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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

pcbjr said:
Lord I hope he's right ... ;)
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Next chance is 2/17-20 IMO, so I agree more or less. Doesn’t mean it will work out, but that’s the period to watch so far at least for the upper SE, apps, NC of course. Goes without saying a LOT has to happen to get it going for those dates, but that’s the timeframe.
 
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The greater SE has done pretty well compared to other areas such as DC and Northern Va. it could be worse.
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The Euro and GFS both have been showing on and off a chance for my area Sunday/ Monday. Euro looked good yesterday but has backed off atm. It would not take much for a good hit for me with this setup.
 
pcbjr said:
Webb,
In total honesty and with the utmost candor, no idea. o_O
Can you translate and bring it down to my kindergarten level?
Thanks! ;)
Best,
Phil
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Essentially saying we have all the classic signals associated w/ a big MJO event, the Pacific jet is just not extending like we usually observe, it may be tied to the bgd state which isn't particular favorable for Pac Jet extension. The Pacific Jet not extending will change the downstream pattern over North America relative to what we often observe in phase 8.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Essentially saying we have all the classic signals associated w/ a big MJO event, the Pacific jet is just not extending like we usually observe, it may be tied to the bgd state which isn't particular favorable for Pac Jet extension. The Pacific Jet not extending will change the downstream pattern over North America relative to what we often observe in phase 8.
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Thanks! Most appreciated, You're a gem! ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Essentially saying we have all the classic signals associated w/ a big MJO event, the Pacific jet is just not extending like we usually observe, it may be tied to the bgd state which isn't particular favorable for Pac Jet extension. The Pacific Jet not extending will change the downstream pattern over North America relative to what we often observe in phase 8.
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I think what folks want to know is if this is a cold signal or more warmth?
 
It's interesting to see the difference of opinion among folks here as well as on the local tv stations. Glenn Burns says spring begins after 2/14, Chris Holcomb (who I acutually trust more lol) said its warm the next week or maybe two but winter isn't over. lol. It's one heckuva showdown between stations this month! I have no clue what David is saying (I lost respect for him when he went off on folks a few days before the foot of snow saying its not happening, no snow is going to fall) and CBS 46 eh.. I take them with a grain of salt.

My vote goes to "Winter isn't over" meaning some cold shots are still likely and if they happen to meet up with precip well there ya go.

Anywho. 1.32" of rain today. Down to 39.4 this hour.
 
Stormlover said:
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Of course we've heard many on here thrown in the towel and say winter cancel, etc...smh
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We’ve seen quite a few of these posts from Mets, ( Cohen, JB , Ventrice, WxSouth, etc) about how cold February was going to be , as Storm stated, the Mid month, is now end of the month at best, and with the models and ensembles looking quite Torchy, the end of the month should be in question?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I think what folks want to know is if this is a cold signal or more warmth?
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Sounds like he’s saying it’s going to cause the opposite effect of a normal phase 8 MJO, so that sounds like he’s saying warm, IMO
 
Storm5 said:
We've also heard many on here talk about how great this month was gonna be after the 10th, then the second week , now it's the last week

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better than declaring it's over...in fact, what's worse, you may have been on both sides, depending on the day, LOL, j/lk
 
Tarheel1 said:
We’ve seen quite a few of these posts from Mets, ( Cohen, JB , Ventrice, WxSouth, etc) about how cold February was going to be , as Storm stated, the Mid month, is now end of the month at best, and with the models and ensembles looking quite Torchy, the end of the month should be in question?
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The ensembles have looked torchy for weeks and it hasn't verified. The first week of February is solidly below normal, even a super torchy week would bring our temps to seasonal levels by mid-month.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Could be wrong but if anything "phase 8" esque occurs, it should bring BN temps to the east. Phase 8 seems to be what everyone is hoping for
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That’s what’s odd. GEFS is the coldest model but has MJO stuck in 7 and EPS has it riding into
8-1 but is a blow torch the next 15 days with a below normal day here or there mixed in after a rain event.

06DF727E-73C6-4D2C-8ADF-F3CD693415D0.gif
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470F8080-D7B7-48FB-8F84-4DFCCE315449.png Laying down the snowpack for Fab Feb 27th - March 10th , rocking pattern!
 
F5E62F62-AFA5-4BA6-AE11-FF210191C35D.png Trying to find positives!:weenie::eek:
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The sad thing is, seasonal=rain :(
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Seasonal means rain at any time of the winter however. Our climatology is generally legitimate through the first week-10 days of March to support a storm. The 25th seems to be a very popular date for big fluke events like we observed in 1983, 1974, 1972, & 1971, 1940 etc.
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 3885 Trying to find positives!:weenie::eek:
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I feel like I'm waiting for geraldo rivero to open Al Capone's vault.Just hope it ends a little more entertaining this time. It is a unique twist to the pattern that should have some fairly noticeable impacts. Also, the models have very little experience since this is fairly rare.
 
Storm5 said:
We've also heard many on here talk about how great this month was gonna be after the 10th, then the second week , now it's the last week

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Just like my Tesla Model 3 reservation


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yeah, yeah, it's at 348, but it will be interesting to see if this kind of anomalous cold is still on the models in a few days.. This is very very cold for late Feb in Canada:
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Wow, look at how much colder is the EPS from about midmonth on up in the Midwest vs the prior run! This looks like it is fueled vs the prior run by a stronger -AO, a more -NAO and/or less +NAO, and a stronger -EPO.
 
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if we realize this near mythical -NAO I can't see how we don't get some chances for cold/snow here in the south(somewhere) late this month.
 
not a lot of information on it, but there was a little snow storm that was greatly overshadowed by the storm of the century 2 and half weeks later.. CHA got a 3 inch snow on Feb 25 1993, that would have been the season's highest snowfall had the epic March '93 blizzard not happened. Knoxville received only an inch, so it must of been a N Alabama/N Georgia special. My memory can't recall it very well, considering what happened later.. anyone have any maps/info on that little storm?
 
Well heard first of the "spring peepers" last night.... On bright side last year was hearing them the first week of Jan....lol
 
No Robins up here yet either. Last year they never left. Yesterday was supposed to be 50 abut we started the day with borderline ZR and we were low to mid 30s most of the day and I think a high of 38. Wedge over performed again but man that was a miserable day.
 
MBell said:
It's interesting to see the difference of opinion among folks here as well as on the local tv stations. Glenn Burns says spring begins after 2/14, Chris Holcomb (who I acutually trust more lol) said its warm the next week or maybe two but winter isn't over. lol. It's one heckuva showdown between stations this month! I have no clue what David is saying (I lost respect for him when he went off on folks a few days before the foot of snow saying its not happening, no snow is going to fall) and CBS 46 eh.. I take them with a grain of salt.

My vote goes to "Winter isn't over" meaning some cold shots are still likely and if they happen to meet up with precip well there ya go.

Anywho. 1.32" of rain today. Down to 39.4 this hour.
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A showdown between Atlanta TV Mets is like a baseball showdown between 5 year old t-ball teams. They are all bad! They are not on TV because they know the weather. They struggle to hit a forecast beyond 6 hours. I love to use the old term "rip and read". They pull the latest computer model data, print it out and read it to the public like it is gospel. I have seen this for 26 years. For the last 15 years, I have watched an ATL tv weather forecast for nothing more than comic relief maybe once or twice a year.
One of the many times winter was declared over in Feb. was 1993. How did that turn out? 2009 as well to a lesser degree.
 
MBell said:
It's interesting to see the difference of opinion among folks here as well as on the local tv stations. Glenn Burns says spring begins after 2/14, Chris Holcomb (who I acutually trust more lol) said its warm the next week or maybe two but winter isn't over. lol. It's one heckuva showdown between stations this month! I have no clue what David is saying (I lost respect for him when he went off on folks a few days before the foot of snow saying its not happening, no snow is going to fall) and CBS 46 eh.. I take them with a grain of salt.

My vote goes to "Winter isn't over" meaning some cold shots are still likely and if they happen to meet up with precip well there ya go.

Anywho. 1.32" of rain today. Down to 39.4 this hour.
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Burns and Chandley are from the same school of thought..It is utterly stupid to say winter is over on Feb 7th or whenever they said this. I NEVER watch TV news, unless we have a major national disaster...
 
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