Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

[tonysc]

Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.

I can deal with a good sleet storm, music to the ears.

 

[Stormlover]

Climo says if you are south of I-20 you have 2 more weeks left barring a big storm like 1993 or 2009. I saw no significant snow after Feb 15 living south of I-20 between 1994 and 2017

That's not true at all.

 

[Parker]

18Z Nam is changing over rain to a light snow event Thursday evening/night over portions of Tennessee...band dies before going into WNC. Bottom image is the 12Z run same time frame to show change.
View attachment 3635 View attachment 3636

What a drastic change. I’ve been starting to lose hope and then the NAM goes nuts! Mountains would get hammered!

 

[accu35]

Climo can kiss my A$$, its gonna do whatever it wants to do south of i-20

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Climo can kiss my A$$, its gonna do whatever it wants to do south of i-20

What if it wants to rain?

 

[Stormlover]

6-10 backed off on the cold a little, but 8-14 has it

 

[SoutheastRidge]

That's not true at all.

How is it not true ? In 25 years i didnt see one meaningful winter event after Feb 15 living south of I-20. Im not saying other areas didnt get significant snow or ice in that time period but im just speaking about my observations. 1993 was the last time i saw anything significant after mid Feb.

 

[pcbjr]

6-10 backed off on the cold a little, but 8-14 has it

Actually, the grey (N) could go up or down; it's just a percentage probability spanning 7 days over 2 weeks out from now. For everyone's sake, here's hoping the real outcome has alligators in Big Cypress Swamp with ice on their tails sometime before the 14th ...
Bottom line - Don't take any forecast too seriously, or as gospel in any event; for example, I went to bed last night after the State of the Union and the NWS was calling for 36º; woke up and NWS was reporting 30º (29º in my back yard) - so in a span between 11:00 PM and 6:00 AM, they miserably missed a freeze and a heavy frost ...
Now, back to reading and studying ...

 

[Arcc]

How is it not true ? In 25 years i didnt see one meaningful winter event after Feb 15 living south of I-20. Im not saying other areas didnt get significant snow or ice in that time period but im just speaking about my observations. 1993 was the last time i saw anything significant after mid Feb.

Maybe, but in twenty five years I haven't seen more than four inches until something happened in December.

 

[Stormlover]

Still looking at a chance of hazardous cold Feb 8-14 on this

 

[ForsythSnow]

Here's a daily dose of negativity and cliff diving if you trust the EPS. Each run is getting worse and worse BTW.

 

[Storm5]

Here's a daily dose of negativity and cliff diving if you trust the EPS. Each run is getting worse and worse BTW.

Snow maps are the least important thing from an ensemble run . The oput is based off the changes at H5 which translates to how the members hand any system . They are fun to look at but don't mean Jack s***

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[Kylo]

Here's a daily dose of negativity and cliff diving if you trust the EPS. Each run is getting worse and worse BTW.

Startling to see how different the EPS is from the GEFS/GEPS. Posting all 3 5 day 2m temperature departures below, let's see who verifies come next week.

The GEPS and GEFS both look similar from a hemispheric pattern too.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Snow maps are the least important thing from an ensemble run . The oput is based off the changes at H5 which translates to how the members hand any system . They are fun to look at but don't mean Jack s***

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Should have posted this too. If someone says this is money they need to see a doctor LOL.

 

[Jon]

Here's a daily dose of negativity and cliff diving if you trust the EPS. Each run is getting worse and worse BTW.

Well, to ease some concerns, the skill of the Euro at 500mb anomalies (NH) at Day 10 is about .538 with the GFS at Day 10 at 0.473, you can imagine what the Day 15 skill is...dreadful. Probably 15% or less.

 

[Storm5]

Happy VDAY from the EPS!!!!!

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Happy VDAY from the EPS!!!!!

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Yes! Time to de-winterize the beach cottage!

 

[ForsythSnow]

Happy VDAY from the EPS!!!!!

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Something has to be wrong if we bake from the west to the east.

Well, to ease some concerns, the skill of the Euro at 500mb anomalies (NH) at Day 10 is about .538 with the GFS at Day 10 at 0.473, you can imagine what the Day 15 skill is...dreadful. Probably 15% or less.

Yeah, they aren't verifying high at the moment, so why trust them to some degree? I really am just clueless, but expect heat at this point. Just get me tons of rain here and I'm fine, but if I miss out on snow for rain I will be frustrated as one normally would be, unless someone is getting snow who hasn't. I think it's safe to throw out the Feb 5th system for heavy rain given the trends unless something changes due to the energy being so chaotic and all over the place.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That little fella up in Quebec looks concerned

 

[Rain Cold]

Startling to see how different the EPS is from the GEFS/GEPS. Posting all 3 5 day 2m temperature departures below, let's see who verifies come next week.

The GEPS and GEFS both look similar from a hemispheric pattern too.


View attachment 3638 View attachment 3639 View attachment 3640

None of those are really cold in the SE, so IMO, I don't care which verifies, really. I suppose the GEFS would be preferred, given the colder look to the north. None of them look snowy, though. Vortex looks too wound up. Very, very cold, but highly concentrated. Storm track near the area, but truthfully, unless we get a few 1040+ highs just to the north or northwest, storm track really isn't going to matter for most of the area. 1026 highs aint gonna cut it. MJO running out the clock in Phase 7 aint gonna cut it either. Block over the Arctic needs to build SE and dislodge the cold or we need a PV split or something. Fab Feb turning into Feb Fizzle. Sad!