This actually sounds encouraging, from GSP disco.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed: On Saturday, high pressure will once again
drift off the East Coast, and a
shortwave trough will begin to
approach it from the west. However, this event looks to pan out a
little differently for our area than the one in the middle of the
week. The models have come into reasonably good agreement on its
evolution. The
shortwave will induce
cyclogenesis along the warm
front near the western Gulf Coast, and the developing system looks
to pass across or south of our
CWFA on Sunday. The high will be in
position to support the possible development of an in-situ wedge
as precip spreads in from the west Sunday morning. Accordingly
model thermodynamic profiles and partial thickness trends suggest
a full range of p-types are possible Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Temps are still expected to warm enough for a change to all
rain for the afternoon, though guidance may not yet be taking the
full effect of the wedge into account. As the low begins to move up
the East Coast Sunday night, the wraparound
moisture and
CAA could
re-introduce snow over the mountains and NW
NC Piedmont. Confidence
is still low on any snow or ice accumulations, though we are getting
into the part of the year in which freezing rain is climatologically
unusual. Nonetheless a large portion of the area could be impacted
Saturday night into Sunday with snow and sleet; current model
QPF
suggests appreciable travel issues if p-types pan out as expected.
After a brief reprieve late Monday and Tuesday, the
GFS and EC
both depict clipper-induced
cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley and
increasing
PoPs Tuesday night. This event currently looks more of
a rain-snow split. For now we will advertise only slight-chance
PoPs and confine snow to the mountains.
