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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GFS atleast looks pretty day 8-9. Those Presidents Day snows. PNA ridge with -EPO, AO block into Greenland. Just need it shoved southeast a 100 miles.

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There is some model support for Presidents Day east coast winter storm. JMA and Euro also show something.
 
Kylo said:
GFS atleast looks pretty day 8-9. Those Presidents Day snows. PNA ridge with -EPO, AO block into Greenland. Just need it shoved southeast a 100 miles.

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Another 300 miles south would suit me fine. Then again, I am ready for Spring and working in my garden again.
 
pcbjr said:

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The Euro has incessantly tried to dampen the MJO at every chance it gets and none of those forecasts have verified the past 3 weeks, it's been embarrassing to watch even as someone who didn't create or work on the ECMWF. If there's 2 things on the planetary scale that models can't resolve it's stratosphere-troposphere interactions and initiating convection in the tropics as a result of it and we'll have to deal with both simultaneously here
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The Euro has incessantly tried to dampen the MJO at every chance it gets and none of those forecasts have verified the past 3 weeks, it's been atrocious to watch. If there's 2 things on the planetary scale that models can't resolve it's stratosphere-troposphere interactions and initiating convection in the tropics as a result of it and we'll have to deal with both simultaneously here
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You seemingly missed my point, but I got yours ... ;)
 
Liking the GFS trends today for next weekend for cooler air... and even temps for the coming week have cooled off a few degrees compared to earlier runs this week. Seems like the warmth is slowly getting chipped back a bit but still looking above average for sure next week regardless.
 
Ended up -3.9 for the month of January here. So far we are average at best for February. We did hit 60 today. First time it what seems like forever. Looks like another big rain in the low / mid 30s is heading this way. Miserable.
 
dsaur said:
I guess it's all relative. Over the last 10 nights I've been below, or at freezing 5 times, and below 35 3 times, all cold enough to support frozen, at least at the surface. It's been cold where my skin is, if not the whole column. It's always gets cold in winter, but since it's the south, there are so many more factors to work in, lol. How deep is the cold, how sustained, where's the moisture? Do the two meet up? Best not to look past 3 days, and one won't get too worked up about any of it, lol.
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Meant to reply to this earlier but this is why I get it in "thinking" that February may have been below average so far because of how badly February torched all the way last year (really the whole winter). But (and this going off of my memory, atm) low to mid 60s is actually above average!

I remember someone else posting when one of those analysis maps was posted "Huh, I thought it was much more colder than average, guess it feels that way because of the bad 16/17 winter last season".
 
The GFS actually piqued my interest slightly for next weekend. Of course it will change 1500 times between now and then, but I've seen set-ups like that before that spelled I-C-E.
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
WELL WHAT ARE YALL'S THOUGHTS ON THE TORNADO SEASON AS IT APPROACHES????
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I look at it like winter outlooks. Winter weenies have hopes and dreams of great winter storms, same every year.
Severe weenies will find 10 different ways to say why or how this will be the busiest, most active severe season in decades. 4-2011 , will inevitably be brought up once or twice as an analog, like 1-1988, 3-1993 for winter weenies. And it will not be nearly as active as most were hoping/ wanting, which is what I like! Severe weather is sooooo boring, and dangerous
 
pcbjr said:
YOU CAN HAVE IT ... if you catch the spin ...

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Yeah, I'd rather not see a bad season. Only time it's any bit exciting is when nobody gets hurt or property doesn't get damaged. I also prefer to not have to clean up tree branches coming down from storms. At least all but a few of the Bradford pears have fallen from past storms, and Irma did a toll on the weaker tree branches last year. So far, it's been a slow year for tornadoes and I want it to stay that way.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I look at it like winter outlooks. Winter weenies have hopes and dreams of great winter storms, same every year.
Severe weenies will find 10 different ways to say why or how this will be the busiest, most active severe season in decades. 4-2011 , will inevitably be brought up once or twice as an analog, like 1-1988, 3-1993 for winter weenies. And it will not be nearly as active as most were hoping/ wanting, which is what I like! Severe weather is sooooo boring, and dangerous
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And what makes you think it won’t be active this spring severe wise... and severe weather anything but boring. Lmao
 
With what appears to be a conveyor belt of rain systems for at least the next two weeks (probably much longer), I suspect this could be setting up for an extremely wet spring season for some locations.
 
Some serious cold in Canada, but appears to stay locked in up there on this run.. who knows:
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3k NAM suggests some serious training is about to take place over WNC. Rainfall amounts may approach 10 inches in some spots over the next 60 hours. Northern burbs of Atlanta into Oconee SC also looking at some big time rainfall amounts. La Niña my ass. Talk about a drought buster
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
3k NAM suggests some serious training is about to take place over WNC. Rainfall amounts may approach 10 inches in some spots over the next 60 hours. Northern burbs of Atlanta into Oconee SC also looking at some big time rainfall amounts. La Niña my ass. Talk about a drought buster
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Have no problem getting bullseyed when its flooding rains...smdh
Good thing i live in the hills of Oconee i guess.
 
Starting to wonder if this February and March will be like 1990. Both of those months were warm and wet. WAY too much rain fell in parts of AL, and GA during those 2 months.
 
JHS said:
Starting to wonder if this February and March will be like 1990. Both of those months were warm and wet. WAY too much rain fell in parts of AL, and GA during those 2 months.
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And that was followed by a very hot summer that lasted well into September, and a very mild winter. :(
 
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