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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Webberweather53 said:
MJO amplitude is determined by the sums of the squares of the amplitude on both the sides of the diagram which is all taken under the square root because in order to average standardized data like the PCs that make up the MJO you have to do this otherwise it's not the same. Averaging standardized numbers doesn't follow the same procedure as actual numbers
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Oh okay, I'm sorry excuse my ignorance.
 
Storm5 said:
Euro has 70s up and down the east coast in the extended. I hope it's right . My power bill was 323 last month. I had three separate events this winter with the big one in early December. I give it an A+ for sure

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I’ll give winter here a B-. Temp wise it was ok but to miss out on any real accumulating snow sucks.


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CAE was a B- for cold early on, this month will kill its grade.
For Wintry precip, it gets a D. I'd like to slap a F on it but we atleast saw flurries. The amount of jokes Mother Nature played on Central SC was a bit harsh. Missed in every single direction. Today 4 years ago we were in the middle of our last major winter storm to hit the Columbia, SC area. Richland county hasn't been under a Winter storm warning since.
 
Webberweather53 said:
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Intuitively this makes sense if we consider the variables at play which steer planetary-scale ridges and troughs. While background advection by the mean wind is wanting to push them to the east, planetary vorticity advection attributable to the difference in the coriolis parameter across them (from the crest of the ridge to its base) actually pushes it towards the west. For ridges that are of enough amplitude and scale, this planetary vorticity advection term actually wins out and the ridge moves westward against the mean flow, which in this case means our blocking high begins closer to Scandinavia and with time it progresses towards Greenland and eventually the Baffin Bay & northern Canada. All the while (in many cases) this ridge is being dampened (or weakened) by radiative & diabatic processes/fluxes as well as dispersion and ongoing alterations in the background flow (particularly ageostrophic geopotential flux/downstream development of Rossby Wave trains from pre-existing or newly forced ones). Retrograding, strong high-latitude blocks are more commonly observed over the North Pacific due to the zonal asymmetry of the jet but the North Atlantic is no stranger to them either. Thus, similar to how many -WPO blocks begin as -EPO ridges over Alaska & NW Canada, as Masiello/HM has correctly pointed out, most -NAO blocking highs start out as "east-based" or "SCAND" (Scandinavian) highs that retrograde west towards Greenland and northern Canada becoming "west-based -NAOs". Occasionally, we'll see very intense cyclonic wave breaking over and just off of eastern North America force a temporary blocking high that noses up from the North Atlantic and into Greenland but the pattern response is often different and these blocks tend to be more transient in nature unless the background forcing is favorable for their continued amplification.
 
I think that it's too early to give winter a conclusive grade, but I'm currently giving it a solid B for my location. I recorded several nights in the teens (I occasionally go a winter without one teen even occurring) and recorded snow for the first time since January 29, 2014. In terms of negative aspects regarding this winter, I doubt that I will ever get over being one county too far north to receive any type of snow while places 45 miles to my SE received around four inches. Additionally, I have failed (hope that this changes) to break my eight year streak of not receiving at least one inch of snow.
 
Growing up in central Mississippi where I still live, back in the sixties and seventies we almost always started mowing the grass by early March. Climate change or not nothing has really changed.
 
Millibar-Monster said:
Growing up in central Mississippi where I still live, back in the sixties and seventies we almost always started mowing the grass by early March. Climate change or not nothing has really changed.
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Lately no matter what Enso state it's been seemingly like winter has ended in February now, usually shortly after the halfway point but this time seems as if it will be earlier.
 
Not going to grade winter this early but it is hard to get an A here. All my winters are graded against the ones I grew up with in the late 70s through 85. I will say this year ranks toward the top since then. West Tn ended January -3.5 to -4. Heck we are -3 for February so far but That's about to take a hit
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Pfft you called it over weeks ago
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And then called it again not long ago.
SoutheastRidge replied to the thread Freezing Ferocious February.
Yes it the norm for the deep south to be done with winter by Feb 15. Every 10 or 20 years there will be a big snow after that.

Edit: I’m sorry ridge, I like you but your flipping more then a mobster who got caught selling dope.

Saturday at 6:16 PM
 
olhausen said:
And then called it again not long ago.
SoutheastRidge replied to the thread Freezing Ferocious February.
Yes it the norm for the deep south to be done with winter by Feb 15. Every 10 or 20 years there will be a big snow after that.

Edit: I’m sorry ridge, I like you but your flipping more then a mobster who got caught selling dope.

Saturday at 6:16 PM
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I stand by my statement that winter is over for the deep south. But for the majority of the south ( north of I-20) there is still a month to go.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I stand by my statement that winter is over for the deep south. But for the majority of the south ( north of I-20) there is still a month to go.
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My bad. It’s never over till around the 2nd week of March but it’s looking like slim pickings as of now if you’re south of Indianapolis. If someone does score it will be one of those late season sloppy snows that melts in a day.
 
Storm5 said:
Euro has 70s up and down the east coast in the extended. I hope it's right . My power bill was 323 last month. I had three separate events this winter with the big one in early December. I give it an A+ for sure

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A D- here, huge power bills, two months in a row with far above what it's every been before, and only 3/4 of an inch of snow. It did make the roads like a skating rink, but D- is it.
 
If DC doesnt get another snow this could go down as one of the worst winters ever there in terms of snowfall. I kinda feel bad for them :(
 
This winter has been so frustrating here plenty of cold but watching most of the real fun to be south and east of us... It started on December 8th and has been a storyline for 2 months. Yes we've had a few minor events here but nothing beyond a brief dusting on the cars. Itll be 3 years in March since more than a dusting and needless to say i'm giving this winter a poor grade. Cold air can only go so far without meaningful snow.

I still think we have a shot here to get something legit but time is running out
 
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Congrats South Alabama for a great December and January winter 2017/22018. Two winterstorms, what more could i ask for.
 
Brent said:
This winter has been so frustrating here plenty of cold but watching most of the real fun to be south and east of us... It started on December 8th and has been a storyline for 2 months. Yes we've had a few minor events here but nothing beyond a brief dusting on the cars. Itll be 3 years in March since more than a dusting and needless to say im giving this winter a poor grade. Cold air can only go so far without meaningful snow.
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You'll probably get 8 inches from a freak ULL in late March. LOL
 
cd2play said:
You'll probably get 8 inches from a freak ULL in late March. LOL
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It's happened before before I lived here lmao

First day of spring 2010, 6-8" in the northern suburbs of Dallas lol. That was 5 weeks after the biggest snowstorm ever in Dallas that nobody saw coming
 
Gut feeling: Does a March 1960 happen again in our lifetime? Or is it one of those "lottery ticket" dreams? I tend to believe the latter.
 
Brent said:
This winter has been so frustrating here plenty of cold but watching most of the real fun to be south and east of us... It started on December 8th and has been a storyline for 2 months. Yes we've had a few minor events here but nothing beyond a brief dusting on the cars. Itll be 3 years in March since more than a dusting and needless to say i'm giving this winter a poor grade. Cold air can only go so far without meaningful snow.

I still think we have a shot here to get something legit but time is running out
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You must not be living right. #punishment
 
cd2play said:
Gut feeling: Does a March 1960 happen again in our lifetime? Or is it one of those "lottery ticket" dreams? I tend to believe the latter.
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the thing about March 60 is there was also a pretty damn cold/snowy Feb 60 as well... truly a lottery ticket type pattern.. I suppose some warmer version of it is possible now. The truly remarkable thing about March 60 was the steady nature of the cold.. try to find ANY month much less March where CHA had as many 45 degree highs or less in a row... almost 3 weeks. January '77 maybe.
 
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olhausen said:
My bad. It’s never over till around the 2nd week of March but it’s looking like slim pickings as of now if you’re south of Indianapolis. If someone does score it will be one of those late season sloppy snows that melts in a day.
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I am north of I-20 by ten miles or so. Our winter is done for, I'm okay with that, and because people post here from up north doesn't mean winter isn't any less "done" in the southeast. We may get lucky, but whatever. I had a few flakes nothing like people on the other side of Atlanta saw though. I'm ready to move on to spring!
 
No big surprise that 2017/2018 is an A+ for me, the best winter since 2013/2014, and personally the best winter arguably since 2010/2011 when it comes to snowfall.
 
FFC isn't doing a very good job with temperatures tonight at all. Forecast low for tonight is 50. Considering it never got above 50.3 here this afternoon and it is currently down to 43.9, I'd say that low tonight is way off lol. It's been slowly dropping all evening.
 
also, on the topic of March 1960, check out this mega neg NAO baby:
nao.timeseries.gif
 
still predicting some dippage so all hope is not lost, I suppose... figure early March to be at least in a 'colder' pattern.
nao.sprd2.gif
 
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