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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GaWx said:
Repeat after me: "The last week in February". ;);)
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Should also say repeat after me the 312 hour GFS will never verify regardless of what it's showing. Lol.
 
pcbjr said:
Please consider this as a 2nd reply to your post.
A brief war story.
I represented a landowner whose property was severely polluted by a petroleum company. The State required a full remediation; the dig was begun on 2/26/04; the location was about 30 miles ENE of Gainesville. The engineers and others on hand to monitor were from Canada. They flew in, with "summer" clothes, expecting "Florida weather", as it had been quite warm, somewhat akin to now. The remediation dig took 3 days. On day 1 it rained. On day 2 it sleeted all day, and was so cold that the digital cameras the Canadians brought down to document actually froze. On day 3, it was bitter raw.
None of that weather was forecasted ...
So, strange things can happen ... even when least expected ...;)
Just not every day or year mind you ... :cool:
... and probably not this year ... o_O
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Yeah, even way down in the Phil corridor, I wouldn't bet the farm against wintry precip until after the first week in March based on 2004, 1993, 1986, 1980, 1955, 1954, 1869, and 1855 among others. The 1955 case is especially interesting as Gainesville had this if you can believe it on the 29th...yes the 29th of March:

1955-03-29 42 33 37.5 -26.9 27 0 1.23"

Gainesville just missed and got a miserably cold significant rain, but Live Oak and Jax got a trace of wintry! The bigger point though is that if Gainesville can get this cold of a rain as late as 3/29, imagine what COULD happen there 3-4 weeks earlier if all of the 7's on the slot machine were to happen to line up even with the 2 F or so of global warming since 1955!
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, even way down in the Phil corridor, I wouldn't bet the farm against wintry precip until after the first week in March based on 2004, 1993, 1986, 1980, 1955, 1954, 1869, and 1855 among others. The 1955 case is especially interesting as Gainesville had this if you can believe it on the 29th...yes the 29th of March:

1955-03-29 42 33 37.5 -26.9 27 0 1.23"

Gainesville just missed and got a miserably cold significant rain, but Live Oak and Jax got a trace of wintry! The bigger point though is that if Gainesville can get this cold of a rain as late as 3/29, imagine what COULD happen there 3-4 weeks earlier if all of the 7's on the slot machine were to happen to line up even with global warming since 1955!
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Thanks for the prayers!
 
Storm5 said:
I'm still repeating the second week so I refuse to say anymore weeks lol

At this point I'll take the logical approach which is to expect nothing and hioe for a surprise

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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Yep, I expect nothing, but am hoping for another event. Never know what March could bring or the end of the month.
 
I'm gonna let these cliff divers jump, cause come the third/fourth week in February, I hope they own a condo in Key West.
 
I chose not to feed the trolls... a block takes care of the problem for me :) In other news, the forecast high busted here today. I reached 61 earlier, back down into the 50s now as we have full sunshine out right now and it was supposed to be cloudy all day. Bottomed out at 28 last night before the temps warmed to the mid/upper 30s by daybreak. Looks like some much needed rain heading in for tomorrow... I'll be happy with that for now. What happens going forward, well, I am not sure anyone really knows for sure no matter how much they may claim they do. We'll just have to wait and see and I am just fine with that! :)
 
Well, like I said, we can have big jumps in temps, and we did. It hauled butt up to at least 69 at the closest major station after bottoming at 30.

Edit: Actually 72 lol. 40+ swing...was it even that dry? sheesh.
 
18z GFS has shifted into the "interesting" phase for the first time in a while after 240hrs. I also notice it is trying again to really pump ridging over Greenland and the pole later on. I wonder if this is the first step towards Webbs point earlier.
 
NWTNWX said:
Y'all should come enjoy tonight with me. 2 inches of rain forecast at 32/33 degrees. Is there anything worse ?
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Nope not really

32 and a thunderstorm near the airport moving this way. At least there's hope I'll see some lightning:weenie:
 
To add onto the above about the models struggling. Below is today’s EPS for the 6-10 vs what it had 5 days ago for the same period. Granted, neither are great but still hoping for another chance end of February into March.

CF024956-DD24-4B80-8ACD-2612CBA7D6E3.png 9F317104-4AF9-466D-8204-2040B4F697C8.png
 
Looks like both the GFS and Euro trying to get colder in the East late in the runs... think after this warm rainy spell into mid-month we finish off Feb at least BN temp-wise. Whether or not any deep cold and snow is in the offing is up in the air.
 
Tornado Warning for Paulding County Ga, SE in winter time you never know what your gonna get
 
GEFS 11-16 looks close to how the past week was. Big PV low over North/Central Canada, ridging just off the coast and a block trying to build. EPS isn't any better. Rather disappointing way to end February but we look to get out of this drought.
Feb1-5.gif

GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 384.png
 
Kylo said:
GEFS 11-16 looks close to how the past week was. Big PV low over North/Central Canada, ridging just off the coast and a block trying to build. EPS isn't any better. Rather disappointing way to end February but we look to get out of this drought.
View attachment 3860

View attachment 3861
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Didn't somebody say a ridge all around through half the world couldn't happen? Looks like it in that model! Sad end to winter
 
Can someone do some searching and find/post a map with blue colors in the southeast? I need a pick-me-up. Thanks
 
The GEFS can’t even get the 10-day right, it’s not going to accurately predict the 11-16 mean heights for the NH.

Tweeted this last night


And sure enough the model corrected the trough.

08f6c5b9a003f65fdbccbaeac256dcdf.jpg


The positive thing I do see out of that 11-16 day mean in the quote is a stout -AO, which models have also caught onto the last 1-2 or so

3f24fdf8427de7f16d7a765c3a04c029.jpg

51f84fde80c2f5a3b8e580b38f22cb6c.jpg

b5cf990feb3d282a632af3f9643f87ba.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Tarheel1 said:
Didn't somebody say a ridge all around through half the world couldn't happen? Looks like it in that model! Sad end to winter
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That’s not the problem, ridge axis is to far west and PV low to far north. That’s per the GEFS and EPS, they could be wrong.
 
Jon said:
The GEFS can’t even get the 10-day right, it’s not going to accurately predict the 11-16 mean heights for the NH.

Tweeted this last night


And sure enough the model corrected the trough.

08f6c5b9a003f65fdbccbaeac256dcdf.jpg


The positive thing I do see out of that 11-16 day mean in the quote is a stout -AO, which models have also caught onto the last 1-2 or so

3f24fdf8427de7f16d7a765c3a04c029.jpg

51f84fde80c2f5a3b8e580b38f22cb6c.jpg

b5cf990feb3d282a632af3f9643f87ba.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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GEFS has been, so far, incorrectly trying to take the AO negative and PNA positive. Yes, models could be wrong but doesn’t mean it will correct to cold in the southeast.
 
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