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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

I'm still concerned about the possibly of the Southeast ridging ruining the chances of cold reaching east of the Appalachian Mountains,however the 0Z GFS did look interesting starting around hour 204 throughout the end of the run with a active pattern.
 
Michael21 said:
I'm still concerned about the possibly of the Southeast ridging ruining the chances of cold reaching east of the Appalachian Mountains,however the 0Z GFS did look interesting starting around hour 204 throughout the end of the run with a active pattern.
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We get it! Change your name to SEridge.
 
Jon said:
That storm will be gone by the 06z run but focus on 500mb...this is the look that produces storms folks. Most models are trending towards this look, even if they’re not there yet.

2e37523d653d6ae383b61a8fe482ded1.jpg



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The 7th storm has been showing for a while now. What storm are you referring to? Thanks
 
I'm feeling it. We're not going to have the SE ridge completely obliterated this time, but it's going to be reduced quite a bit. It won't hurt to have it around if it's not at full blast, as like we saw earlier a lot of stuff we were trying to track was shredded apart due to a strong northern stream.

In the next few days we may still see a ridge on the models, but ultimately in the end, it'll be see ya later, just like last month.
 
Michael21 said:
I'm still concerned about the possibly of the Southeast ridging ruining the chances of cold reaching east of the Appalachian Mountains,however the 0Z GFS did look interesting starting around hour 204 throughout the end of the run with a active pattern.
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We need a little ridge. I want to smell the rain. Marginal temps or gtfo
 
Jon said:
That storm will be gone by the 06z run but focus on 500mb...this is the look that produces storms folks. Most models are trending towards this look, even if they’re not there yet.

2e37523d653d6ae383b61a8fe482ded1.jpg



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That looks much more realistic considering the big ridge out west and the PV in the north. It almost looked as though the models were over smoothing the pattern if that is a good way to put it. Should be interesting if we trend more to this look as February approaches.
 
accu35 said:
The 7th storm has been showing for a while now. What storm are you referring to? Thanks
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For a while now as in the last few runs? And on various days 7th-9th? I wouldn’t say that’s snow for the 7th that’s nailed down. We have a very long way to go. Just cycle through the model runs and look at the vorticity. I’m talking about the overall pattern Feb 5th onward. Trying to track a storm on surface maps right now will make your eyes bleed.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This is actually true, this is just the first time we've seen it as far south as it was. That wave has been there for a while.
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I disagree. There’s no single wave that has been consistently modeled. These are all different waves at varying time frames

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The pattern after the 5th supports development for energy to kick SE of the ridging and undercut the trough. What that energy will look like will change run-to-run.


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Now, I'm not going into specifics as it's too early, and maybe I need to study how to interpret this more, but all I'm saying is a wave has shown lately at H5 near that period. It's been in different configurations with differing outcomes, but it's there around the same date each time.

I did admit earlier that I was being a little lazy but through comparison I don't think there's been a completely different wave.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Now, I'm not going into specifics as it's too early, and maybe I need to study how to interpret this more, but all I'm saying is a wave has shown lately at H5 near that period. It's been in different configurations with differing outcomes, but it's there around the same date each time.

I did admit earlier that I was being a little lazy but through comparison I don't think there's been a completely different wave.
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You’re right specifics don’t matter at this juncture which is my point. You can see here it only locks into a specific wave in the upper left hand corner on the 18z and 00z runs
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I'll summarize the 0Z Euro 2 meter temp,'s for the SE over the next 10 days: mild followed by chilly followed by mild followed by chilly followed by mild. Literally back and forth every couple of days. Volatile. So nothing boring about this. If you don't like the wx one day, wait and it will be the opposite soon after.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The European op (not the Euro monthly I showed earlier) has updated and once again, the MJO forecasts continue to adjust upwards in the Western Pacific, with the latest forecast mean near the high end of its previous forecast a couple days ago. The Euro really sucks w/ MJO events when they're initialized in the Maritime Continent.
View attachment 3523
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Yeah, I have noticed the EPS playing "catchup" as you put it and increasing its amplitude when crossing into 7. To review, when the GEFS was first off the chart at 4.2 in phase 7, the EPS was only 2.5 at is highest in 7 when we both started discussing this. I, in agreement with MDA, stated that based on the strong overamping tendency of the GEFS I was confident that the EPS would end up coming much closer to what verifies for the strongest in 7. I noted that you were taking the rare opposite position of expecting GEFS to verify more closely due to the current setup being similar to past times when GEFS did better and EPS didn't do so good (initialization in Maritime Continent, which I have to admit is quite interesting). This is how I decided to score this EPS vs GEFS battle. IF it gets to 3.5+, I'll give you and GEFS the win. If it verifies 3.0 or under, the EPS and I win. If between 3.0 and 3.5, I'd call it about a draw because neither would deserve a win that far off imo. On the 1/27 run, whereas the GEFS dropped to 4.0, the EPS rose to 2.8
 
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