Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That low a little me SE and we’re game

That double barrel look is killing us on the rain/frozen line. Need that thing south tracking through the gulf. Still time for changes, but I don't see much at this point to cause much concern for folks along that boundary. Certainly subject to change though

This is starting to look like one of the coldest rains many of us have seen in a long long time. WNC should do fine. This is right in their wheelhouse

 

[GaStorm]

For some reason the 12z GFS skips from 108 to 126 on TT. Not sure if anyone else sees that?

 

[dsaur]

Pretty sure the airport is 2 so I would imagine a bit more up our way.

I haven't hit my yearly avg in 10 years, so I'm waiting on a solid pounding to make up for all my angst Been waiting on that for...well, ten years, lol, and before that was spring storms, that don't really count since they are gone almost before they happen. I mean, can you count snow that's melting as it falls? I guess you can but 4 inches and still patches of ground showing, just doesn't seem like the real deal. The real deal to me is total coverage that lasts at least a few days...so I guess my last decent storm was in the 90's....do ya'll feel my pain??? I mean, I got three inches in the blizzard, but it all blew away, so it was like a foot in the banked up places, and nothing much else where. Dang, I think I'm about the cry again.....

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

12z GFS ticked sifnifigantly north on super bowl Sunday. Looks like snow to sleet/ZR to heavy cold rain for WNC. Yikes

 

[ATLwxfan]

The GFS is trending NW, so it's likely going to be heavy rain at game time for almost everyone in the SE.

I mean we are probably due for a miss to the north. That would be more in line with the norm. Still a good event for TN and parts of NC.


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[Stormlover]

 

[coachdake]

My eyes are shifting to that system starting at the end of next week.

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

 

[GaStorm]

I haven't hit my yearly avg in 10 years, so I'm waiting on a solid pounding to make up for all my angst Been waiting on that for...well, ten years, lol, and before that was spring storms, that don't really count since they are gone almost before they happen. I mean, can you count snow that's melting as it falls? I guess you can but 4 inches and still patches of ground showing, just doesn't seem like the real deal. The real deal to me is total coverage that lasts at least a few days...so I guess my last decent storm was in the 90's....do ya'll feel my pain??? I mean, I got three inches in the blizzard, but it all blew away, so it was like a foot in the banked up places, and nothing much else where. Dang, I think I'm about the cry again.....

Wow that's no good Tony. Hope you make up for it with a big sleet storm before we close out the winter!

 

[ForsythSnow]

That double barrel look is killing us on the rain/frozen line. Need that thing south tracking through the gulf. Still time for changes, but I don't see much at this point to cause much concern for folks along that boundary. Certainly subject to change though

This is starting to look like one of the coldest rains many of us have seen in a long long time. WNC should do fine. This is right in their wheelhouse

I don't see a double barrel.

The mess is in the energy and no tall ridge out west. Without that ridge being tall out west, it just kind of slides down and never goes neutral or digs deep enough. Not deep enough = cold rain for all.

 

[SCweather]

Seems like our eyes will keep shifting and shifting until next thing you know, flowers are blooming. Ohio valley looks like the spot to be with where the jet stream sets up.

 

[GaStorm]

For some reason the 12z GFS skips from 108 to 126 on TT. Not sure if anyone else sees that?

This must of been temporary since it shows hours 114 and 120 now. Would be nice if it was due to significant changes in our favor. Oh well.

 

[ATLwxfan]

The fun forthcoming.




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[DadOfJax]

Well that was fun while it lasted. NW trend here we come. Wouldn't be surprised if the SVR fans had a system in the next 14 days or so.

 

[ForsythSnow]

CMC says it's ice time. Temps stay at or barely above freezing the entire duration of the precip in CAD areas, which could mean ice. However, after my fail of watching ice last time, I'll just watch it and not start any threads LOL.

 

[Jon]

Reminds me of the Jan 2014 pattern, which I believe was also a Weak La Nina...

Mid Jan 2014 also featured a -EPO lasting thru 2/6
2014 01 16 -118.52
2014 01 17 -113.89
2014 01 18 -45.26
2014 01 19 -78.89
2014 01 20 -165.85
2014 01 21 -144.10
2014 01 22 -175.17
2014 01 23 -268.82
2014 01 24 -346.30
2014 01 25 -359.74
2014 01 26 -330.50
2014 01 27 -303.46
2014 01 28 -222.42
2014 01 29 -125.07
2014 01 30 -148.99
2014 01 31 -205.04
2014 02 01 -233.79
2014 02 02 -237.32
2014 02 03 -188.77
2014 02 04 -167.69
2014 02 05 -199.05
2014 02 06 -136.11

that lead to a historic cold outbreak and 3 storms, the best of which came late Jan, then of course several ZR and snowfall storms Feb of that year as well, and winter events well into March.

 

[packfan98]

I'd take this low position in a heartbeat. Very different than the GFS.

 

[SCweather]

Reminds me of the Jan 2014 pattern, which I believe was also a Weak La Nina...

Mid Jan 2014 also featured a -EPO lasting thru 2/6
2014 01 16 -118.52
2014 01 17 -113.89
2014 01 18 -45.26
2014 01 19 -78.89
2014 01 20 -165.85
2014 01 21 -144.10
2014 01 22 -175.17
2014 01 23 -268.82
2014 01 24 -346.30
2014 01 25 -359.74
2014 01 26 -330.50
2014 01 27 -303.46
2014 01 28 -222.42
2014 01 29 -125.07
2014 01 30 -148.99
2014 01 31 -205.04
2014 02 01 -233.79
2014 02 02 -237.32
2014 02 03 -188.77
2014 02 04 -167.69
2014 02 05 -199.05
2014 02 06 -136.11

that lead to a historic cold outbreak and 3 storms, the best of which came late Jan, then of course several ZR and snowfall storms Feb of that year as well, and winter events well into March.

When you start talking 2014, you start getting me a little excited lol great winter. Learned a lot off that Winter.

 

[Brick Tamland]

CMC says it's ice time. Temps stay at or barely above freezing the entire duration of the precip in CAD areas, which could mean ice. However, after my fail of watching ice last time, I'll just watch it and not start any threads LOL.

Well, it's been a long time since Wake Co has had a good ice storm. We're due one of those more than we were a good snow storm.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Beginning to think week of Valentine's might bring the goods to the Deep South with good shot at some wintry mischief. Watching the upper level flow at 500mb + the 250-300mb jet senseing the STJ will roar to life. Watching closely to see if models continue to show this over the Pacific and of course the PV location setup


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