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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Millibar-Monster said:
Tom Skilling said on his Chicago weather broadcast tonight that it would be cold for the next week and half and be much warmer from mid February into March. If it's warmer up there it's probably not real cold down south.
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good sign... if you want warm weather... tom is one of the best if not the best out there... had enough cold
 
cd2play said:
I'm glad I'm not the only one who is getting annoyed by his "I can't wait until severe weather season gets ramped up", etc.
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As someone else said green onions or whatever the hell they are come during cold weather season. I know because I have a ton in my yard even though I cut the grass for the last time in late November. My dogs try and eat them and it’s not good for them from what I hear. I’ll be the first to admit when a true torch is among us but this ain’t it. We didn’t even get above freezing today and the next week looks anything but spring time.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm going to guess that whatever happens in February, at least a few people aren't going to like it. Even if it's a cold February.
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As long as the above average temps hold off till spring I’ll be good. Warm weather folks get at least 7 months a year of 60s or higher temps so let me have my 3 months of 40s highs and 20s lows.
 
tennessee storm said:
last time i checked this is a WEATHER forum... wanted to make sure i was in the proper place... sorry i take it to banter next time bosses... lol
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Nobody has a problem with you saying you like severe weather. It’s the fact that you’ve been saying the models show a severe look or that severe and warmth is just around the corner since November. As my earlier post stated we don’t get much time for cold so when the warm weather people are saying bring on the warmth all winter it can get irritating sometimes. Back to weather as I’ve gone off topic in the wrong thread to much tonight.
 
olhausen said:
As long as the above average temps hold off till spring I’ll be good. Warm weather folks get at least 7 months a year of 60s or higher temps so let me have my 3 months of 40s highs and 20s lows.
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At this point I would love highs in the 40s. Tired of highs around 20 and lows 10 and below. Im not a fan of extreme cold or extreme heat. I wish the temp never got below 25 or above 85.
 
pcbjr said:
Snow, slowly wedging from Havana to Miami to Sarasota to Tampa to Valdosta, turning to zr by Macon (KATL gets a cold rain, again) and into a warm rain before Charlotte ... :confused:
Damn ... I need to get back to sleep ... :oops:
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Those meds must be really strong.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It depends on the position, amplitude, and persistence of the tropospheric wave pattern, but if successful in splitting the polar vortex, this could lead to a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE) wherein the warming is so intense over the polar cap that the westerly winds associated w/ the polar night jet encapsulating the polar vortex are slowed to at least 0 or reverse entirely. Polar vortex split events usually favor immediate cold in Europe thanks to the Scandinavian blocking high, cold (if any) is often delayed for North America because we have to wait for the anomalies generated near the stratopause by these wave fluxes to downwell into the troposphere and hope that most of it doesn't simply radiate out into space. It often takes a few weeks or so for said anomalies to begin impacting the troposphere, thus we wouldn't really see any sensible effect from this PV splitting event until late February or March at the earliest, if we do at all. There are many cases in La Ninas where we actually turn much warmer following a SSWE.
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That pretty much backs up the rest I've heard and the reason I've never paid attention to it, that a SSWE and/or PV split is pretty much overrated hoopla for NA.

Thanks for the explanation.
 
Looks like a big ole-fashioned winter rainstorm for Tennessee.. can't say we don't need it. Maybe mid-Feb on will have some surprises.
gfs_apcpn_us_18.png
 
Maybe this is the run we don't see a cutoff low and have a pattern change after a runner+a s/w sneak under it.
 
I just read the first page of this thread.. lol Well, it started out optimistic at least. Feb '15 was rather warmish for the first 10 days. so there's that. Also, if anyone's still hoping for a Feb/March 1960 repeat, early Feb '60 had several warm spells. We ain't doing another Feb '58... that whole month was cold.
 
CHA: from a high of 70 to almost 9 inches on the ground. and that was only the beginning.

1960-02-09 64 35 49.5 6.5 15 0 T 0.0 0
1960-02-10 70 48 59.0 15.8 6 0 0.11 0.0 0
1960-02-11 48 30 39.0 -4.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 0
1960-02-12 45 28 36.5 -7.2 28 0 T T 0
1960-02-13 32 25 28.5 -15.4 36 0 0.92 8.7 5
 
So I'm a little confused both the EPS and GEFS show the NAO trending toward negative in mid-Feb, but the Euro & GFS operationals show it going wildly positive.. I genuinely don't get it:
gfs_nao_forecast.png
ecmwf_eps_nao_2018020212.png
 
Euro looks mighty interesting here next weekend o_O

Not so interesting for most of yall to the east, congrats Chicago
 
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whamby said:
So I'm a little confused both the EPS and GEFS show the NAO trending toward negative in mid-Feb, but the Euro & GFS operationals show it going wildly positive.. I genuinely don't get it:
gfs_nao_forecast.png
ecmwf_eps_nao_2018020212.png
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This is showing the same thing. Top imagine has a larger time frame on the X axis which makes it “taller”. Peak at 2/11 and trending downward on both the Op GFS and EPS here


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SD said:
Goodbye strat pv.
173d52c84036c3d0c9d7122afe81325b.jpg


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Question is what will the downstream impacts be. I've seen many " experts " this week suggest the impacts wont be near as great for our side of the world

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whatalife said:
Really? Are you snow map loving again Charlie?
4d01cc1ecdb97dc0d6f30831869f6b5f.jpg
c81aa18097a9ca61d2696d328681fb2f.jpg





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Nope, my toddler decided today would be the first day he slept in past 6 on a Saturday so i I had two hours to kill. Looked at every single gefs member which btw they all seem to handle the trough differently . Either way it will be gone by 12z

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Storm5 said:
Nope, my toddler decided today would be the first day he slept in past 6 on a Saturday so i I had two hours to kill. Looked at every single gefs member which btw they all seem to handle the trough differently . Either way it will be gone by 12z

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Well at least he slept later.


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Actually the GEFS has shown something small over the past few runs around 2/11. It's not much because it's ensembles are torn about which way to go. 0z was meager but looking at pivotal, it's back on the 6z.

Edit: That's how we got started I believe with the NC special but I've just been burned so much by the GEFS over this winter and last winter.
 
Well no cutoff low for the energy around day 8, so we're trending better (hasn't been one on the 6z or 12z).
 
Robert @ WxSouth has abandoned his prior optimism on the mid term, still holding out hope for the long term.

“As for any snow and ice, right now the trough shape is not quite right most of the Southeast for a while. This is a pattern where there isn't quite enough cold air far to the South, but Kentucky, northern Arkansas and West Virginia will always be close , since they are north of the main storm tracks.The storm track cuts too far inland for the next couple of weeks it appears.Then followed by quick cooldowns, then warm up and rain. Wash , rinse, repeat. Perhaps later on this month we get the perfect balance of good storm track and cold enough air in place for more regions of the Southeast.”
 
A CAD event around 2/11-2/13 might have some legs...North NC had some wintry from it and the GEFS had been showing something small around there.

edit: looool a cutoff does show up but it's in lala land.
 
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