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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Jon said:
The GEFS can’t even get the 10-day right, it’s not going to accurately predict the 11-16 mean heights for the NH.

And sure enough the model corrected the trough.

The positive thing I do see out of that 11-16 day mean in the quote is a stout -AO, which models have also caught onto the last 1-2 or so
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The SOI has really tanked as well. Many signs point to a window of opportunity. Nobody seems to have much hope because it's getting late into our winter season and the models just don't seem show anything compared to the decent look of the teleconnections. Hopefully, the operational models will catch up and start showing something better over the next week of runs.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
#WinningView attachment 3862
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RDU is 79 in the image you just posted...

That’s why mean temperatures are important here and why looking at operational temp maps that far out doesn’t verify well.

Op: 79F
GFS ensemble mean temp: 54
GEFS warmest member: 66
GEFS Inner Quartile Range (25-75%): 45-63F
5170c373138840c022d46962b2bbcc07.jpg


That kind of warmth is highly unlikely.


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Kylo said:
GEFS has been, so far, incorrectly trying to take the AO negative and PNA positive. Yes, models could be wrong but doesn’t mean it will correct to cold in the southeast.
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Yeah I don’t think it means cold southeast (more like climo for now), and we’d have to see if models continue to hold trend, it’s just not a torch. I do think a +PNA will form but that’s just me.

Euro is the first operational to trend up in the PNA as of last night.
95478a39732fbbc41e549028ba08c0d4.jpg


I looked and it seems both the Euro and GFS have tried to dip the AO and were wrong. We’ll see.


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Jon said:
Yeah I don’t think it means cold southeast (more like climo for now), and we’d have to see if models continue to hold trend, it’s just not a torch. I do think a +PNA will form but that’s just me.

Euro is the first operational to trend up in the PNA as of last night.
95478a39732fbbc41e549028ba08c0d4.jpg


I looked and it seems both the Euro and GFS have tried to dip the AO and were wrong. We’ll see.


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The bigger concern in the long range ensembles is that the trop PV tries to consolidate towards Alaska. Blocking does try and form from Scandinavia but the trop PV is messing up the pacific pattern. If, and that's a big IF, the EPS and GEFS are correct about this then that would be pretty much winter over for us in the south. The time it would take to get out of that pattern would take us into March.

Still have 3 weeks left in February and then maybe another 10 days into March where realistically Raleigh could see snow. Outside of another 83 or 93 type fluke big storm.

GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height 336.png

GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height 384.png
 
packfan98 said:
The SOI has really tanked as well. Many signs point to a window of opportunity. Nobody seems to have much hope because it's getting late into our winter season and the models just don't seem show anything compared to the decent look of the teleconnections. Hopefully, the operational models will catch up and start showing something better over the next week of runs.
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I don't get it either. I keep waking up and checking the ensembles and expecting positive changes and it's not happening. I am probably just being impatient I guess or naive.
 
Kylo said:
I don't get it either. I keep waking up and checking the ensembles and expecting positive changes and it's not happening. I am probably just being impatient I guess or naive.
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It's interesting for sure. Almost every variable has to be positive for us to get into a productive pattern. It only takes one fly in the ointment to screw everything up (ie. crappy pacific, no cold air on this side of the pole, etc...). I haven't really seen anyone talk about why the pattern is not producing a better setup with this look. I'm sure someone will figure it out. It's not sunspots this year.
 
GEFS must have heard my incessant whining. Just need the pac ridge to go up with a stout -EPO.

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_fh312_trend.gif
 
The GEFS looks good for mid month on from what I just looked at on the temp anomaly. Ik along ways out but it looks to be good. EPS was totally opposite tho
 
Tarheel1 said:
Didn't somebody say a ridge all around through half the world couldn't happen? Looks like it in that model! Sad end to winter
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Yes I did and it's also a GEFS 11-16 day forecast, name one EPS/GEFS coast-to-coast torch that they've been advertising on end for the past few weeks beyond day 6-7 that's verified, I'll be waiting...
 
HM is unwavering in his notion of the development of a -NAO later in February and I'm going to back him up on this one given what I posted yesterday on the MJO-NAO connections, the equatorward -AAM propagation from the SSWE and poleward -AAM from the MJO, etc. Masiello's "secret" to success here wrt having a relatively uncanny capability to predict medium-long range in spite of potentially large run-to-run NWP variability lies in his utilization of just focusing on the large-scale forcings at hand and complementing this with regular review of literature on topics that are relevant to the real-time pattern in addition to experience obviously, instead of focusing so much on NWP like many often do. Your brain is a muscle, and like any muscle it needs regular exercise and that's what reading literature affords you. That's what separates the men from the boys.

Screen Shot 2018-02-07 at 3.14.52 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes I did and it's also a GEFS 11-16 day forecast, name one EPS/GEFS coast-to-coast torch that they've been advertising on end for the past few weeks beyond day 6-7 that's verified, I'll be waiting...
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I’ve spoken on that as well and 100% agree. The more one looks at 500mb anomalies over the course of seasons/years you’ll be able to distinguish when the model is complete BS. Model loses skill and tries to throw ridges and troughs everywhere, often elongating them. It’s a 11-16 day mean on an ensemble - that’s pretty much par for the course there.. Half of that ridging won’t be there.


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I'm still psyched up to see how the polar vortex split will impact our weather.....looking a the model run to run, the direction of the cold air aloft moves has been pretty inconsistent past 5 days.
 
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
 
Tarheel1 said:
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
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I'll discuss any pattern, any time, any season (and I'll probably be wrong) ... but if I see warm, and say warm, please do not translate that to "want warm"; likewise, if I see cold, or say cold, please do not translate that to somehow "want warm". :cool:
 
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Tarheel1 said:
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
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Well the models were trying to show a torch all winter long when winter started and look how that turned out. I don’t think anyone is saying a torch 100% can’t and won’t happen but rather explaining why they think it might not happen. February can be a crazy month and really anything can happen warm or cold. Obviously we all would love one last snow storm to close out the winter but only time will tell what truly happens.
 
Tarheel1 said:
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
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I sure hope the EPS busts and all the warmth is wrong and the higher heights across the conus is wrong. And the big vortex over north central Canada is wrong. I hope it’s all wrong. I think March 1960 is coming. :-(



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Yeah I don't get it. We have seen torch after torch forecast in the long range and it has verified very few days overall since late November early December. We have seen some amazing cold forecast in the long range too and some have been pretty close to correct at times and other times not so much, so the object lesson here is don't panic nor celebrate too much based on long range (over 10 days) predictions. Winter is over, winter cancel, fabulous February etc... are being trumpeted run to operational run and that is a huge mistake.
 
MichaelJ said:
Yeah I don't get it. We have seen torch after torch forecast in the long range and it has verified very few days overall since late November early December. We have seen some amazing cold forecast in the long range too and some have been pretty close to correct at times and other times not so much, so the object lesson here is don't panic nor celebrate too much based on long range (over 10 days) predictions. Winter is over, winter cancel, fabulous February etc... are being trumpeted run to operational run and that is a huge mistake.
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Agreed. Seasonal may win out rest of winter. Since mid-January we have some cold shots, some warmups. But, just nothing conducive for impact winter events.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I sure do too, but since it's just someone on social media saying it, I feel like it's grasping at straws. On the other hand, things are looking more positive in the LR for at least a cool down. All we need it cooperation between highs and lows...
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I just want you to get a lot, and I mean a lot, of good rain for the Lake before the dry season sets in ... ;)
Would love to see you get some frozen in the interim, but H2O into the Lake is crucial. Why the heck they built it where they did, given the flow from the mountains, still confuses if not perplexes me ... :confused:
Lastly, not sure if a March freeze down here is wanted ...

On second thought ... bring it on ... :cool:
 
Tarheel1 said:
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
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Meh the whole point here is that a ridge over the entire US (and more) won't happen. It's true and will adjust (analysis unless it initialized wrong for today showed a trough over the great lakes on the models, but that was it in the US) but positive heights over all of the southeast...is that conducive to winter weather or truly cold temps occurring?

Winter most likely...is over outside of Tennessee and parts of North Carolina. La Nina has put her foot down.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Meh the whole point here is that a ridge over the entire US (and more) won't happen. It's true and will adjust (analysis unless it initialized wrong for today showed a trough over the great lakes on the models, but that was it in the US) but positive heights over all of the southeast...is that conducive to winter weather or truly cold temps occurring?

Winter most likely...is over outside of Tennessee and parts of North Carolina. La Nina has put her foot down.
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Love ya GA Girl, but do not agree at all....
 
pcbjr said:
I just want you to get a lot, and I mean a lot, of good rain for the Lake before the dry season sets in ... ;)
Would love to see you get some frozen in the interim, but H2O into the Lake is crucial. Why the heck they built it where they did, given the flow from the mountains, still confuses if not perplexes me ... :confused:
Lastly, not sure if a March freeze down here is wanted ...

On second thought ... bring it on ... :cool:
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Well, good news is all the runoff and rain, which has been around 4 or so inches since Feb 3rd, has raised the lake up to only 3.5 feet down, up almost a foot since. The dry season is real, and I'll take as much as I can get between then and now. But if we head towards an El Nino, there won't be much dry between now and the end of it.
 
I'll be happy to be proven wrong, just one storm can make a month memorable but I'm just not feeling it at all...I do think Tennessee Valley areas that got shut out with early December have a puncher's shot late this month and in early March but I think everyone else outside Tennessee/parts of North Carolina is done.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'll be happy to be proven wrong, just one storm can make a month memorable but I'm just not feeling it at all...I do think Tennessee Valley areas that got shut out with early December have a puncher's shot late this month and in early March but I think everyone else outside Tennessee/parts of North Carolina is done.
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Maybe, parts of Metro ATL have had over 14 inches this winter so that is a huge win, but we are in the true heart of winter, and you know how March can act....
 
BPATL said:
Maybe, parts of Metro ATL have had over 14 inches this winter so that is a huge win, but we are in the true heart of winter, and you know how March can act....
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I only know pain, not hope from March. I wouldn't mind observing 93 all over again but I will never EVER get over March 2009. That scarred me forever. It's why I absolutely despise bowling balls/cutoffs.

I don't care if one sits and dumps on me, I will still completely hate bowling balls/cutoffs.
 
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