I'd much rather you start being negative now to really set the stage
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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
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After what I've witnessed the way s/w have trended this year, I'm not punting anything. A strung out shortwave trended into nine inches and a dead clipper trended to give me a inch and a half of powder. All within three days prior to the event.
Or maybe I will.
Xtreme Weather
Member
Not that it matters one bit but holy hell the 8th -13th
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Hope that snow hole in PA is over JBs house... Done nothing but complain about how low snow totals over his area is... LoL SMH
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Wow that’s one of the best ones I have seen.Not that it matters one bit but holy hell the 8th -13th
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Round Oak Weather
Member
What's the ensembles look like
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Really digging the positivity here for Ferocious Fierce Fab February. Sounds like the fun really begins next week.
Ferocious Fierce Fab 2nd week in Feb may very well turn out to be more appropriate instead of broadbrushing entire month. But we'll see.
edit: If the mJO will really stall in weak 7/8/1 area, that would imo be helpful to get cold to last longer term (into 3rd week at least).
The good ol' 336hr warm noseNot that it matters one bit but holy hell the 8th -13th
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At this point im not looking for a locked in cold pattern . I'll take quick cold hits with an active southern stream
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Kylo
Member
Day 10-11 2m temps for GEFS and EPS. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
RAH saying we might see snow Saturday and Sunday night, or we might not, because we don't really know yet.
Friday night through Monday: Surface high pressure will build into and through the area Friday night, shifting offshore by late Saturday and Saturday night. As a result, Friday night through Saturday is expected to be dry with below normal temperatures. Aloft, NW flow Friday night will shift to westerly on Saturday then more southwesterly Saturday night as an upper level trough sets up over the Midwest. A surface low develops over the Gulf Coast Sunday morning as the Canadian high pressure drives south through the Midwest. The low is expected to shift eastward through the FL panhandle, then northeast along the Southeast US coast Sunday and Sunday night. Over Central NC, a lingering ridge may inhibit some of the warm advection at the surface early on and with the current forecast track of the low, Central NC will be on the northern edge as it passes to the south and east. There is a lot of uncertainty, as the temperature, timing of the system and when/if the associated cold front moves into/through the area, will play a huge role in if, where and how much snow Central NC receives. Will continue to mention the chance for rain or snow Saturday night and Sunday night, while the daytime temperatures will likely be warm enough for a transition to all rain. Will continue to keep a close eye on this system in the coming days, but for right now its too early to
speculate about impacts with this system given the high degree of uncertainty.
Friday night through Monday: Surface high pressure will build into and through the area Friday night, shifting offshore by late Saturday and Saturday night. As a result, Friday night through Saturday is expected to be dry with below normal temperatures. Aloft, NW flow Friday night will shift to westerly on Saturday then more southwesterly Saturday night as an upper level trough sets up over the Midwest. A surface low develops over the Gulf Coast Sunday morning as the Canadian high pressure drives south through the Midwest. The low is expected to shift eastward through the FL panhandle, then northeast along the Southeast US coast Sunday and Sunday night. Over Central NC, a lingering ridge may inhibit some of the warm advection at the surface early on and with the current forecast track of the low, Central NC will be on the northern edge as it passes to the south and east. There is a lot of uncertainty, as the temperature, timing of the system and when/if the associated cold front moves into/through the area, will play a huge role in if, where and how much snow Central NC receives. Will continue to mention the chance for rain or snow Saturday night and Sunday night, while the daytime temperatures will likely be warm enough for a transition to all rain. Will continue to keep a close eye on this system in the coming days, but for right now its too early to
speculate about impacts with this system given the high degree of uncertainty.
If there is just a Fab 2nd week of Feb, that would be more than enough to call this a Fab winter overall imo. As it is, it has already been fabulous and I'm not just talking about wintry precip as not everyone got that. It is just that this has been a real winter with its typical ups and downs but with the downs (cold) making their presence front and center.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It will almost certainly reach phase 8, a 3-3.5 sigma pulse in phase 7 likely won't die before hitting the W hem
Round Oak Weather
Member
What's each of the ensembles have for snow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Really close call for Sunday into Monday for NC, unfortunately there's not much of a cold high to our north or northwest, a 1033 hPa over southern Minnesota is probably not going to be enough except for the mountains and far northwestern piedmont if anything
SnowNiner
Member
I'm definitely looking for a more or less locked in pattern 2/15 through the end of the month. 2 weeks of mostly below normal would be nice. That way it's not playing whack a mole trying to time the storms up with cold. My hope is once the MJO gets into favorable phases, it'll pump up the ridge, push the pv SE and we can set the stage for whatever makes it out of the SW. Not as extreme as January but solid below normal.
Euro sucks anyway. It's all about timing the precip, with how much cold air is left from the fri/sat cold shot and if it comes in before dawn on Sun morning, IMO
Stormlover
Member
interesting
I didn't mean I don't think it's possible. I should have said I dont care if a locked pattern sets up. It's February the backend of winter is here . Give me cold shots and an active southern stream and I'll be happy. If a colder pattern locks in I guess that would just be a bonus
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