idea of a cutter with the way it looked but then about a day or two later, a pattern change got thrown into the mix to switch everything up. We're closer now than we were then though.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I think we saw another increase in GEFS members that show something on this run, even if it's light. I didn't see future slides on the E20 but I can kind of see why it'd show snow because its a big low pressure system.

The big issue with the last storm in the long range was the idea of a cutter with the way it looked but then about a day or two later, a pattern change got thrown into the mix to switch everything up. We're closer now than we were then though.
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Agree - really do - indices support it; I'm still trying to figure out what we are close to - know what i hope but thelogic side of my brain keeps sayin' "take a rest"
 
SD said:
I saw E3 in a dream once. The warm nose was amazing

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I'd go a little bit deeper w/you on that but I'm afraid of what I might find


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Didn't the GFS have the last storm too far north at first, and then suppressed, before it did it's NW thing?
 
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