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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, but we need a stronger vort and better tilt in addition to the neutral tilt being further west. I'm also not counting any solutions as a real possibility until I see agreement between models and multiple consecutive runs agreeing.
gfs_z500_vort_seus_34.png
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I agree, its just the gfs has been showing this Ice storm solution for a while now, i do believe there will be a storm location not sure but the signal is the there. Cmc is coming around as well, not there yet but close. I also notice the gfs is getting colder with each run as well.
 
Stormlover said:
There are some better folks on here that look at the big picture than some mets. They take the ensemble mean or snowfall maps literally and don't even seen to look at the pattern and just trust that the models already know how things will be in 10 to 15 days. Many of them have just gotten lazy. Keep up the good work guys, those that look deeper.
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I look deep into the pattern
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, but we need a stronger vort and better tilt in addition to the neutral tilt being further west. I'm also not counting any solutions as a real possibility until I see agreement between models and multiple consecutive runs agreeing.
gfs_z500_vort_seus_34.png
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Hell I'd take that setup at face value All day

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There is an **opportunity** for the SE Jan 5-7th, but there’s no single wave that has been modeled consistently.

I feel like a broken record, but at any point do these runs even remotely look similar at h5?
320b52cc83c463ec5d1ce7fc2354a26a.jpg


We have a while to go and trying to analyze vort maps is a waste of time right now. Looking at surface maps is also a waste....When modeling doesn’t agree on the overall pattern yet, there’s no use analyzing details.
 
Here is the end of the 12Z Icon...has S/W diving down into the SW. Icon drops around 1040-1044 MB high into Montana 2/4 and has ~1040 MB high over the GL 2/5 where as GFS drops a 1060MB high into Montana 2/4 and has a strong 1048+ high still over the plains 2/5.
icon_z500_vort_namer_61.png icon_z500_mslp_namer_61.png
 
Stormlover said:
There are some better folks on here that look at the big picture than some mets. They take the ensemble mean or snowfall maps literally and don't even seen to look at the pattern and just trust that the models already know how things will be in 10 to 15 days. Many of them have just gotten lazy. Keep up the good work guys, those that look deeper.
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Some have gotten lazy and repetitive in their forecasting ways. Another reason is that they are TOLD what and what not to say by management...Typical corporate BS..
 
Jon said:
There is an **opportunity** for the SE Jan 5-7th, but there’s no single wave that has been modeled consistently.

I feel like a broken record, but at any point do these runs even remotely look similar at h5?
320b52cc83c463ec5d1ce7fc2354a26a.jpg


We have a while to go and trying to analyze vort maps is a waste of time right now. Looking at surface maps is also a waste....When modeling doesn’t agree on the overall pattern yet, there’s no use analyzing details.
Click to expand...
 
Jon said:
There is an **opportunity** for the SE Jan 5-7th, but there’s no single wave that has been modeled consistently.

I feel like a broken record, but at any point do these runs even remotely look similar at h5?
320b52cc83c463ec5d1ce7fc2354a26a.jpg


We have a while to go and trying to analyze vort maps is a waste of time right now. Looking at surface maps is also a waste....When modeling doesn’t agree on the overall pattern yet, there’s no use analyzing details.
Click to expand...
Okay, but what are we supposed to look at if we can't look at or analyze H5? I mean I know we can't really look at surface either but what are we supposed to look for if we can't look at H5 or surface? We know the pattern has potential for cool, storms but with nothing to look at it's just boring.
 
GaWx said:
I'll summarize the 0Z Euro 2 meter temp,'s for the SE over the next 10 days: mild followed by chilly followed by mild followed by chilly followed by mild. Literally back and forth every couple of days. Volatile. So nothing boring about this. If you don't like the wx one day, wait and it will be the opposite soon after.
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So basically the same script as most of the rest of my winters in the south, lol. All the ones without sustained cold, and there are so many :)
 
Silly gfs had me at 3 degrees next Tuesday. I'm assuming that's with snow on the ground. Guess my pipes will be freezing again
 
This is nothing new. The models always have difficulty during times of pattern changes. They will get a better idea of the main players in a few days. Until then, don't even concern yourselves with the operational runs. unless you are forecasting for < 5 days. Folks need to relax, there will be cold for us in February. Too many indices pointing that way to just ignore (MJO, QBO, AO, PNA). It will be a Fab Feb.
 
dsaur said:
Not if you run the water. Don't drip it, run it, both faucets, if anything a bigger stream on the hot side.
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Tony,
So, you're saying run the water inside instead of outside? If inside, just at one sink? For my area, teens are almost always the coldest. I usually think about possibly running it with lows in the low 20s, especially if it looks like a long duration. But I've always done outside.
This area hasn't had single digits since 1985 and there have been only 5 of those since records started in 1874.
 
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mine won't freeze until it gets below 10 and thats not very often around here. the only reason it froze and busted last week is because the kids cut the water off in the middle of the night after i told them not too.
 
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