Per 12z Euro maybe something for the SE to watch 2/4-2/6.
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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Nice having cold air like that so close by. Lots of ways to tap into it even with a little bit of an SERJoe B says thaw's about over
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Good to see the Euro following the GFS, too.
Round Oak Weather
Member
U thinking it stretches back through Georgia too?
What is Euro showing for Ptype for 2/4-2/6?
Storm5
Member
Storm5
Member
Well central Tennessee gets a little snow before switching to rain
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Eh, needs some work for our area. Western portions of south has some hits from members...also some hits in portions of NC.
Round Oak Weather
Member
We got time to make it happen
Euro continues to not look nearly as cold as GFS , hopefully will catch up soon!?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep this is what happens when a) your model can't forecast the MJO (wet bias and interaction w/ topography cause aritificial dampening of the MJO in the EPS vs reality) b) the model can't handle orographic forcing from the Rockies (because the terrain in the model is smoothed), thus you end up with a model solution that tends towards a pattern which directly opposes the standing planetary waves so you end up with anomalous troughs over the Rockies where there are ridges in the means (trough over the Rockies for ex) and c) it can't handle extreme wave breaking upstream, these large anomalous waves disperse energy downstream which then changes the pattern and intensity of the waves here over North AmericaSaw this on Twitter. Look at horrible the eps has been vs verification . This was the day 11-15 period from January 19.
What SER?
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pcbjr
Member
Nothing like skating to the edge ...
Another system @ day 9-10 on Euro!!
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Euro is trending toward the GFS, it's going to turn cold folks. At least for the upper south and parts of the mid-south it looks like a safe bet. I expect the southeast ridge to continue to weaken as we get closer in time. It's just the trend this year. Many in the deep south already have had one good snow, maybe you get lucky and get another before the year is out. But it's always a lot harder to get cold and snow that far down south.
Storm5
Member
If you were keeping up you would know it's already doing that
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Euro has cold chasing moisture/backside flakes on the 2nd here and for some other areas.
I wouldn't call it a storm. Pure rain for everyone but the mountains on the onset. Just a system.
Stormlover
Member
actually they get a good snow, not just a little
Stormlover
Member
Storm5
Member
I'd take the 12z Euro 500mb at face value. Huge improvement vs previous runs
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Storm5
Member
Now we have all globals with a big shot and an active storm track next week
Does that mean we see something ??? No it does not . But as Eric , jon and others have pointed out the models are slowly correcting to a colder stormier pattern
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Does that mean we see something ??? No it does not . But as Eric , jon and others have pointed out the models are slowly correcting to a colder stormier pattern
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