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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Storm5 said:
For the record I have an extremely over the top cold bias so I will defend the cold until at least mid March

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You don't say... LOL. I have a bad feeling about February in general, and of course that's because of last year and the fact I think we had our snow for the season. We'd have to be lucky I feel to get another big system. You never know, since the models are clueless, and that lead to a good snow last time. Everyone going all in on mid-month is a bit silly I think since it's so far away and it's bound to change. For all we know, the PNA could never get tall enough to give a good snowstorm for the rest of winter.
 
I know we've had some plenty good storms here the middle of February. The past few years we've had lots of threats the week of Valentine's Day.
 
Storm5 said:
The eps has been busting too warm all year so that's no a surprise at all . Just seems kinda silly to be worried with so much volatility going on . Maybe we do end up much warmer in February but a few runs in my opinion is hardly anything to worry about. Now if next week things still look warmer then yeah it's time to be concerned

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Safe to say models are nowhere near in agreement, and people are getting upset due to their eyeballs being glued to Operational runs...the GFS is a poor model and runs 4x daily. Euro runs 2x Daily. EPS 2x daily, GEFS 4x Daily. That's 12 model runs to get upset about a day. Big picture looks about as good as we can hope for. Like to said, EPS busted in LR horribly and will likely do so again.


Kylo said:
Not sure what happens after this but this looks fairly good. PV in SE Canada with a stout -AO block and a +PNA.

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Jan 2014... If folks get upset with this look they need clinical help. People see red over the SE and think SE Ridge. That's not a ridge. Those dark +18-24dam anomalies over the atlanic, if that was over the SE, then yeah...panic time. But the model is trying to make sense of the entire NH pattern here, which leads to elongation of both the western ridge to the SE and the atlantic ridge to the SW, giving us the "cupping" pattern under the PV. As we get closer, and as the Euro EPS has shown, those ++Anoms will disappear over the SE, leaving the PV elongated with blue extending into GA. Just wait it out.
 
The MJO usually has issues penetrating deep into the central Pacific during La Nina events, that may explain why both the GEFS & EPS are holding the MJO back in phase 7 and never bringing it out to phase 8 which would argue for warmth in the longer term
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Webberweather53 said:
The MJO usually has issues penetrating deep into the central Pacific during La Nina events, that may explain why both the GEFS & EPS are holding the MJO back in phase 7 and never bringing it out to phase 8 which would argue for warmth in the longer term
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Now are you saying it has issues due to having seen this before, research, and data backing it, or just a guess? If it does happen to make a turn to the COD before reaching 8 I'm punting winter and taking what I got.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Now are you saying it has issues due to having seen this before, research, and data backing it, or just a guess? If it does happen to make a turn to the COD before reaching 8 I'm punting winter and taking what I got.
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Hell, you have done received what? 10 inches of snow? Lol if that was the case for me. It wouldn't hurt my feelings if it was 80 degrees the rest of Winter. I'm over here basically on my knees begging for just a inch of snow. Haha but I know we all want February to deliver the goods!
 
Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.
 
Shawn said:
Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.
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Agreed... CMC has a strong tendency to overdo ice storms just as it does with TC's imo, IF I had all the ice and all the TC's the Canadian has shone just over the last year NC would be a desolate place
 
Shawn said:
Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.
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I agree. I mentioned that the CMC has a decent below freezing area at 925mb to the surface for a large amount of the storm. That would drop probably up to an inch of sleet and about 0.1 to 0.2 inches of ZR verbatim on the CMC.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Now are you saying it has issues due to having seen this before, research, and data backing it, or just a guess? If it does happen to make a turn to the COD before reaching 8 I'm punting winter and taking what I got.
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There's an extensive body of literature on how ENSO modulates MJO activity especially regarding how deep the MJO is capable of progressing beyond the international dateline. Climatoloigcal mean SSTs east of the international dateline are often insufficient to readily support deep cB convection. In a La Niña the eastern edge of the sufficiently warm SSTs (27-27.5C ish) shift closer to the Maritime Continent and without these warm SSTs critical processes such as Wave CISK and wind-induced surface heat exchanges and surface evaporation and uptake by the atmosphere are reduced. This favors attenuation of the MJO into a faster high frequency convecticely coupled kelvin wave before it's able to get deep into the central Pacific. As we know from recent observation, the GFS has consistently been beating the Euro with the MJO, however the past few GFS forecasts have clearly nudged to the European with a slightly more dampened MJO event that struggles to reach phase 8
 
Shawn said:
Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.
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Shawn what's your gut feeling around here for getting a decent winter event before end of Feb?
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's an extensive body of literature on how ENSO modulates MJO activity especially regarding how deep the MJO is capable of progressing beyond the international dateline. Climatoloigcal mean SSTs east of the international dateline are often insufficient to readily support deep cB convection. In a La Niña the eastern edge of the sufficiently warm SSTs (27-27.5C ish) shift closer to the Maritime Continent and without these warm SSTs critical processes such as Wave CISK and wind-induced surface heat exchanges and surface evaporation and uptake by the atmosphere are reduced. This favors attenuation of the MJO into a faster high frequency convecticely coupled kelvin wave before it's able to get deep into the central Pacific. As we know from recent observation, the GFS has consistently been beating the Euro with the MJO, however the past few GFS forecasts have clearly nudged to the European with a slightly more dampened MJO event that struggles to reach phase 8
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So are you saying we should be more concerned about a warmer Feb. now?


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Spurs up said:
Shawn what's your gut feeling around here for getting a decent winter event before end of Feb?
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I had said a week or so ago, I was starting to see signs of Gulf activity on various modeling along with highs in the Northeast. That is our key, and I think we have a shot through early March. Yesterday's 12z GEFS suite started to beat the drum on the idea, and I'm just waiting for the Euro/EPS to start throwing the idea out there.

Overall, the storm track becomes more favorable by the 8-10th of February for us, and that's all we can hope on.
 
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