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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

And then happy hour GFS has a pure rain event for all who get anything from the system. while 18z NAM much colder with ice into north NC.
 
7A02AD24-FB56-4434-8765-112FF6F58248.png Well 18z GFS is showing a soaking over the next couple weeks for the Mid-South. Not sure if totals will be this high but rain will be the discussion.
 
NWMSGuy said:
View attachment 4032 Well 18z GFS is showing a soaking over the next couple weeks for the Mid-South. Not sure if totals will be this high but rain will be the discussion.
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Unfortunately I tend to think the next couple of weeks is going to turn into about 3 or 4 months. This has another Mississippi River flooding of 2011 written all over it.
 
So did the ocean move within a 100 miles from Chattanooga while I wasn't looking? It's Feb and there isn't anything close to a freeze on my ten day forecast. Global warming isn't real? BS, find me a historical month with so many warm lows in Feb in a row.. And so many months in the past 5 years with AN temps. We had one incredible cold spell in January.. but CHA's coldest morning was 8. Same pattern 30-40 years ago we would have been close to zero or below. Rant over, lol Delete away mods :)
 
whamby said:
So did the ocean move within a 100 miles from Chattanooga while I wasn't looking? It's Feb and there isn't anything close to a freeze on my ten day forecast. Global warming isn't real? BS, find me a historical month with so many warm lows in Feb in a row.. And so many months in the past 5 years with AN temps. We had one incredible cold spell in January.. but CHA's coldest morning was 8. Same pattern 30-40 years ago we would have been close to zero or below. Rant over, lol Delete away mods :)
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Hey whamby, with all due respect, had we had littld bit of snow cover in early January records would have been shattered. No doubt winters have seemed a bit warmer here as of late but keep in mind we live on a tiny spec in the middle of an Infinate universe. We can't begin to fathom the various climate cycles that exist here on earth. I'm in the camp that we have very little control of our existence. With that said, bring on the 80 degree heat :(
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Hey whamby, with all due respect, had we had littld bit of snow cover in early January records would have been shattered. No doubt winters have seemed a bit warmer here as of late but keep in mind we live on a tiny spec in the middle of an Infinate universe. We can't begin to fathom the various climate cycles that exist here on earth. I'm in the camp that we have very little control of our existence. With that said, bring on the 80 degree heat :(
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and scientists on this 'tiny spec' have found extra solar planets in far away galaxies, using that well-respected tool, Science.
 
whamby said:
and scientists on this 'tiny spec' have found extra solar planets in far away galaxies, using that well-respected tool, Science.
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Whamby, I believe we have a Global warming thread in progress below so we don't have to fill up all our discussions on our current weather topics with this impossible argument. As for science, I love it. The best part is when theories are proven scientifically using the known laws of science (ie the first and second laws of thermodynamics).going through all the steps of experimentation before the theoretical conclusion is accepted. Unfortunately, it seems this truth seeking process has been abandoned and the sheep flock to what the media force feeds for their cronies' well being. Just follow the money.
 
whamby said:
So did the ocean move within a 100 miles from Chattanooga while I wasn't looking? It's Feb and there isn't anything close to a freeze on my ten day forecast. Global warming isn't real? BS, find me a historical month with so many warm lows in Feb in a row.. And so many months in the past 5 years with AN temps. We had one incredible cold spell in January.. but CHA's coldest morning was 8. Same pattern 30-40 years ago we would have been close to zero or below. Rant over, lol Delete away mods :)
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Just 3 February’s ago your winter looked very cold. Also looking at many winters before that you had plenty of below normal temps and lots of above average snowfall. Claiming global warming is real because it’s been warm in your backyard the last 2 February’s is not a good argument. I’m not arguing it either way but if i was and decided to use your towns temps and snowfall as you are then I’d say global warming isn’t happening based on the data I looked at. I think to many people only remember warmth in the winter and quickly forget the snow and cold. I mean it was just under a month ago that we had a massive cold snap That was supposed to be a torch month. We live in the south and when we get above normal temps in late winter it’s not going to feel like winter but more like spring. Yes last winter was a torch and this February is looking the same but you can find many back to back winters over the last 100 years that had warmer then normal temps. Here’s your February 2015 monthly records for Chattanooga Tennessee.

3cafe5057e5a68dcc8ea360087bbd2d3.jpg



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Last Feb, KATL had its warmest on record back to 1879, 56.1. The very latest MDA forecast has warmed them to 56.2, which would be a new record warmest Feb. and it would be a full 9 F warmer than average! So, KATL is looking more and more likely to have its two warmest Febs since 1879 during the last 2 winters!

Note that this warmth is occurring despite a month with a -EPO on most days. This is but one example that shows that the correlation between a -EPO and cold in the SE is rather weak. The correlation is much stronger in the Midwest.
 
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Apparently the correlation between the much loved -NAO, and cold/trough in the East is very weak also, as is phase 8,1,2, of the MJO, in relation to the same. :(
 
GaWx said:
I forgot to add that the forecasted 56.2 for KATL in Feb 2018 would make it the warmest month on record (back to 1879) for any month of met winter! History in the making? At least we have some historical excitement to go along with the warmth.
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Yippee
 
Well, it's now looking like this feb could go down in the record books for warmest ever, or even top five. days of 80s in Georgia, 70s tennessee.
 
whamby said:
Well, it's now looking like this feb could go down in the record books for warmest ever, or even top five. days of 80s in Georgia, 70s tennessee.
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And there’s no El Niño on roids to blame it on this time.


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GaWx said:
I forgot to add that the forecasted 56.2 for KATL in Feb 2018 would make it the warmest month on record (back to 1879) for any month of met winter! History in the making? At least we have some historical excitement to go along with the warmth.
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MDA has today warmed the FEB KATL forecast up from 56.2 to an amazing 56.8 F, which would not only be the warmest Feb on record back to 1879 by 0.7 F but also would be the largest warming from Jan to Feb on record, 16.4 F!
 
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GaWx said:
MDA has today warmed the FEB KATL forecast up to an amazing 56.8 F, which would not only be the warmest met winter month on record back to 1879 by 0.7 F but also would be the largest warming from Jan to Feb on record, 16.4 F!
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Ouch ... :eek:
 
GaWx said:
MDA has today warmed the FEB KATL forecast up from 56.2 to an amazing 56.8 F, which would not only be the warmest met winter month on record back to 1879 by 0.7 F but also would be the largest warming from Jan to Feb on record, 16.4 F!
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Where did February 2017 rank? I thought it was one of the warmest on record for a lot of locations. Right before February started I thought at the least we would not approach the warmth we saw last February.

compday.AKZd5m0Mx9.gif
 
Kylo said:
Where did February 2017 rank? I thought it was one of the warmest on record for a lot of locations. Right before February started I thought at the least we would not approach the warmth we saw last February.

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1. Correction: At 56.8 F, MDA's latest KATL's forecast for Feb., it would by 0.7 be the warmest Feb on record. However, it actually would NOT be no the warmest met winter month on record, which is Dec of 2016's 57.6 F. I apologize for my error. That being said, with further warming still possible, getting to 57.6+ is not out of the realm of reasonable possibilities as the forecast has already warmed over one full degree.over just the last few days of forecasts.

2. Feb of 2017 is currently the warmest Feb on record at 56.1.
 
IF I get to freezing during the wedge and precip tomorrow, that looks like the last freeze in the foreseeable future. As of this am, we were only like +2.6f or something but there is some raging warmth on the models.

Serious question, is it time for pre-emergent :(
 
Nomanslandva said:
IF I get to freezing during the wedge and precip tomorrow, that looks like the last freeze in the foreseeable future. As of this am, we were only like +2.6f or something but there is some raging warmth on the models.

Serious question, is it time for pre-emergent :(
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You have an interesting day coming up tomorrow, a little model battle going on with the NAM still giving you some love.....hope it works out for you!
 
whamby said:
Well, it's now looking like this feb could go down in the record books for warmest ever, or even top five. days of 80s in Georgia, 70s tennessee.
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Huh? I’ve had one day in the 70s this month and that was yesterday. I’ve only had 3 days out of 15 that were in the 60s. It’s 46 degrees here at 1:43pm and tomorrow’s high is supposed to be 44.Now I don’t know about temps in Georgia because I don’t live there but here in Middle Tennessee we are far from any records of 70 degree days. Next week we are forecasted to have two days in the 70s and then back to 50s after that. There’s no doubt we will be above average this month but it’s far from record heat so far.
Here’s my temps so far this month.

Feb 1 H 51.8 L 23
Feb 2 H 27.4 L 15.8
Feb 3 H 45.1 L 18.5
Feb 4 H 48.3 L 25
Feb 5 H 35 L 22.1
Feb 6 H 46.2 L 33.9
Feb 7 H 40.6 L 28.8
Feb 8 H 43.7 L 22
Feb 9 H 61.7 L 27.9
Feb 10 H 58.1 L 47
Feb 11 H 58.8 L 32
Feb 12 H 39.2 L 30.1
Feb 13 H 55.5 L 35.6
Feb 14 H 61.1 L 53
Feb 15 H 75.3 L 61.5

Now my backyard doesn’t represent the whole state but neither does anyone else’s. I haven’t averaged out my monthly totals yet but I bet it’s somewhere near normal overall so far. My average high now is 50 so other then 2 really warm days next week anything in the 50s isn’t that far above normal at this point.
 
I will add to my post from above that the 12z euro does look quite toasty early next week and for the remainder of the month. It actually shows 3 days of 70s next week before another brief cool down. I’m not trying to bash whamby but just wanted to point out that what’s going on in his or her backyard doesn’t represent what’s happened in all of Tennessee this month. It will be interesting to see where we end up at the end of the month. Especially the far south and far north as the warm/cold temp cut off has been sharp.
 
olhausen said:
I will add to my post from above that the 12z euro does look quite toasty early next week and for the remainder of the month. It actually shows 3 days of 70s next week before another brief cool down. I’m not trying to bash whamby but just wanted to point out that what’s going on in his or her backyard doesn’t represent what’s happened in all of Tennessee this month. It will be interesting to see where we end up at the end of the month. Especially the far south and far north as the warm/cold temp cut off has been sharp.
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I have 8 out of the next 10 days with highs 65 or higher, with lows in the 50s and 60s, if that verifies, Feb will end up way on the AB side. Eastern Tn more affected by the SE ridge than west tennessee. Georgia is forecast to be even warmer. Could it change, or modify, sure? Anyway, checkmate. Go away.
 
Brent said:
I'm gonna be real impressed if NYC proper gets much more than a couple slushy inches of snow would take crazy rates to overcome the warm temps i think
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RGEM has LI all rain but the city looks like all snow. Nothing like riding the line. NAM looks better so hug the NAM:weenie: 18z RGEM shifted the snow line a little south for me so i'll hope fore a little.
 
metwannabe said:
You have an interesting day coming up tomorrow, a little model battle going on with the NAM still giving you some love.....hope it works out for you!
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Yea, going to be a close call. I think I am about 25% of normal this year for snow so need a little help. Some heavy rates close, hanging hopes on dynamics:weenie:
 
Brent said:
I'm gonna be real impressed if NYC proper gets much more than a couple slushy inches of snow would take crazy rates to overcome the warm temps i think
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Brent,
Next winter, we need you traveling a lot to points on the other side of the Western Continental Divide (seems like Chi-Town and NYC get slushy when you're there, so if you go west for work maybe they stay warm and we'll deep freeze east). Talk about straw grasping 9 months in advance ... LOL ... :eek:
Best and JK,
Phil
 
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