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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

already slight risk of hazardous cold Feb 7-14
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Storm5 said:
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The most likely verification is going to be between the warm biased EPS (a longterm bias..nothing new) and the cold biased GEFS (again a longterm bias/nothing new with much of this cold bias likely due to being too cold over snowcover). So, I say go in between but closer to the GEFS. By the way, the CMC ensemble mean (GEPS) is even warmer over the SE US in the 6-15 day period with warmer than normal! But the GEPS
also has a warm bias which I think it even stronger than that of the EPS.

In summary for the SE US at two meters, the GEFS is near normal in the 6-10 and a little colder than normal in the 11-15, the EPS is near normal in the 6-15, and the GEPS is warmer than normal in the 6-15. I say go between the near to colder than normal GEFS and the near normal EPS but closer to the GEFS. So, I'm expecting the 6-15 to average at least a little colder than normal as of now.
 
GaWx said:
The most likely verification is going to be between the warm biased EPS (a longterm bias..nothing new) and the cold biased GEFS (again a longterm bias/nothing new with much of this cold bias likely due to being too cold over snowcover). So, I say go in between but closer to the GEFS. By the way, the CMC ensemble mean (GEPS) is even warmer over the SE US in the 6-15 day period with warmer than normal! But the GEPS
also has a warm bias which I think it even stronger than that of the EPS.

In summary for the SE US at two meters, the GEFS is near normal in the 6-10 and a little colder than normal in the 11-15, the EPS is near normal in the 6-15, and the GEPS is warmer than normal in the 6-15. I say go between the near to colder than normal GEFS and the near normal EPS but closer to the GEFS. So, I'm expecting the 6-15 to average at least a little colder than normal as of now.
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Larry,
Someone's gonna do well. Many, perhaps. I have $5.00 on who isn't ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Someone's gonna do well. I have $5.00 on who isn't ... o_O
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If you're talking about Gainseville, FL, wintry precip, we both know you could say that 95+++% of the time and be right. But as usual, I'm not specifically addressing wintry precip. since there's more to winter than precip. (I know you agree). Also, you never know when the magic will happen, especially with what some of the model runs have been showing. I wouldn't completely rule it out just yet even with it being extremely unlikely.
 
GFS showing a lot of threats in the long range, like between next Wednesday and the 15th. Looks like a prime time for strong storm signals.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Been to several 500's and I love your area for weather in mid-February. It can still feel chilly at night but the days are awesome.
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Greg,
I'll take it a big step further and say that you could easily freeze your as* off in the radiational cooling capital of FL at night in mid Feb. I actually lived there through most of one winter. It nowhere even resembles the bulk of FL on those nights! There were many very comfy winter days for walking...just fabulous walking country in winter. Actually, my favorite time to walk was early evening on a clear, cool, dry day with light winds as the temp. started to rapidly fall.
 
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GaWx said:
If you're talking about Gainseville, FL, wintry precip, we both know you could say that 95+++% of the time and be right. But as usual, I'm not specifically addressing wintry precip. since there's more to winter than precip. (I know you agree). Also, you never know when the magic will happen, especially with what some of the model runs have been showing. I wouldn't completely rule it out just yet even with it being extremely unlikely.
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Hey!
Wasn't talking about wintry precip IMBY; just that the line of demarcation for anything chilly (which you have to admit constitutes most of the fun for me, given location) continuously seems to be setting up just a tad too uncomfortably far north to ignore (not one model or one run, but all models for a few days now, BTW).
95+++%? Try 98+% ... LOL
Suffice it to say, I'm a realist, and the biggest cheerleader here for my brothers and sisters north and west of me ... :cool:
So, here's hoping for most, if not all ... but realistically, mostly for most ... ;)
Best!
Phil
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Can someone please put the ensemble memeber snow total maps on here? I don't think weathermodels.com has them
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The gefs is posted. The eps hasn't been . I'll post it when I get home . I can tell you it looks absolutely nothing like the gefs but that's due to the massive 500mb differences between the two .

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
The key for interior SC, again, on these runs to be showing the higher means through middle February is a low in the Gulf and a High in the Northeast. This is exactly what you should pay attention to if you're looking for snow around the area. Not the nickle and dime events behind and along cold fronts.
 
Storm5 said:
I didn't mean I don't think it's possible. I should have said I dont care if a locked pattern sets up. It's February the backend of winter is here . Give me cold shots and an active southern stream and I'll be happy. If a colder pattern locks in I guess that would just be a bonus

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I think the more relaxed cold shots in Feb. as opposed to what we sometimes see in Jan, is the main reason I can remember bigger and better snowstorms in Feb. than in Jan.
 
Shawn said:
The key for interior SC, again, on these runs to be showing the higher means through middle February is a low in the Gulf and a High in the Northeast. This is exactly what you should pay attention to if you're looking for snow around the area. Not the nickle and dime events behind and along cold fronts.
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Agreed, especially with the low suppressed to crossing central FL (clearly a better chance than N FL though N FL can still produce if air cold enough). When the talk is about suppression, I'd be perking up if I were in your area. Of course, I like the very rare super suppression like what we had 1/3/18.
 
Shawn said:
The key for interior SC, again, on these runs to be showing the higher means through middle February is a low in the Gulf and a High in the Northeast. This is exactly what you should pay attention to if you're looking for snow around the area. Not the nickle and dime events behind and along cold fronts.
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Yeh we aren't going to get snow with the cold chasing moisture crap that works for everyone West of the mountains.
 
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Storm5 said:
The gefs is posted. The eps hasn't been . I'll post it when I get home . I can tell you it looks absolutely nothing like the gefs but that's due to the massive 500mb differences between the two .

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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I mean like these things. That was from earlier today
 
GaWx said:
Agreed, especially with the low suppressed to crossing central FL (clearly a better chance than N FL though N FL can still produce if air cold enough). When the talk is about suppression, I'd be perking up if I were in your area. Of course, I like the very rare super suppression like what we had 1/3/18.
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I can understand that, because usually when we're getting a big snowstorm here in the Upstate, your area is not getting snow. At best probably a sloppy mess or just plain rain.
 
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