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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

344AAC4B-9EEE-45C1-B0DC-AB5CA20DA5F2.jpeg Looking good for the Mid Atlantic! Good for them, looks like a SE ridge torchfest!
 
Kylo said:
The one consistent of this winter is the persistent upward trend of the NAO.

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I don't care so much about the NAO since it almost never depends on us getting a storm. It's only good for locking cold after a storm I think. The PNA and AO are much more worth focusing on, and the AO looks to go deeply negative, and even with correction could get it down low enough for impacts. Have to get the PNA up though, it's negative and then slightly positive to neutral.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Look at it tanking around the 16th! It’s happening, last week of Feb for glory!
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:) I wish. We are on the 19th consecutive winter month (D-M) of a +NAO. Highly doubt any -NAO occurring the next few weeks.

The MJO model runs today are pathetic. Nina climo usually rules in February, which is what we are seeing. Favorable MJO, -SOI and major SSW doesn’t appear it will change that. Most on this site got to see snow so that always makes for a solid winter. Ready for severe season.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't care so much about the NAO since it almost never depends on us getting a storm. It's only good for locking cold after a storm I think. The PNA and AO are much more worth focusing on, and the AO looks to go deeply negative, and even with correction could get it down low enough for impacts. Have to get the PNA up though, it's negative and then slightly positive to neutral.
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Maybe for your area it’s not preferable. For Raleigh would prefer a -NAO, our best winters our -NAO winters but pacific side can deliver too. It’s been so long since a -NAO winter (2010 and 2011) that people forget. We need help from either the pacific with PNA/-EPO combo or Atlantic blocking with NAO. We don’t appear to be getting either.
 
A67CE0F7-8A1E-4501-A54B-05453291ABFE.png That’s basically admitting he was wrong! Takes a big man to admit defeat!
 
Storm5 said:
Can't complain, my winter snow total so far is greater than the total in Washington DC.

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And State College PA!! Lol!
JB was in the 6-12” snow area the other day, saw him complaining about 2-3” of slop! How you like that warm nose JB?:p
 
Each of the 3 upcoming 5 day periods of the next 15 days is warmer than normal at 2 meters in the SE on all of the latest runs of the GFS, Euro, and CMC suites. That is despite cooler trends in the Midwest/N Rockies, especially the EPS run that I noted earlier. If anything, the most recent 6-15 day trends have been warmer in the SE thanks to a stronger SE ridge. We'll see whether or not this verifies (don't bet the farm on it just yet), but the forecasted pattern of the warmest part of the country being in the SE does fit Feb La Niña long term averages well. It wouldn't be what I'd want. I don't want early bugs and pollen. So, hopefully this will change, especiallly in the 11-15. No offense to bugs, of course!
 
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GaWx said:
Each of the 3 upcoming 5 day periods of the next 15 days is warmer than normal at 2 meters in the SE on all of the latest runs of the GFS, Euro, and CMC suites. That is despite cooler trends in the Midwest/N Rockies, especially the EPS run that I noted earlier. If anything, the most recent 6-15 day trends have been warmer in the SE thanks to a stronger SE ridge. We'll see whether or not this verifies (don't bet the farm on it just yet), but the forecasted pattern of the warmest part of the country being in the SE does fit Feb La Niña long term averages well. It wouldn't be what I'd want. I don't want early bugs and pollen.
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Remember when people were saying “ don’t worry about the SE ridge” “ it’s overdone “ “ didn’t happen in January, won’t happen now!” Etc, February, you rock! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
Remember when people were saying “ don’t worry about the SE ridge” “ it’s overdone “ “ didn’t happen in January, won’t happen now!” Etc, February, you rock! :(
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Here's some irony. Based on these runs, the poster "SoutheastRidge" up in Indiana is in the best location over the next 15 days of all active members thanks to none other than the southeast ridge and he's sick of the cold!
 
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ForsythSnow said:
I don't care so much about the NAO since it almost never depends on us getting a storm. It's only good for locking cold after a storm I think. The PNA and AO are much more worth focusing on, and the AO looks to go deeply negative, and even with correction could get it down low enough for impacts. Have to get the PNA up though, it's negative and then slightly positive to neutral.
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Kylo said:
Maybe for your area it’s not preferable. For Raleigh would prefer a -NAO, our best winters our -NAO winters but pacific side can deliver too. It’s been so long since a -NAO winter (2010 and 2011) that people forget. We need help from either the pacific with PNA/-EPO combo or Atlantic blocking with NAO. We don’t appear to be getting either.
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The magic of the -NAO in the SE is for coastal storms (Miller A type). The -NAO really slows down the flow and allows storms to hang around longer and get cranking as it moves slowly up the coast or out to sea. We can all get good storms without it, but the biggest coastal storms with a long duration probably featured -NAO or some other feature like a 50-50 low to slow down the flow.
 
GaWx said:
Here's some irony. Based on these runs, the poster "SoutheastRidge" up in Indiana is in the best location over the next 15 days of all active members thanks to none other than the southeast ridge and he's sick of the cold!
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Thats not what I wanted to hear. I would gladly give all of the cold up here to the south.
 
Storm5 said:
Can't complain, my winter snow total so far is greater than the total in Washington DC.

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I agree. It’s all about beating the mid Atlantic in my book. I still think we get another crack around March 1st.


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I guess it could be worse.

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GaWx said:
Here's some irony. Based on these runs, the poster "SoutheastRidge" up in Indiana is in the best location over the next 15 days of all active members thanks to none other than the southeast ridge and he's sick of the cold!
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It's just surprising that a place like Richmond, IN with basically the same Latitude as Madrid, Spain could get all that snow ;)
 
Excited about this rain to knock this drought out, no trolling, we really need the rain, it seems like this drought just crept up on us.
 
metwannabe said:
It's just surprising that a place like Richmond, IN with basically the same Latitude as Madrid, Spain could get all that snow ;)
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IMO it gets way too cold here given the latitude. 40N is really not that far north when you think about it. Im willing to bet over 90% of the world at the same latitude have a warmer climate.
 
Kylo said:
I guess it could be worse.

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The fact that the weather brains of the world keep kicking the can and we keep seeing the models trend warmer as Larry pointed out. I'm finding it hard to get excited about any potential late winter cold. I've actually been enjoying the warmer temps and getting outside more

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Storm5 said:
The fact that the weather brains of the world keep kicking the can and we keep seeing the models trend warmer as Larry pointed out. I'm finding it hard to get excited about any potential late winter cold. I've actually been enjoying the warmer temps and getting outside more
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Yeah, the 12Z GFS/CMC suites keep the SE ridge strong through day 15. Let's see if the Euro suite agrees.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, the 12Z GFS/CMC suites keep the SE ridge strong through day 15. Let's see if the Euro suite agrees.
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Yeah, with a high of 83º and a low of 57º down here over the entire 12Z GFS run, for February, someone has to think somethin' ain't right in the alignment of the moon and stars ... :confused:
 
Storm5 said:
The fact that the weather brains of the world keep kicking the can and we keep seeing the models trend warmer as Larry pointed out. I'm finding it hard to get excited about any potential late winter cold. I've actually been enjoying the warmer temps and getting outside more

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Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles. Beating a dead horse here but the GFS looks nothing like its ensemble suite in terms of longer term trends. The GEFS isn't exactly getting warmer as verification nears on the referenced time stamp (168 HR) for the GFS
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I will say this again... The potential going into the 3rd/4th week of this month is impressive in my opinion. Yes it will be somewhat short lived and not a locked in Cold Pattern but whoever is in that battle zone between both air masses is going to get shocked. Right now it looks as if Arkansas, Northern Miss, and Tennessee in the South could be the Winner, with extreme North Alabama very close to a Wintry scenario. With that said the SER will be stout for the rest of the Southeast and could provide an early Severe potential, with Dixie Alley possibly in it too. Still many questions than answers.
 
Someone on here brought up the similarities of this SSW and the one from 1985. Below is today’s EPS compared to the pattern of 1985 shortly after the split and then what it evolved too a week or so later.

2705E63E-2005-412C-B149-7CE6B4EF2359.png 4F04C166-1667-4575-A06C-AF746E77FFFF.gif B364EECE-53C8-4B45-8144-9DB36E54798E.gif
 
I'm starting to wonder if Atlanta has seen it's last freeze of the season. No freezes forecast through at least Feb 22. I know one year the last freeze was in early February so I guess it's possible.
 
Kylo said:
Someone on here brought up the similarities of this SSW and the one from 1985. Below is today’s EPS compared to the pattern of 1985 shortly after the split and then what it evolved too a week or so later.

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Now, does January vs. February make a difference?
Good info, in any event!
BTW - after that blast in 1985, it warmed up and pretty well stayed ...
 
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