None of the models (including ensembles) outside of maybe the ICON, which was absolutely stellar with the 1/3/18 storm, have been doing well overall.
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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
None of the models (including ensembles) outside of maybe the ICON, which was absolutely stellar with the 1/3/18 storm, have been doing well overall.
packfan98
Moderator
Agreed! The ICON in the midrange 3-7 day and the NAM 3km for the short range has definitely been the winning combination this year.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I find it hilarious how so many on americanwx tried to claim the ICON was crap a month or so ago lol even after I said a bajillion times it shares the same slow physics parameterizations as the Euro. Its data assimilation, resolution, parameterizations, etc are superior to the GFS which becomes evident esp inside the medium range (day 5-6). The RGEM nailed the CAD event yesterday and the NAM of course was very respectable. I'll have to investigate further into what could be attributing to the HRRR's bias to erode CAD too quickly but it's no better than the GFS in that regard. I'm sure the mixing or boundary layer scheme may be leading to overmixing which also might be amplified by its p-type algorithms in specific situations
Stormlover
Member
5-10 inches of rain in north Alabama over next two weeks
packfan98
Moderator
I am hopeful that the HREF will be a great short range tool to replace the SREF and add to our short list of good models. I've heard you mention it. I also saw some mets from the NE mention how well it did identifying mixing issues on one of their storms this year. Do you have any more information about it, or when it will replace the SREF?
When even the cold biased GEFS has the SE US near normal to warmer than normal averaged out over the next 15 days, it isn't a good sign for cold prospects. Are we going to end up with a La Nina style SE Feb after all?
Brent
Member
total model bust here on temps, unexpected arctic air lol
A few days ago the Euro had 70s and pushing 80 now, the GFS had no freeze even yesterday, it was well down in the 20s
and even now a struggle to get much above freezing(the forecast is still around 50, glwt)
A few days ago the Euro had 70s and pushing 80 now, the GFS had no freeze even yesterday, it was well down in the 20s
and even now a struggle to get much above freezing(the forecast is still around 50, glwt)
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Unfortunately, I don't have an exact time table when that would occur (even if they provided a date it would likely change anyway), but I wish they would find a replacement to the SREF soon esp one w/o an appreciable wet bias (which is attributable to the ARW members in a majority of cases). The HREF is an update to the Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO) but it's really not integrating any new models, it's just taking what we already have (a few NAM ARW & NMMB members, a NAM nest and the NSSL model) and meshing those together to create a high res ensemble that updates in real-time. The HREF is okay but we're essentially just getting polished garbage on the whole. In the sense that it's more refined and condensed than what we currently have, it's not bad but otherwise eh. What we really need is a suite of new high res models, and Europe is kicking our butt in that department.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/98Annual/webprogram/Paper334406.html
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Keep hope alive! Courtesy- North Georgia Weather
At 34° in Cleveland TN
ForsythSnow
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I don't believe in SSW events. Also, that map looks like a West Coast dream not an East Coast one.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It has to star with west coast or Rockies trough, then bleed east! The bleeding won't start till midmonth, then end up here 1st week in March!
I don't believe in splits and SSW either, but what else we got? The next 15 days look like Tom Brady as a receiver!
blocking?
For my area the ICON has been horrible. The 2 storms in January that we received 9 inches of snow from it was awful. It never had snow within 300 miles of me. Not on any run. I wonder if it performs better in certain areas ??
The ICON was the first medium range model to have the 1/3/2018 surface low that was near Grand Bahama Island move NNE and hugging the coast instead of NE further offshore thus causing it to predict a major coastal winter storm way earlier than the others (including Euro), which had only light amounts. This was a huge win for the ICON. Once within the NAM range it also then started having the low move NNE. So, it also did well..
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Like I've said in a post before, in my case when I've looked at it, it's been absolute trash on temps for me and it corrects later. Like there was one time where the 0z run initialized with me at 40 degrees and that was not even close to correct. Did VERY well on QPF with the NC special IMO but it was trash with temps until almost go time.
pcbjr
Member
Been trying for days to find something that looks a bit "good", and it would have to end up being this:
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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All the models , except for GFS , have MJO going nicely into phase 8
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The MJO is taking its sweet time to run its course through phase 7, this is obviously contributing to the warmth being forecast the next couple weeks, but we're going to keep this WWB on the dateline going through at least the 3rd week of February. Definitely starting to wonder how big this oceanic Kelvin Wave is going to be, an MJO pulse this intense lasting this long over the west-central Pacific is a little disconcerting. We'll find out soon enough in 2-3 weeks if this kelvin wave is beefy enough to push us close to NINO territory by late spring and/or if further coupling occurs.
Our ENSO base state is likely going to change, how much is uncertain, but this La Nina we're in now is probably living on borrowed time.
Our ENSO base state is likely going to change, how much is uncertain, but this La Nina we're in now is probably living on borrowed time.
Clayton
Member
We're running out of time. All this stratosphere warming SO I crash, etc. Is giving false hope and it seems nothing can give us cold and another winter storm. Is there any hope? Regardless of what u think of JB, he's the one that taught me that soi crashes usually bring a trough in the East and south. Have you ever noticed that? What hope do we have regardless in your opinion?
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So if this verifies, we could have a small window in phase 8 starting some time around the 16th?
Sorry but all of this winter is over crap is just crap. It's February 5th and no models will tell us what happens beyond mid-month. For a reminder, here is February 26, 2015. Not the greatest winter of all time either.... (Adairsville, Ga)
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's certainly possible but we are a long ways off from that even now. What's more intriguing to me here is the fact that the MJO has slowed down in recent NWP forecasts in phase 7 and by an appreciable amount at that and its remaining more amplified than forecast, there must be something in the background that they just aren't seeing. I'm personally becoming highly suspicious that this MJO pulse is already beginning to tilt the scales towards a neutral-warm ENSO as we speak and that these changing initial states are hard for the models to resolve, much less forecast. We'll just have to wait and see how big this downwelling Kelvin wave is once it comes into view in about 3 weeks or so, but given the longevity and intensity of the westerly wind burst this MJO pulse is generating, I'd hedge my bets on it being big one that's capable of killing this La Nina off and w/ any additional forcing, potentially flipping us into El Nino conditions down the road. While it remains to be seen if we can churn out an El Nino event the next several months or so, we're taking adult steps in that direction and the slowing of the MJO in the central Pacific is contributing to this rationale because it prolongs the westerly wind bursts which generate Kelvin Waves, resulting in (you guessed it) bigger downwelling Kelvin Waves that suppress the thermocline and warm the surface water of the Equatorial Pacific.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This might be more applicable to the ENSO thread, but the current Western Pacific MJO event is comparable in terms of amplitude and time of the year to the MJO events that preceded the 1997-98 & 2015-16 super El Ninos. I'm not saying that's necessarily going to happen here or that we're going to definitely get an El Nino next winter, but boy oh boy we are making the right moves at the right time of the year to trigger one.
If you look at the far bottom left hand corner, you can see that the TAO buoys are already picking up on the big downwelling Kelvin Wave that this MJO event has triggered which could go onto warm the entire equatorial Pacific. It's certainly arguable that the polar vortex split and easterly QBO both played their part in destabilizing & cooling the near-equatorial tropopause which helped instigate this MJO pulse in the first place which could eventually go on to kill our La Nina, etc. It's fun to see how everything is connected.
If you look at the far bottom left hand corner, you can see that the TAO buoys are already picking up on the big downwelling Kelvin Wave that this MJO event has triggered which could go onto warm the entire equatorial Pacific. It's certainly arguable that the polar vortex split and easterly QBO both played their part in destabilizing & cooling the near-equatorial tropopause which helped instigate this MJO pulse in the first place which could eventually go on to kill our La Nina, etc. It's fun to see how everything is connected.
Stormlover
Member
how can you not believe in them? they happen
Stormlover
Member
winter is over..blah blah...good grief..why come on here if that's what you are going to say?
Kylo
Member
Your call for an above normal mid-January though end of February looks really good. It looks bleak for any cold prospects the next two weeks.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
They never seem to produce anything but disappointment.
The remainder of the month doesn't look that good at the moment unless something springs up after mid month unexpectedly. Sure, the PNA goes positive and the AO goes negative, but is it going to be long enough to do anything? Have to wait, but I think we've used all our potential for a big storm.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'm not sure SSW events help and I know that the Polar Vortex splits don't really help at all.
Also Webb, thank you for the MJO explanation. So it appears that if we go in Phase 8 at all, it might just be brief... Quite the change from just over a week ago since Phase 7 is generally warm. So it looks like February is cooked until late if at all.
Also Webb, thank you for the MJO explanation. So it appears that if we go in Phase 8 at all, it might just be brief... Quite the change from just over a week ago since Phase 7 is generally warm. So it looks like February is cooked until late if at all.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I'm glad we're flipping to a Nino pattern, that makes for a very quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The MJO may actually spend some significant time in phase 8, all I'm saying is trying to provide some explanation for why it's slowing down in phase 7 and raise the alarm that this could be setting us up for a flip to an El Nino event if other forcing aligns. The last part is the most uncertain but very relevant to our weather/climate variability the next year or two and worth discussing
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I wouldn't mind a weak-moderate one in general occurring at all. It's a strong one that'll have me go bleh. But from what I was reading (although not that much outside of here), I didn't think that'd mean a quiet hurricane season.
Not that I wouldn't mind a tame severe and hurricane season, to be honest. I think we all need a slow moving depression down the road but we sure don't need another Irma.
pcbjr
Member
Tropical weather is part of the natural cycle; it's what charges our aquifer, keeps FS's lake serving several million people, cools the summer heat, and does other wonderful things. But storms with a name ... Nahhh ... we've had enough; wind does nothing but prune trees that don't need it, and damage property. Lots of subdued lows, spatially spread across 4 or 5 hot months, that spin into rain and don't get a birth name ... with you 100%
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And hopefully a wetter, cooler summer?
Thanks for noting this and it would be a nice win for the chosen analogs (sorry Mack), but I'd rather be wrong in this case. It certainly isn't worth it to be warm just to make the analogs look good. Let's hope things change on the model consensus soon. I'm not predicting that but I remain hopeful.
That was a fun storm even if I did switch to rain for awhile. The flakes stuck from the beginning and it poured for hours. If I recall Tennessee had racked up storm after storm the weeks before and it seemed like the cold would never make it far enough south. Anything can happen all the way to mid March in my book.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
February 2015 had a few winter events that I can recall, most light but two big ones, the Northeast Georgia ice storm, and the significant snow event in North Georgia. There may have been more that I was forgetting that happened in TN. I think the last one was an ULL that completely screwed over Atlanta proper with a dry slot after they were too warm at the beginning. I can't lie, I was laughing at the radar that had Atlanta completely blanked out on that system during that night...and iirc, after the early rain, it was cold enough for it to snow there too but the dry slot kept them from anything at all.
That's the story with ULLs though, you can win big but then lose big. A lot of areas in Atlanta proper won big on 3/01/09 and they lost big on 2/25/15.
Edit: Here it is, in all it's glory, but truthfully, being dryslotted is for the birds. Atlanta was at 35, but it was very much workable if they didn't get that awful dryslot. Instead of getting snow and possibly heading down to freezing, it was miserable, mid 30s light drizzle because of that dry slot.
That's the story with ULLs though, you can win big but then lose big. A lot of areas in Atlanta proper won big on 3/01/09 and they lost big on 2/25/15.
Edit: Here it is, in all it's glory, but truthfully, being dryslotted is for the birds. Atlanta was at 35, but it was very much workable if they didn't get that awful dryslot. Instead of getting snow and possibly heading down to freezing, it was miserable, mid 30s light drizzle because of that dry slot.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even if this winter were to end right now, it really hasn't been all that bad in NC. We've seen virtually every type of winter storm here in NC, a classic "piedmont gradient" storm, an ice storm, a few token events, and a storm that clobbered the central-eastern piedmont bringing RDU ~6" of snow, and at least one significant storm (or more) has occurred in December, January, & February. Plus our temps thus far this winter have been below normal, can't really complain. I'd be content with us switching into tornado season right now. One more big dog in late February or early-mid March would turn this into a legendary winter for a good portion of east-central NC, the likes of which we haven't seen on a regular basis since the 1960s.
Brent
Member
Nam has an ice storm here tomorrow night
I'll believe it when i see it
Although it was closer to reality with temps today than the other useless models
I'll believe it when i see it
Although it was closer to reality with temps today than the other useless models
olhausen
Member
February 2015 was the greatest February I’ve ever experienced winter weather wise in my 12 years of living here. Leading up to the 16th we had nothing but a few dustings. That all changed in mid February as my backyard personally saw 3 snows of 2 plus inches with two of them at at least 4 inches and one freezing rain event all in a matter of 3 weeks time. I actually had 2 inches of snow fall on top of 3 inches of snow that had fallen 2 day’s earlier to give me my first 4 inch snow. Then we had freezing rain fall on top of that a few days later. We had a lot of sleet with the first storm which kept the snow on the ground for 2 weeks combined with the cold temps. When it was all almost gone we got dumped on with 4 more inches of snow on March 6th I believe. Portland Tennessee which is a ten minute drive north of me managed all snow for the first storm and pulled off 9 inches of it to my 3 because of so much sleet in my area. I’m also certain parts of north eastern Tennessee got a devastating ice storm during this time period.