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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GeorgiaGirl said:
Ya but for a while he was thinking that it was possible that he would be wrong...but we all got duped by what the teleconnections were looking like, just like "Voldemort" from the old days. Everyone from the intellectuals to the hobbyists. There was only one guy that ended up being right in the shorter term, and that was Shawn. Everyone else had hope because of what the teleconnections were looking like temporarily.

Don't feel like digging it up but he had said that the strong MJO event in phase 7 makes him think that we might have already flipped to a warm-ENSO background.
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The stalling of the MJO in phase 7 is likely in one fact attributable to the current NINA background coupled w/ a cool Atlantic MDR which halts further easterly progression into the Western Hemisphere and the current sudden stratospheric warming event/PV split could be perturbing the upper equatorial troposphere and lower stratosphere such that convection is favored over the warm pool yet again in spite of recent MJO passage which also may hinder progression of the MJO into the traditionally less convectively active W Hem (phases 8-1) by inducing large-scale mid-level descent. The evolution of tropical convection and the atmospheric response to this convection the next several will be critical for the development of a potential El Nino this upcoming fall and winter, if the MJO propagates thru the Indian Ocean in the COD w/ little amplitude as advertised by the ECMWF it will do little if anything to stifle/dampen the massive downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave that's building in the Western Pacific. The suppression of the thermocline all the way down to over 300m well west of the International Dateline is extremely impressive and is about 100m deeper than the previous moderate oceanic KW that roamed across the CP in late December and January. Even if this KW even just maintains its intensity these anomalies will increase a lot as it comes east because the thermocline is much shallower to the east. Thus, it will seem like the KW is "intensifying" as it comes east as the anomalies increase but the reality is it's just not damping as many often do.
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Webberweather53 said:
The stalling of the MJO in phase 7 is likely in one fact attributable to the current NINA background coupled w/ a cool Atlantic MDR which halts further easterly progression into the Western Hemisphere and the current sudden stratospheric warming event/PV split could be perturbing the upper equatorial troposphere and lower stratosphere such that convection is favored over the warm pool yet again in spite of recent MJO passage which also may hinder progression of the MJO into the traditionally less convectively active W Hem (phases 8-1) by inducing large-scale mid-level descent. The evolution of tropical convection and the atmospheric response to this convection the next several will be critical for the development of a potential El Nino this upcoming fall and winter, if the MJO propagates thru the Indian Ocean in the COD w/ little amplitude as advertised by the ECMWF it will do little if anything to stifle/dampen the massive downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave that's building in the Western Pacific. The suppression of the thermocline all the way down to over 300m well west of the International Dateline is extremely impressive and is about 100m deeper than the previous moderate oceanic KW that roamed across the CP in late December and January. Even if this KW even just maintains its intensity these anomalies will increase a lot as it comes east because the thermocline is much shallower to the east. Thus, it will seem like the KW is "intensifying" as it comes east as the anomalies increase but the reality is it's just not damping as many often do.
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Thanks for your honest analysis Webb. Realistic and straight forward as always, even if it's not what some, including myself, want to hear. We'll get over it if it doesn't work out
 
Everyone here is talking warm weather meanwhile Memphis says significant arctic intrusion possible late next week
 
BPATL said:
LOL,,,I will believe it when we see it...
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Not going to affect many on here at this point but models are trending atm to a battle ground setting up next weekend over Tennessee. The cold air is trending a little further south for a brief period. We have been very close with the two systems this week over this way. We got a solid half inch of snow Sunday on the back end of that system and there is a small band of snow about to move in as I type.
 
Happy hour special! Take it while you can!
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66CEFB1E-B90F-4F7C-B99D-3AB04C4AB177.png DT! The Man! Calling out Bustardi! LMAO!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol yep. It's one run and it's happy hour, and if there is blue in states in the SE then it's a special. Even if that special is complete garbage.
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Euro has it as well fwiw . But cold chasing moisture does not excite me like it did back in the day .

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Both of the big models are getting drier for NC and SC outside of the mountains. This area and parts of GA will almost certainly hang on to the drought and see it worsen again over the next few weeks. It would not surprise me at all if everyone east of I-85 in the Carolinas get less than .50 total in rain over the next 2 weeks. So much for the big wet spell here.
 
This is classic. As usual, the stereotypical NINA storm track comes to life late in the winter. I feel so stupid for even considering the cool/Fab February as a legitimate option, I knew sooner or later this would show up and we got lucky this year it didn't happen in January.
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Webberweather53 said:
This is classic. As usual, the stereotypical NINA storm track comes to life late in the winter. I feel so stupid for even considering the cool/Fab February as a legitimate option, I knew sooner or later this would show up and we got lucky this year it didn't happen in January.
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Yep you were right 3 months ago ....

Currently 68 with A.C. blasting

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whatalife said:
Yep! You can turnout the lights on the SE. It was just a matter of time before this pattern showed up.


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Agreed. This large-scale pattern looks primed for severe weather in Dixie Alley/lower TN Valley in general, we obviously need the right triggers and individual systems to take advantage of this but we have the right kind of pattern to produce big early season tornado outbreaks.
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Webberweather53 said:
Agreed. This large-scale pattern looks primed for severe weather in Dixie Alley/lower TN Valley in general, we obviously need the right triggers and individual systems to take advantage of this but we have the right kind of pattern to produce big early season tornado outbreaks.
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No thank you ... :(
 
JHS said:
Both of the big models are getting drier for NC and SC outside of the mountains. This area and parts of GA will almost certainly hang on to the drought and see it worsen again over the next few weeks. It would not surprise me at all if everyone east of I-85 in the Carolinas get less than .50 total in rain over the next 2 weeks. So much for the big wet spell here.
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Yeah, my ground is cracking from the 9” of rain I’ve had the last 3 weeks! Please pray for rain! :weenie:
 
6FC81003-BE6B-4A4D-8A2F-3778A212DDE8.png Prepare for cool start to summer and the drought to end soon in TX! He also nailed Fab Feb in October o_O
 
This pitiful excuse for a La Niña is able to exert a typical La Niña late winter pattern. What a crock.

DT sux but he’s pretty funny.
 
Winter is done.as usual we have one good storm here, and that is it.
 
For Raleigh to finish below normal for winter, December through February, we have to average 8.5F above normal or less. The next 5 days look to average atleast +12 to +14F. Verbatim the EPS would put Raleigh beyond 8.5F above normal the next 15 days so that would put the winter itself above normal. Gives us something to track.
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 3983 Prepare for cool start to summer and the drought to end soon in TX! He also nailed Fab Feb in October o_O
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Does he not know that analogs aren't exact pattern that repeat exactly the same, but are close instances of past weather to analyze possible future events? A lot has changed since October also, which means they are a lot less reliable.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Does he not know that analogs aren't exact pattern that repeat exactly the same, but are close instances of past weather to analyze possible future events? A lot has changed since October also, which means they are a lot less reliable.
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I don't think he also realizes that we're about to undergo a massive change in terms of ENSO the next 2-3 months, almost certainly headed towards neutral or perhaps even El Nino before or by the time summer kicks in which leads to wetter than normal conditions over Texas and summers (even early on) aren't that hot, granted they have a lot of work to do just to get to par for the course but it's possible.
 
I do think the upper south (really mainly North TN) could possibly see a round of snow next weekend, but south of there, that possibility is very shaky and even there...it's like maybe they'll see a coat of snow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Agreed. This large-scale pattern looks primed for severe weather in Dixie Alley/lower TN Valley in general, we obviously need the right triggers and individual systems to take advantage of this but we have the right kind of pattern to produce big early season tornado outbreaks.
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So basically you were right all along from December. If even a PV split can't get cold to the South, what can? Pretty sad that it's so hard to get cold down here if you ask me. A PV split of that magnitude and a possible -nao and we still can't get cold, etc? That's pretty pathetic man. What do you think?
 
Clayton said:
So basically you were right all along from December. If even a PV split can't get cold to the South, what can? Pretty sad that it's so hard to get cold down here if you ask me. A PV split of that magnitude and a possible -nao and we still can't get cold, etc? That's pretty pathetic man. What do you think?
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You must have missed the January cold......

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