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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

For those of us in NC, don’t give up on winter yet. 06z GFS has a decent CAD setup for the western half of NC and isn’t that far off for RDU. The 0z CMC and Euro have the storm but tracks it north over the mid-atlantic. The 06z ICON shifted south as well FWIW.
 
Winter isn't over yet esp for the upper south, might have to deal w/ severe on the front end of this but there's a pretty clear window of opportunity showing up at the last possible minute as we get to the very end of February and into March as a Scandinavian high cuts off from the mean flow and retrogrades towards Greenland and eventually northern Canada to become a "west-based -NAO"

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269D4E25-EEC2-41FC-98A5-A8B4B3726259.png Latest total snowfall for the whole winter: from NGa weather: The haves and have nots! Ouch CAE
 
6F620C5D-4099-485E-8FC1-41021BB0B91F.png Small window for this Sunday! From 6z
 
whamby said:
still predicting some dippage so all hope is not lost, I suppose... figure early March to be at least in a 'colder' pattern.
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Don’t look for it
 
We need a couple of powerful LP areas to come across the south . Right now I think the cold air is up for grabs when the Polar vortex relaxes . I think North America looks most favorable, and probably the western half early, but a big storm in the southeast after the 24th could bring the cold air this way. Right now the mid lats around the world are fairly mild. the coldest air is in N canada into the polar region this side of the pole.
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Webberweather53 said:
Winter isn't over yet esp for the upper south, might have to deal w/ severe on the front end of this but there's a pretty clear window of opportunity showing up at the last possible minute as we get to the very end of February and into March as a Scandinavian high cuts off from the mean flow and retrogrades towards Greenland and eventually northern Canada to become a "west-based -NAO"

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This Greenland block is going to squash the SE US ridge, climatologically speaking as I noted a week or two ago, March is often more favorable relative to average to squeak out big winter storms here in NC during a La Nina going back even into the early-mid 20th century.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This Greenland block is going to squash the SE US ridge, climatologically speaking as I noted a week or two ago, March is often more favorable relative to average to squeak out big winter storms here in NC during a La Nina going back even into the early-mid 20th century.
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whamby said:
ain't looking at nothing but mathematical models predicting stuff.. lol it do what it do.
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-NAO is great for severe, hence his post!:rolleyes:
 
I personally think there will be some more cold later, maybe even a touch of wintery weather for some. After we accept and embrace the warm and its a shock to the system. I remember Easters being cold and the wind breaking my face off hunting easter eggs with my kids. 70's is a little too wierd but the propane for this old house is outrageous so I am torn. I would rather snow be the reason for delaying our house being built but right when they are ready for grading...we get these friggin monsoons!! Please no severe until we get out of this scarry creeky house. Yikes. Such a strange winter...
 
GaWx said:
1. Per this morning's MDA forecast for KATL of 54.7 for Feb. (7.5 warmer than normal or near the normal for March), that would be the 4th warmest Feb on record going back to 1879! They even have a shot at 2nd warmest because a 55.0 would put it in alone in 2nd place. The only one which is as of now appears somewhat safe is 2017's 56.1. So, thank goodness last Feb. was that warm or else we could now be seriously challenging for the warmest on record!
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In this morning's forecast from MDA, Feb at KATL has been warmed from yesterday's 54.7 to 55.2 (8 warmer than normal), which would be the 2nd warmest Feb going back to 1879 and cooler than only Feb of 2017's 56.1!
 
SD said:
First week of mega March looking good

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Yup thinking first 2-3 weeks of March is going to be the time frame of any wintry precip it occurs then... After that warmer temps should begin to prevail again. That said been dupped on long range before

... Carry on


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That vortex over Hudson Bay has been just rotting there but GEFS showing quite the flip with HP extending from the conus all the way to EurAsia.

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Should a "Magnificent March" thread already be created? There have been more posts in here about March than Feb recently since Feb. is already getting pretty close to toast for most of the SE.
 
Kylo said:
Stout -PNA no match for a -NAO. East based -NAO at that in March of 83.
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That's because we were in the midst of one of the strongest El Niños of the last few centuries, it should be no surprise that the SER and -PNA was non-existent in March 1983. This year is much different
 
Kylo said:
83 big southeast snow above I posted had -PNA. Trough out west is fine, lot of our great -NAO winters, mainly back in the 60's, had -PNA. We won't be fighting NW flow but rather would need the NAO to compress heights enough in the east.
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I don't know where you're getting your March of 1983 PNA info from. Actually, there was a strong +PNA in March of 1983 as a whole and there was at least a solid +PNA every day of the month including on and around the 3/24/1983 snowstorm:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii
 
The only real severe threat won’t be until pop up summertime storms start in May-July. As per usual, the -NAO takes over in April, west ridge , east trough dominate the pattern, snooze fest on severe. And if Nino starts ramping up, Hurricane season will be a dud also.
 
Tarheel1 said:
The only real severe threat won’t be until pop up summertime storms start in May-July. As per usual, the -NAO takes over in April, west ridge , east trough dominate the pattern, snooze fest on severe. And if Nino starts ramping up, Hurricane season will be a dud also.
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NAO goes in the tank just in time to kill all of the azaleas before the Masters. Never fails
 
GaWx said:
I don't know where you're getting your March of 1983 PNA info from. Actually, there was a strong +PNA in March of 1983 as a whole and there was at least a solid +PNA every day of the month including on and around the 3/24/1983 snowstorm:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii
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Thanks for the correction. Always had in my mind that 60/62 and 83 were -PNA/-NAO producing. Missed the ridging up in AK and just focused on trough in west for 83.
 
Lol at the difference between CMC and GFS at 108. Euro 00z looked more like the CMC but warmer. CAD areas may need to keep an eye on this one still.
 
-PNA/-NAO cold neutral-NINA Februarys (which is what we're soon to move towards) are favorable for a lot of open gulf setups and severe weather in the southeast especially over climatologically favored areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, etc.
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Nomanslandva said:
Lol at the difference between CMC and GFS at 108. Euro 00z looked more like the CMC but warmer. CAD areas may need to keep an eye on this one still.
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UK might be good for your area. Sliding 1030hp so maybe VA/NC border counties can get something frozen.

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