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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Stormlover said:
Showing a colder look in the 8-14 in the southeast
This actually looks about like what I would expect. I will take that verbatim and be very happy.
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Clayton said:
No I'm not. I was just saying I like storms with a little more impact and freezing over afterwards s desirable on my view or during the event. But don't worry about it
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You just joined Friday? I know you were talking about this junk before that?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro continues to amplify the MJO in the Western Pacific and Western Hemisphere, and is looking more like the GFS every day. Now brings the MJO to nearly 3.5 sigma and even that may not be strong enough.
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A few important take aways worth bringing up here that I gleaned from reading several pieces of scientific literature last night regarding the ECMWF's handling of MJO events in the Maritime Continent
  • The MJO predictability across the Maritime Continent appears to be dependent on the amount of convection and boundary layer warmth in the Western Pacific. Warmer initial SSTs and less convection preceding MJO events that propagate across the Maritime Continent are generally more predictable than those w/ a singular, monopole of deep convection.
  • Drier western Pacific helps generate a rossby wave like response that increases meridional flux of moisture which allows the MJO to propagate more easily across the Maritime Continent
  • The fractional contribution of surface winds is larger than convection (OLR) in RMM which is a profound weakness in the index
  • The European actually has a wet bias over the Maritime Continent due to its poor representation of important topographic features which interfere w/ low-level latent heat fluxes and surface wind exchanges. This wet bias here strengthens the Walker Circulation and creates a corresponding cool bias in the east-central Pacific equatorial cold tongue.
  • The stronger diurnal cycle during the northern hemisphere summer and El Nino increases the frequency of MJO blocking by the Maritime Continent because the incident solar radiation is stronger which hastens the diurnal cycle of convection over the archipelago that destructively interferes w/ the MJO
  • The diurnal cycle in convection over the Maritime Continent interferes with the MJO by competing for moisture, and impacts to the large-scale circulation through generation of sea breeze circulations, etc.

The following diagram shows RMM MJO bias vectors for the ECMWF, JMA, and NCEP GFS models from Ichikawa and Inatsu (2017) according to each MJO phase. Note here that the Euro and JMA are on average too slow w/ the MJO in general (for example during a Maritime Continent MJO forecast reality may be closer to phase 5 while a Euro/JMA forecast depicts the MJO closer to phase 4, etc.). Also, while the NCEP GFS tends to have an overall oversimplification bias for MJO events as Larry has discussed the past few days, this bias only really occurs in phases 6,7,8, & 1 (western Pacific & Western Hemisphere), while the biases in the Maritime Continent are actually smaller than either the JMA or ECMWF models. This suggests that the GFS is in fact better at forecasting MJO events in the Maritime Continent (phase 4-5) than any other global model, which is where the MJO has been the past week and change.
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Webb,
Great stuff! Is this study referring to the operational runs or the respective ensembles?

So, looking at the table, my eyes are telling me that the Euro (or EPS if they're referring to ensembles) has had the smallest average error when the MJO was initialized outside the COD in phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 as well as when inside the circle. The GFS (or GEFS?) did much better when the MJO was outside in 4 and 5 as you stated. Interestingly, the JMA did best when outside in phase 7 and was tied with the GFS for the best when outside in phase 6!

Edit: IF this is based on operationals rather than ensemble means, wouldn't you also want to see how the ensemble means did?
 
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If that track verified which it won t, but if it did there is plenty of cold on the NW side. I'd take a track from the gulf to off the SC coast and call it a winter

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GaWx said:
Webb,
Great stuff! Is this study referring to the operational runs or the respective ensembles?

So, looking at the table, my eyes are telling me that the Euro (or EPS if they're referring to ensembles) has had the smallest average error when the MJO was initialized outside the COD in phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 as well as when inside the circle. The GFS (or GEFS?) did much better when the MJO was outside in 4 and 5 as you stated. Interestingly, the JMA did best when outside in phase 7 and was tied with the GFS for the best when outside in phase 6!

Edit: IF this is based on operationals rather than ensemble means, wouldn't you also want to see how the ensemble means did?
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3 hours of court and now a whole new chapter on MJO to learn ...
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
If we get as many systems as the GFS just put out at least one of them has to be a Deep South snow
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I know that's right! I don't think we can miss that much and not get hit eventually, if we get as much systems as the GFS advertises. And it may not be too off the mark, due to the strong MJO pulse bound to wake up the subtropical jet as Eric and Larry have mentioned.
 
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