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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

That was a relatively ugly 12Z GFS run vs prior GFS runs with near normal temps in the 6-10 and also in the 11-15.. Hopefully it was just a bad burp.

Edit: Isn't there a special rule that allows a once a week substitution of the 12Z GFS for the Happy Hour for a toss? Please tell me this is correct. I promise I wouldn't also toss today's 18Z.
 
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GaWx said:
That was a relatively ugly 12Z GFS run vs prior GFS runs with near normal temps in the 6-10 and also in the 11-15.. Hopefully it was just a bad burp.

Edit: Isn't there a special rule that allows a once a week substitution of the 12Z GFS for the Happy Hour for a toss? Please tell me this is correct. I promise I wouldn't also toss today's 18Z.
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The GEFS have been trending this way since the 18z yesterday. No sure we can call this a burp...Time will have to be the judge of that.


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whatalife said:
The GEFS have been trending this way since the 18z yesterday. No sure we can call this a burp...Time will have to be the judge of that.
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You can add the 12Z GEFS to that warming trend list at least in the 6-10. 11-15 not out yet. I guess I could toss the 12Z GFS suite as a whole but I'd be tossing a trending run. So, I may withhold the toss.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't see a double barrel.
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_19.png
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_19.png

The mess is in the energy and no tall ridge out west. Without that ridge being tall out west, it just kind of slides down and never goes neutral or digs deep enough. Not deep enough = cold rain for all.
gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png
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That's what I get for going off surface maps
 
It looks like the 12Z GEFS 11-15 is also trending in a not so good direction. Aren't we allowed to toss an entire day's runs like once a month?
 
Someone help me understand why people are worried. All we've seen for the last two weeks are OP runs that are all over the place constantly flipping around and ensembles that have no consistency.



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GaWx said:
It looks like the 12Z GEFS 11-15 is also trending in a not so good direction. Aren't we allowed to toss an entire day's runs like once a month?
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Well we had to know this would moderate some because yesterday’s 12z GEFS was just unreal.


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Storm5 said:
Someone help me understand why people are worried. All we've seen for the last two weeks are OP runs that are all over the place constantly flipping around and ensembles that have no consistency.
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Unfortunately, the last few GEFS 6-15 runs have been trending warmer and the same could be said for the 0Z EPS 11-15.
 
GaWx said:
Unfortunately, the last few GEFS 6-15 runs have been trending warmer and the same could be said for the 0Z EPS 11-15.
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The eps has been busting too warm all year so that's no a surprise at all . Just seems kinda silly to be worried with so much volatility going on . Maybe we do end up much warmer in February but a few runs in my opinion is hardly anything to worry about. Now if next week things still look warmer then yeah it's time to be concerned

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I just remember in December we had the back and forth, but still, the 6z GFS (maybe even 0z) started a trend instead of flip flopping.
 
Storm5 said:
The eps has been busting too warm all year so that's no a surprise at all . Just seems kinda silly to be worried with so much volatility going on . Maybe we do end up much warmer in February but a few runs in my opinion is hardly anything to worry about. Now if next week things still look warmer then yeah it's time to be concerned

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But that was what was said by many on here last week.


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whatalife said:
But that was what was said by many on here last week.


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The gfs and gefs are the ones that were showing cold before mid month . As Larry and others have pointed out everything pointed to mid month and the last half February . The gfs is notorious for rushing pattern changes and was the only one really showing cold before mid February. Classic pattern change rush

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Storm5 said:
The gfs and gefs are the ones that were showing cold before mid month . As Larry and others have pointed out everything pointed to mid month and the last half February . The gfs is notorious for rushing pattern changes and was the only one really showing cold before mid February. Classic pattern change rush

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I'm worried if mid to late month will be good enough to really get the job done for a big dog for some who haven't gotten anything. Don't really see to many good storms mid to late month imo. That's what I think some on here are worried that even late month or so won't be good enough because by climatology standards, temps are moderating and there tends to be more cutters
 
Clayton said:
I'm worried if mid to late month will be good enough to really get the job done for a big dog for some who haven't gotten anything. Don't really see to many good storms mid to late month imo. That's what I think some on here are worried that even late month or so won't be good enough because by climatology standards, temps are moderating and there tends to be more cutters
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Worry away historically many on this board receive their biggest storms in late February into March

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Clayton said:
I'm worried if mid to late month will be good enough to really get the job done for a big dog for some who haven't gotten anything. Don't really see to many good storms mid to late month imo. That's what I think some on here are worried that even late month or so won't be good enough because by climatology standards, temps are moderating and there tends to be more cutters
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Climatology is not an issue til we get past the first week of March for most on the board
 
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