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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Storm5 said:
You must have missed the January cold......

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Well I almost forgot about that. I'm talking about now though. I wish we could wait until March and April for NINA climatology to set in and not screw us. I was hoping for a true big dog Miller A storm before winter was over. We can only hope we are blessed with a March 1960 repeat but whatever.
 
purty, ain't it?
ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png
 
In all honesty, this winter has absolutely been like 1989-1990..but with the extremely cold period being from December 25 to January 25 this year instead of being the entire month of December like it was during that time period. I feel like that this current stretch of warmth is very close to January/February 1990 style misery.
 
GaWx said:
The MDA mets have KATL averaging a whopping 10 warmer than normal over the next 15 days, which is the KATL normal for the end of March and early April!
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Holy hell lol. Thank goodness for all the rain lately and whats to come . Without all this rain the coming summer would be damn brutal

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CentralGAColdFront said:
In all honesty, this winter has absolutely been like 1989-1990..but with the extremely cold period being from December 25 to January 25 this year instead of being the entire month of December like it was during that time period. I feel like that this current stretch of warmth is very close to January/February 1990 style misery.
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I'd also include 2000-2001 as a pretty good analog.
 
1300m said:
As feared, the MJO progression to phase 8 has not happened. It looks like the very thing most of us were all banking on to flip the pattern in late January looking forward will end up being one of the driving forces that prevents us from going back into a wintry pattern (MJO progression). Certainly a lot to be learned from this late winter, strong MJO Nina episode.

Ensembles remain in unison through another 10 days, bringing us to the last week of February now. Tick tock.
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Very good points. Tough one because we had the players on the field but the MJO gave us the bird. Hope we can still salvage something into March but if winter is truly over here, IMBY (which I think the fat lady is warming up) then I call a huge victory since we got about an inch of snow.
 
And if we can move into a weak nino, I’m curious to see about severe weather season
 
Today's GEFS suggests we'll likely only go down to pretty neutral as opposed to the strong -AO it had suggested on many day 14 forecasts of the last couple of weeks. There has been a strong (nearly -1) day 14 -AO bias when averaged out over the last 4 months.

The solid +PNA forecasted by the GEFS over the last couple of weeks at day 14 is turning out to be a huge bust.

Keep in mind that the GEFS has been keeping it in strong phase 7 for many forecast days but it is still busting badly on the AO and PNA.

Edited for typo.
 
Quite a bit cooler than I expected today. 46 and cloudy. Forecast high was 64 now its 55. 50 tomorrow(was 65 at one point lol). Blah.


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Temps falling into the upper 30s tomorrow, with a stiff 20-25 mph breeze out of the NE! Great CAD tomorrow! Should feel a little colder after being near 70 today!
 
For the 11th day in a row, the MJO remains above 3.0 sigma in phase 7.

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

In terms of amplitude and persistence, there's literally no valid comparison for this event at this time of the year other than March 1997 & 2015 which preceded Super El Nino events, and rightfully so. I've seen a lot of short sighted commentary the past week or two from some of my colleagues wrt ENSO saying things like "oh I don't see any El Nino coming, the models show "x" or the subsurface waters aren't that warm yet!" Unfortunately, they have no idea what's about to hit them, especially if we don't get a big easterly trade wind surge to weaken this monster Kelvin Wave that's building in the West Pacific. Paul Roundy (who's an expert on the MJO, tropical-extratropical interactions & tropical variability) is taking notice of how we're mirroring the evolution of 1997 albeit we're starting from a cooler base state

Late 1996-early 1997 U Wind & OHC anomalies via TAO buoys.

DV2dp-6W4AUTrfc.jpg


This year.
DV2dXUXX0AAP275.jpg


Another big westerly wind burst is looming on the horizon by day 4 after the current one temporarily abates in a few days which will add more fuel to the fire.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif



In addition to favorable background forcing from a cool Atlantic MDR and record +PMM, everyday the MJO sits w/ this kind of amplitude in phase 7, the dramatic unfettering background music gets louder and louder for an oncoming El Nino and soon it's going to be too loud for most to ignore.
 
I think that'll about do it for the winter. Looks like another cool early spring.


Webberweather53 said:
For the 11th day in a row, the MJO remains above 3.0 sigma in phase 7.

View attachment 3992

In terms of amplitude and persistence, there's literally no valid comparison for this event at this time of the year other than March 1997 & 2015 which preceded Super El Nino events, and rightfully so. I've seen a lot of short sighted commentary the past week or two from some of my colleagues wrt ENSO saying things like "oh I don't see any El Nino coming, the models show "x" or the subsurface waters aren't that warm yet!" Unfortunately, they have no idea what's about to hit them, especially if we don't get a big easterly trade wind surge to weaken this monster Kelvin Wave that's building in the West Pacific. Paul Roundy (who's an expert on the MJO, tropical-extratropical interactions & tropical variability) is taking notice of how we're mirroring the evolution of 1997 albeit we're starting from a cooler base state

Late 1996-early 1997 U Wind & OHC anomalies via TAO buoys.

View attachment 3993


This year.
View attachment 3994


Another big westerly wind burst is looming on the horizon by day 4 after the current one temporarily abates in a few days which will add more fuel to the fire.

View attachment 3991



In addition to favorable background forcing from a cool Atlantic MDR and record +PMM, everyday the MJO sits w/ this kind of amplitude in phase 7, the dramatic unfettering background music gets louder and louder for an oncoming El Nino and soon it's going to be too loud for most to ignore.
Click to expand...

Glad to hear we may be moving on to a Nino next year, but I don't want anything to do with a super Nino. Too warm. A nice moderate will do just fine...lol. Along with getting into the solar minimum, I'm rather hopeful for next year.
 
Webberweather53 said:
For the 11th day in a row, the MJO remains above 3.0 sigma in phase 7.

View attachment 3992

In terms of amplitude and persistence, there's literally no valid comparison for this event at this time of the year other than March 1997 & 2015 which preceded Super El Nino events, and rightfully so. I've seen a lot of short sighted commentary the past week or two from some of my colleagues wrt ENSO saying things like "oh I don't see any El Nino coming, the models show "x" or the subsurface waters aren't that warm yet!" Unfortunately, they have no idea what's about to hit them, especially if we don't get a big easterly trade wind surge to weaken this monster Kelvin Wave that's building in the West Pacific. Paul Roundy (who's an expert on the MJO, tropical-extratropical interactions & tropical variability) is taking notice of how we're mirroring the evolution of 1997 albeit we're starting from a cooler base state

Late 1996-early 1997 U Wind & OHC anomalies via TAO buoys.

View attachment 3993


This year.
View attachment 3994


Another big westerly wind burst is looming on the horizon by day 4 after the current one temporarily abates in a few days which will add more fuel to the fire.

View attachment 3991



In addition to favorable background forcing from a cool Atlantic MDR and record +PMM, everyday the MJO sits w/ this kind of amplitude in phase 7, the dramatic unfettering background music gets louder and louder for an oncoming El Nino and soon it's going to be too loud for most to ignore.
Click to expand...

I know it’s way to early to tell and I don’t want to see a strong or super El Niño...


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1. Per this morning's MDA forecast for KATL of 54.7 for Feb. (7.5 warmer than normal or near the normal for March), that would be the 4th warmest Feb on record going back to 1879! They even have a shot at 2nd warmest because a 55.0 would put it in alone in 2nd place. The only one which is as of now appears somewhat safe is 2017's 56.1. So, thank goodness last Feb. was that warm or else we could now be seriously challenging for the warmest on record!

2. Even with the current very warm Feb that is projected, it as mentioned looks to still be cooler than one year ago. Assuming that holds, Feb would be the 9th month in a row that is colder than one year ago at KATL. Yay!

3. The EPO has been negative every day since 1/31 and is forecasted to remain negative for the next 10 days. Despite this, it has been and will remain warm in the SE US. This is but one example that shows that the correlation of -EPO to cold in the SE US is fairly weak. It is a much stronger signal for cold in the Midwest. OTOH, the PNA has turned negative and isn't expected to turn solidly positive anytime soon. The +PNA, though not nearly perfectly correlated (nothing ever is), is a much stronger signal for SE cold than is the -EPO. The -AO is also a strong predictor of SE cold.
 
1300m said:
I've lived in NC 32 years now. Any winter where I receive a 6" snowfall automatically qualifies for an A- in my book even if every other day of the entire winter were above average with no additional frozen precip. However, I saw snow 3 or 4 other times, and RDU set the all-time record for most hours below-freezing and we were below normal for NDJ. This is a solid A to borderline A+ winter for me considering the below-freezing record that was set in addition to the big snowfall events (even if I only cashed in on one).
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I still give it a C. One good storm, and I got 6 inches of snow out of it, which is average for winter. C is average. Better than nothing, but it seems we either get nothing at all, or one good storm the past few years. And it seems the majority of winters since 2000 have been like that here.
 
If I were to grade this winter strictly on wintry precip. I obviously could already say A+ in MBY with the 2" of SN/IP being 1,000% of normal as well as nearly 0.50" of ZR, which is at least 1,000% of its normal as well. Having the coldest week in 40 years during and around that winter storm made it extra special as it allowed the SN/IP to stick around for as much as a whopping 5 days in shady areas!. I'm not sure how I'd grade this winter, overall, and won't be able to til it is finished, but it will surely be a high grade.
 
MBell said:
Quite a bit cooler than I expected today. 46 and cloudy. Forecast high was 64 now its 55. 50 tomorrow(was 65 at one point lol). Blah.


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Forecasted high today for here was 45 degrees. Currently it’s 37 degrees as of 1:34pm so I doubt we crack 40 today. Also we had freezing rain/sleet with a tiny bit of flurries at the end come through around 1AM this morning. It wasn’t much but the roads were icy. For the most part I’ve been able to avoid well above average temps for more then a few days but that is supposedly going to change this week. Highs in the upper 50s tomorrow then mid 60s Wednesday and the first 70 degree temps since November on Thursday. Friday it’s back to the 40s which is fine with me.
 
Webberweather53 said:
For the 11th day in a row, the MJO remains above 3.0 sigma in phase 7.

View attachment 3992

In terms of amplitude and persistence, there's literally no valid comparison for this event at this time of the year other than March 1997 & 2015 which preceded Super El Nino events, and rightfully so. I've seen a lot of short sighted commentary the past week or two from some of my colleagues wrt ENSO saying things like "oh I don't see any El Nino coming, the models show "x" or the subsurface waters aren't that warm yet!" Unfortunately, they have no idea what's about to hit them, especially if we don't get a big easterly trade wind surge to weaken this monster Kelvin Wave that's building in the West Pacific. Paul Roundy (who's an expert on the MJO, tropical-extratropical interactions & tropical variability) is taking notice of how we're mirroring the evolution of 1997 albeit we're starting from a cooler base state

Late 1996-early 1997 U Wind & OHC anomalies via TAO buoys.

View attachment 3993


This year.
View attachment 3994


Another big westerly wind burst is looming on the horizon by day 4 after the current one temporarily abates in a few days which will add more fuel to the fire.

View attachment 3991



In addition to favorable background forcing from a cool Atlantic MDR and record +PMM, everyday the MJO sits w/ this kind of amplitude in phase 7, the dramatic unfettering background music gets louder and louder for an oncoming El Nino and soon it's going to be too loud for most to ignore.
Click to expand...
Hey Eric, it looks like it's gone down from 3 sigma to 2+ sigma. Correct me if I'm wrong I'm looking at the mjo forecast and it looks like it hasn't been at 3.0 sigma since about 2 days ago. Clarify please, thanks.
 
GaWx said:
If I were to grade this winter strictly on wintry precip. I obviously could already say A+ in MBY with the 2" of SN/IP being 1,000% of normal as well as nearly 0.50" of ZR, which is at least 1,000% of its normal as well. Having the coldest week in 40 years during and around that winter storm made it extra special as it allowed the SN/IP to stick around for as much as a whopping 5 days in shady areas!. I'm not sure how I'd grade this winter, overall, and won't be able to til it is finished, but it will surely be a high grade.
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If I were to grade the winter, thus far, it would be a B -- (minus minus) since we did get some good cold, albeit too short in duration and nothing earth-shattering, and missed frozen by 30 or so miles. If February pans out as progged, it'll be a low grade C.
However, there's one part of this winter that deserves a resounding A++ (plus plus) and that's all the folks who contributed to a really lively and well considered discussion, whether the outlook was bad, or good, or bad again ... in that sequential progression ... ;)
 
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Clayton said:
Hey Eric, it looks like it's gone down from 3 sigma to 2+ sigma. Correct me if I'm wrong I'm looking at the mjo forecast and it looks like it hasn't been at 3.0 sigma since about 2 days ago. Clarify please, thanks.
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The MJO hasn't moved at all since yesterday it's still above 3.0 sigma
 
Euro has 70s up and down the east coast in the extended. I hope it's right . My power bill was 323 last month. I had three separate events this winter with the big one in early December. I give it an A+ for sure

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Clayton said:
No, I'm saying look at the forecast map. If you look to the left side where it has 1 2 3 and 4 I thought that stood for the sigma.
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MJO amplitude is determined by the sums of the squares of the amplitude on both the sides of the diagram which is all taken under the square root because in order to average standardized data like the PCs that make up the MJO you have to do this otherwise it's not the same. Averaging standardized numbers doesn't follow the same procedure as actual numbers
 
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