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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

JHS said:
Starting to wonder if this February and March will be like 1990. Both of those months were warm and wet. WAY too much rain fell in parts of AL, and GA during those 2 months.
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Looking like it. No Op run so far is showing anything in the way of a cold pattern for the east. Keep hoping to see hints of it, but day after day, nothing. We’re wasting precious time.
 
Rain Cold said:
Looking like it. No Op run so far is showing anything in the way of a cold pattern for the east. Keep hoping to see hints of it, but day after day, nothing. We’re wasting precious time.
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EPS keeps searching for cold as well. I know i know the eps has sucked post day 5

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already over an inch of rain this morning and its going to rain literally all day today. ive had about as much rain as i can stand. It needs to dry out
 
Rain Cold said:
Looking like it. No Op run so far is showing anything in the way of a cold pattern for the east. Keep hoping to see hints of it, but day after day, nothing. We’re wasting precious time.
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FWIW the 6z GEFS was the best run in days 10+ yet. Though the EPS wasn’t good at all. And the GEFS has been wanting to tank the AO and so far hasn’t verified, same with the PNA. But it’s atleast something to hope for to close out February.

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SPC upgraded areas of LA and southern MS to a slight risk of severe weather given thinning cloud coverage out ahead of a complex of storms over central-western LA and extreme eastern Texas. Environment looks modestly favorable for an isolated supercell or two. We're starting to inch really close to the meat of the tornado season in Dixie Alley.
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Good grief. Its only going to get wetter
 

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meanwhile yet another arctic front here, was near 70 yesterday and already in the 30s this morning

running much colder than forecast already :confused:

An upper level disturbance is still slated to move overhead late
tonight through Sunday morning. This is when we could see some
accumulations significant enough to produce travel delays due to
ice on both bridges and roads. The Winter Weather Advisory which
is in effect for tonight through Sunday morning across areas
southwest of the DFW Metroplex will likely need to be expanded
northeastward across the Metroplex, and possibly all the way to
the northeast counties based on the recent model guidance
 
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Rain Cold said:
Looking like it. No Op run so far is showing anything in the way of a cold pattern for the east. Keep hoping to see hints of it, but day after day, nothing. We’re wasting precious time.
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I don’t understand the hysteria!? JB say, no worries! :weenie: IF, IF, IF
 
Webberweather53 said:
He keeps moving the goalposts, first it was fab February after the thaw by mid month at the latest, then it was "well it'll still happen but a week later", now it's miracle march. Smh lol
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And the goal posts go further up as we go too. Pretty soon we'll never be able to make it up to the posts. 1 more mush back and it's game over.
 
ForsythSnow said:
And the goal posts go further up as we go too. Pretty soon we'll never be able to make it up to the posts. 1 more mush back and it's game over.
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Typically, on a day like today in early-mid February, with a muggy, springlike humid day and a good breeze from the south, one would just know (even without looking at a model or a local forecast) that a good stout cold front was on the way. Not so ... such a strange winter start to finish (assuming it's finished) ... Yet, it's just once, but I can recall one solid freeze in April, so until March is over, faith and delusion, in tandem, remain a guiding light ... :confused:
 
pcbjr said:
Yet, it's just once, but I can recall one solid freeze in April, so until March is over, faith and delusion, in tandem, remain a guiding light ... :confused:
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Yeah, we aren't done hearing about winter until that happens, and everyone chases the rare April snows as well. Statistically, I have to wonder how many last freezes produced snow before. Probably like 1 or 2 at most.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, we aren't done hearing about winter until that happens, and everyone chases the rare April snows as well. Statistically, I have to wonder how many last freezes produced snow before. Probably like 1 or 2 at most.
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Wasn't even hinting at snow down here, just that cold is not off the table ... yet ... ;)
 
0B5CC196-56B1-4B3B-8C27-41500882E20E.png Hold up, wait a minute,
Let us put some ice in it!
 
ForsythSnow said:
And the goal posts go further up as we go too. Pretty soon we'll never be able to make it up to the posts. 1 more mush back and it's game over.
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At this point I'm just ready for severe weather and tornado season, can't wait for my first legitimate storm chase of the year.
 
7D399C48-A2C7-4EE6-8719-BF8A131F3846.png DT, love em , hate em, keeping it real! Mad respect!
 
This winter is not over. Again, winter is NOT over. In fact, it's UNDER, as in our Ferocious Freezing February has gone under. get it? Over, Under? I wonder what the over/under is for busted winter forecasts for JB?
 
It's going off topic, but the funny thing with the 1973 storm in what I've investigated before is that it was raining and in the 60s the day before the storm got under way. Suppose if we're going by what SERidge loves to push, that those accumulations could have been even higher than they were loool.

Another comment that I've found by the people in which this was in their time is that this was supposed to be a storm for North AL/GA and Upstate SC but it went further south and disappointed people that were in Atlanta and Birmingham.

Can you imagine if this situation happened again with the weather communities today online? Computers are better today with the models but imagine a major snowstorm being predicted for those areas and it goes further south. We'd be seeing a lot of ranting over this and maybe a few real cliff jumpers.

I'm not sure the situation that caused this though. I've studied it some but even in what I've seen, it feels like to me a central FL gulf low track means BOTH Atlanta and the major central Georgia cities and not excluding Atlanta completely.
 
JLL1973 said:
already over an inch of rain this morning and its going to rain literally all day today. ive had about as much rain as i can stand. It needs to dry out
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We were predicted to have heavy rain in Chattanooga today starting last night. We have had roughly under 1/4" of rain and mainly it's been either cloudy or a light mist. I'm really hoping we get somewhat close to the 2-4" forecasted. Looks like the band of rain has stayed on a steady line from the SW to NE just missing Chattanooga to the west. Hope we get it soon.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It's going off topic, but the funny thing with the 1973 storm in what I've investigated before is that it was raining and in the 60s the day before the storm got under way. Suppose if we're going by what SERidge loves to push, that those accumulations could have been even higher than they were loool.

Another comment that I've found by the people in which this was in their time is that this was supposed to be a storm for North AL/GA and Upstate SC but it went further south and disappointed people that were in Atlanta and Birmingham.

Can you imagine if this situation happened again with the weather communities today online? Computers are better today with the models but imagine a major snowstorm being predicted for those areas and it goes further south. We'd be seeing a lot of ranting over this and maybe a few real cliff jumpers.

I'm not sure the situation that caused this though. I've studied it some but even in what I've seen, it feels like to me a central FL gulf low track means BOTH Atlanta and the major central Georgia cities and not excluding Atlanta completely.
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But Atlanta Metro was still REELING form a devastating ice storm a month earlier, some people did not have power for a month...
 
Gonna man up here and say surely looks like I'm going to be wrong about the mid Feb page change to colder weather. Many are grasping trying to keep hope alive but I'm just not seeing anything in regards to teleconnections that can right this sinking ship until March. Want to say the last time the SSW event happened (or was hyped) it did nothing for the Deep South if I recall correctly. Old SER has been coming in stronger with LR model forecast for a week or so now... but I think the EPO is trying to take the lead as well... Good luck for those to our North and East they have storm track train running nicely

So I'm punting and will look to see if we can get the colder look in early to mid March and get a "Magic March Snowstorm"

... Carry on
 
Models still biased with -AO and -NAO. And with wanting to take PNA positive. Oh well. Sadly I am still hoping to see some snow.

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I never give up until the 10 day in mid March says 80s... and even then, there's always April '87. haha
 
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