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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

pcbjr said:
Now, does January vs. February make a difference?
Good info, in any event!
BTW - after that blast in 1985, it warmed up and pretty well stayed ...
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I hope January v/s Feb/March doesn't make a difference. o_O

But yeah, if we can get one more 7-10 day stretch end of February into early March that would be a great way to end winter.
 


Lol the EPS has no idea what's going on after day 6-7. The EPS also has had a noteworthy +PNA/+EPO bias of late, probably wouldn't be shocked to see a massive ridge go up in Alaska again and reload North America w/ Siberian air. It's another question if we actually get cold thereafter.
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SoutheastRidge said:
I'm starting to wonder if Atlanta has seen it's last freeze of the season. No freezes forecast through at least Feb 22. I know one year the last freeze was in early February so I guess it's possible.
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Honestly, are you for real....Even with the torch of a winter we had last year we had brutal late season HARD freezes...It obliterated some of my Japanese Maples that were already leafing out.....
 
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Now we are getting somewhere
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Question, what do you all think is the driven force for this winter season -AO, + PNA, MJO, all of above, or other :weenie:.

Should have the question later after the Duke/NC game

I should have put this in banter sorry
 
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Webberweather53 said:
So much for the models trending warmer... lmao. Classic post Pacific MJO/SSWE -NAO
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Definitely like the drop in the AO. That should help drive cold air down. Also, we are starting to see better looks in the models, with cold air showing up further south over several runs.
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February looks like a good bet to still finish above average in the deeper south, JMO. It might not be the warmer than November 2017 crap that it looked like at first but by the time where we "might" get into a good pattern, it's going to be too late to reverse what we had seen for most of the month.

Maybe North Carolina, Tennessee finish February at seasonable but I doubt it south of there.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
February looks like a good bet to still finish above average in the deeper south, JMO. It might not be the warmer than November 2017 crap that it looked like at first but by the time where we "might" get into a good pattern, it's going to be too late to reverse what we had seen for most of the month.

Maybe North Carolina, Tennessee finish February at seasonable but I doubt it south of there.
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yep, gonna take some extreme cold last 8-10 days of Feb to turn most around to BN for the month.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, the 12Z GFS/CMC suites keep the SE ridge strong through day 15. Let's see if the Euro suite agrees.
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The 12Z Euro/EPS as well as the 18Z GFS suite both agree with warmer than normal 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 day periods in the SE US. It isn't often that this strong of a consensus over multiple model runs is seen. That would take us through 2/23 leaving the last few days of the month as the best opportunity for a turn
to consistently colder than normal in the SE assuming this strong and persistent consensus isn't out to lunch. I have a feeling that the bugs are going to wake up in large quantities during this period. In case Southeast Ridge is wondering, I'm not talking about Indiana.
 
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GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro/EPS as well as the 18Z GFS suite both agree with warmer than normal 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 day periods in the SE US. It isn't often that this strong of a consensus over multiple model runs is seen. That would take us through 2/23 leaving the last few days of the month as the best opportunity for a turn
to consistently colder than normal in the SE assuming this strong and persistent consensus isn't out to lunch. I have a feeling that the bugs are going to wake up in large quantities during this period. In case Southeast Ridge is wondering, I'm not talking about Indiana.
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But everybody says models verification sucks outside of five days, so I wouldn’t bet on it being warm all the way through Feb 23rd, especially if the indicies are headed in the right direction! -AO, and such
 
Tarheel1 said:
But everybody says models verification sucks outside of five days, so I wouldn’t bet on it being warm all the way through Feb 23rd, especially if the indicies are headed in the right direction! -AO, and such
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Yeah, I think you're right. I'd only bet on the warmth going through 2/22. ;)

In all seriousness, when on a wx forum in winter did you ever see most active posters agreeing with models having 15 days of warmth without a lot of questioning of them? Perhaps never? Modeled warmth will always be questioned more than modeled cold in winter. I call it the JB syndrome. ;)

This doesn't mean the models can't be wrong. I hope they are. But just seeing the serious questioning doesn't necessarily cause me to bet on them being wrong since this is seen quite often. This consensus has been strong and persistent. Plus it matches La Niña climo quite well. I need to see more hints of change in the SE US before I can get excited for the SE during the upcoming 2 weeks. Regardless, there's always 2/24-March to have hopes for.
 
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GaWx said:
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Yeah, I think you're right. I'd only bet on the warmth going through 2/22. ;)

In all seriousness, when on a wx forum in winter did you ever see most active posters agreeing with models having 15 days of warmth without a lot of questioning of them? Perhaps never? Modeled warmth will always be questioned more than modeled cold in winter. I call it the JB syndrome. ;)

This doesn't mean the models can't be wrong. I hope they are. But just seeing the serious questioning doesn't necessarily cause me to bet on them being wrong since this is seen quite often. This consensus has been strong and persistent. Plus it matches La Niña climo quite well. I need to see more hints of change in the SE US before I can get excited for the SE during the upcoming 2 weeks. Regardless, there's always 2/24-March to have hopes for.
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After this “ can’t lose “ February, I will always question :10–5 day cold looks on any models, analogs, indicies, halos around the moon, SSW and PV Splits/disruption, JB, Judah Cohen, Michae Ventrice, DT, groundhogs!
 
Tarheel1 said:
But everybody says models verification sucks outside of five days, so I wouldn’t bet on it being warm all the way through Feb 23rd, especially if the indicies are headed in the right direction! -AO, and such
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Day 8/9 and on the EPS and the GEFS have a -AO, -NAO and -EPO but we are torching. Yes the PNA is negative but with the other three you would think eventually it would drive cold into the east. That’s assuming these models that are wrong in the exteneded are correct about the blocking.
 
Tarheel1 said:
After this “ can’t lose “ February, I will always question :10–5 day cold looks on any models, analogs, indicies, halos around the moon, SSW and PV Splits/disruption, JB, Judah Cohen, Michae Ventrice, DT, groundhogs!
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If we had analogs going back 10's of thousands of years and knew every single teleconnection that existed, then we could accurately predict the weather. We don't. We have a science that's nowhere near reliable. We know how hot the planet will be in 200 years but we don't know if it will be 79 or 32 in Raleigh NC at hour 214...right
 
Kylo said:
Day 8/9 and on the EPS and the GEFS have a -AO, -NAO and -EPO but we are torching. Yes the PNA is negative but with the other three you would think eventually it would drive cold into the east. That’s assuming these models that are wrong in the exteneded are correct about the blocking.
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That's confusing considering that I think it might actually be an -EPO that has driven this winter considering this is a La Nina. When the EPO has gone positive (until maybe now, but not sure) it's been time's up for the entire time, and when it's negative, it's game on (usually?).

But then again with the way they've gone lately they may be wrong on all three of the teleconnections. It wouldn't be surprising.
 
Anybody thinking that this was a can't miss February for the deep south may have also been thinking that the stock market would not ever correct itself! I did not see anything in the last few weeks that made me think cold and/or snow was a lock to set in for most of February, What I did fear is what is happening. The cold has made it back to the east, but the real cold has not penetrated to the south and does not look like it will for at least another week if not more. Beyond that is anyone's guess. We must also remember that below normal for south does not mean below freezing daytime temps. February has been below normal thus far. Just not like most of December and January.

Also, to think that Atlanta may not get below freezing again this winter is a bizarre call to say the least.
 
I'd need to see a map for the first 8 days to be sure, but it's absolutely news to me if more than Tennessee and North Carolina are at below average on February so far. At best its at average...it may seem below average because February just torched all the way last year terribly.

Finally pulled one, it's in the attachment. Only going to get warmer too in the coming days...
 

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Take it for what it's worth, but as would be expected given the PV split/SSWE and concomitant equatorward -AAM propagation further solidified by a strong Pacific MJO pulse I talked about a day or so ago, the EPS weeklies finally show a block over Greenland by the end of the month. The relatively slow MJO propagation through the WP (which is probably attributable to the base state already changing and the SSWE enhancing the Brewer Dobson Circulation) likely can account for the delayed reaction wrt -NAO following in the wake of a Pacific MJO event.
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Webberweather53 said:
Take it for what it's worth, but as would be expected given the PV split/SSWE and concomitant equatorward -AAM propagation further solidified by a strong Pacific MJO pulse I talked about a day or so ago, the EPS weeklies finally show a block over Greenland by the end of the month. The relatively slow MJO propagation through the WP (which is probably attributable to the base state already changing and the SSWE enhancing the Brewer Dobson Circulation) likely can account for the delayed reaction wrt -NAO following in the wake of a Pacific MJO event.
View attachment 3910
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Greenland block and W trough, E ridge!? We rock!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Take it for what it's worth, but as would be expected given the PV split/SSWE and concomitant equatorward -AAM propagation further solidified by a strong Pacific MJO pulse I talked about a day or so ago, the EPS weeklies finally show a block over Greenland by the end of the month. The relatively slow MJO propagation through the WP (which is probably attributable to the base state already changing and the SSWE enhancing the Brewer Dobson Circulation) likely can account for the delayed reaction wrt -NAO following in the wake of a Pacific MJO event.
View attachment 3910
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Yeah. Ensembles have it and Ops seems to be tanking it last few runs.

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The water is sloshing around in JB's bathtub again. He said last night on WeatherBell that we are starting a -NAO season which will be from Feb 15 to April 15 and that the cold that is in Europe now is a precursor to what should show up over the US. May be too late to do us in the SE any good though. We will see.
 
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