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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Wish that cold would dip down a few hundred miles and a little sooner.

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png
 
It's always at the end of the run always out in fantasy land. The GEFS will make me feel better because it did have that same system
 
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That suggests Houston and much of the Gulf coast has shot at a THIRD measurable wintry event this winter. I'm educatedly guessing that if that were to actually occur that that would be a record for many along that coast. I'm assuming this map includes ZR but am not sure.
 
Wish that cold would dip down a few hundred miles and a little sooner.

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png

No chance on the cold dipping down sooner IMO. Really we need this vort to slow down. GFS looks too fast here anyway. I’ll be interested when the modeling figures out timing and/or speed of the s/w. It has yet to do that. If we get this later into Monday night, that would be ideal.


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The Euro continues to move the goal posts on the MJO pulse over the Western Pacific as I expected. The MJO amplitude is likely already above 3.5 sigma, the Australian BOM data already placed the MJO at about 3.4 sigma 2 days ago. It's safe to say the GEFS spanked the EPS in this particular case.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

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The Euro continues to move the goal posts on the MJO pulse over the Western Pacific as I expected. The MJO amplitude is likely already above 3.5 sigma, the Australian BOM data already placed the MJO at about 3.4 sigma 2 days ago. It's safe to say the GEFS spanked the EPS in this particular case.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

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So you're saying it's a knockout

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Need that closed lp out over the water instead of Fayetteville. The Canadian had it off shore yesterday and it went along way in improving the thermals here in NC
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