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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

It's gonna be fun watching the gfs and gefs cave towards the Euro and a much warmer period late next weekend into the next week OR the euro and eps bust towards a colder solution. Clearly one will bust

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As Shane points out, the gfs is probably rushing the pattern change which we see the models do every year

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Well, if it is rushing it, then probably we will keep chasing it until the end of Feburnuary, because that's what it could end up being. We could also be unlucky and see last year's chasing nothing happen again and us torch here on out not to see a flake until next winter.

On the other hand, the EPS could bust as you mentioned horribly, and we see some other colder solution. Seeing things haven't done well with the models recently, I'm just going to sit back and see where we go.
 
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It's gonna be fun watching the gfs and gefs cave towards the Euro and a much warmer period late next weekend into the next week OR the euro and eps bust towards a colder solution. Clearly one will bust

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Or maybe they both moderate and meet somewhere in the middle over time. Any chance that they are all off their rockers right now?
 
EPS has trended to a -AO into February and a turn to a +PNA around February 6-8. GEFS has had both of those for a couple of days.
 
EPS is a conus blowtorch day 10. GEFS was a lot colder, not sure which one to believe.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

Well if you believe the EPS you also have to believe they'll be one elongated subtropical ridge from the eastern North Pacific to Europe. That's not going to happen
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Well which ever turns out to be the
Well, if it is rushing it, then probably we will keep chasing it until the end of Feburnuary, because that's what it could end up being. We could also be unlucky and see last year's chasing nothing happen again and us torch here on out not to see a flake until next winter.

On the other hand, the EPS could bust as you mentioned horribly, and we see some other colder solution. Seeing things haven't done well with the models recently, I'm just going to sit back and see where we go.
Well which ever is the case, it certainly is frustrating. Wish we just had a clear solution already and I wish the solution was cold and stormy but knowing mother nature we'll probably get screwed somehow.
 
The EPS continues to trend in the right direction inside day 10, these big troughs over the Rockies aren't verifying because of its issues w/ gravity wave drag and orographic forcing over the Rockies during fast flow regimes
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EPS has trended to a -AO into February and a turn to a +PNA around February 6-8. GEFS has had both of those for a couple of days.

Yep, that's because the EPS is having trouble w/ this MJO pulse fixing to enter the western Pacific. The GEFS has consistently shown a stronger pulse here while the Euro tried to drop it into the COD just several days ago. A stronger MJO event in the Western Pacific strengthens the downstream RWT over the mid-latitudes and the wave 1 forcing onto the polar vortex, which weakens it leading to a -AO tendency and it favors at least some periodic anticyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic (-NAO or a weaker +NAO).
 
Well if you believe the EPS you also have to believe they'll be one elongated subtropical ridge from the eastern North Pacific to Europe. That's not going to happen
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I hope you're right, Eric. But the weather and mother nature can do strange, crazy, unprecedented things beyond what we think and weather mets worldwide are constantly humbled by this fact I assume. How can u be 100% sure that WON'T happen? No offense intended.
 
I hope you're right, Eric. But the weather and mother nature can do strange, crazy, unprecedented things beyond what we think and weather mets worldwide are constantly humbled by this fact I assume. How can u be 100% sure that WON'T happen? No offense intended.

It likely won't happen because that's just common sense and the Rossby radius of deformation associated w/ these waves isn't large enough to have one singular ridge from eastern North Pacific, across the entirety of North America and the North Atlantic, and western Europe for very long, it's an unstable configuration. Thus, even if it miraculously occurs, we would see this for a few days at most. Additionally even if the flow is fast and nearly geostrophic, the coriolis force will eventually deflect parcels embedded within the jet and thus round out a ridge/trough axis after a particular period of time. The EPS hasn't exactly been all that reliable after day 5-6 of late, the ridge over the eastern US has been eroding as we neared verification for reasons I've delved into earlier in this thread
 
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It likely won't happen because that's just common sense and the Rossby radius of deformation associated w/ these waves isn't large enough to have one singular ridge from eastern North Pacific, across the entirety of North America and the North Atlantic, and western Europe for very long, it's an unstable configuration. Thus, even if it miraculously occurs, we would see this for a few days at most. Additionally even if the flow is fast and nearly geostrophic, the coriolis force will eventually deflect parcels embedded within the jet and thus round out a ridge/trough axis after a particular period of time. The EPS hasn't exactly been all that reliable after day 5-6 of late, the ridge over the eastern US has been eroding as we neared verification
Well I don't have the common sense part because I'm not familiar with the subtropical jet or any jet all that much. So I just wanted to ask even if it was a dumb question. I might have to even Google some of the terms you used here.
 
Larry, see my post below. It all depends on your history. I've live in houses with crawl spaces, one with copper, one with pvc and they froze on occasion if I was dripping the water. As soon as I went to a pencil stream inside and out no more problem. I figure overkill is better than sorry. But if you are brick, well insulated, and run the faucet closest to the junction with the outside faucet, and it's wrapped, you can skate....until it freezes, lol. Another thing to do is buy your plumbing supplies ahead of time, like in the summer, lol, because when your pipes freeze, and lot of other ones did too, and they beat you to home depot, lol. I have several cans of glue, cleaner, and lots of hot and cold pipe on hand in case I mess up. That Feb a few years back where it stayed below freezing for days, I waited until about four that first cold day to run the water, and it was already too late. Now I start running it hours before it hits freezing, because I was under the house in the dark fixing them when they broke after it went above freezing, and I was cussing, and fuming, and made myself a promise, "Tony, you damn idiot, run the damn water, if froze once, it will do it again", lol.

Tony,
Thanks for the advice. My house is brick and directly on a slab/no crawlspace.
 
The EPS's MJO forecasts have been nothing short of embarrassing the last week or so, the MJO is already about as strong or stronger than the most amplified Euro monthly members from 2 days ago. Smh.
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That's at about a 3.0 for the highest while in phase 7 on this latest EPS vs its prediction of 2.5 in phase 7 three days ago. OTOH, the GEFS had 4.2 for the strongest in phase 7 three days ago. That could still end up verifying way too strong. It came down to 4.0 in yesterday's run. I still haven't seen today's run. It looks like we may be headed toward verification near the middle, which would be in the 3.3-3.4 area. In the vast majority of cases, the EPS wins even as you've noted. But maybe not this time as you predicted due to how it has done in the past with similar situations.
 
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Just got on internet and found out next weekends snow threat is in a lot of trouble. It's in jeopardy of getting fired. :(
It almost sucked me in. A few more good runs and it would of got me. That said I had to double check when I barely saw any snow since I was getting use to the fantasy paste jobs the models were throwing out the last 3 days.
 
That's at about a 3.0 for the highest while in phase 7 on this latest EPS vs its prediction of 2.5 in phase 7 three days ago. OTOH, the GEFS had 4.2 for the strongest in phase 7 three days ago. That could still end up verifying way too strong. It came down to 4.0 in yesterday's run. I still haven't seen today's run. It looks like we may be headed toward verification near the middle, which would be in the 3.3-3.4 area. In the vast majority of cases, the EPS wins even as you've noted. But maybe not this time.

The GFS forecast from a few days ago was actually very good in comparison to the European, but it has actually increased the amplitude of its MJO forecast in phase 6, there was little change in peak amplitude. A compromise solution will likely happen to an extent but it's going to be heavily weighted in favor of the GFS and the Euro will continue to get its butt kicked like it has been for the past week or so
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:confused::cool:
It's gonna be fun watching the gfs and gefs cave towards the Euro and a much warmer period late next weekend into the next week OR the euro and eps bust towards a colder solution. Clearly one will bust

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I hope warm wins out! So tired of chasing cold and miracle pattern changes! Plus my power bill will be :cool:
 
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