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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Parker said:
Do you mind posting the snowfall map for NE Tennessee? I will be in the smokies and those maps always give a much better look into the counties.
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Here it is. Of course some of this is from The Tuesday system but majority of it is Friday.

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Well, I can do my snow dance and try to push everything South.

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packfan98 said:
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If we can get to a very slow moving weak MJO 7/8/1/2 along with a solid +PNA and solid -AO, I'd favor a rather lengthy cold SE when that occurs. However, just having the very strong phase 7, itself, doesn't excite me for cold chances based on what I posted yesterday. JB has a tendency to get overly excited about very strong MJOs on the left side vs not so strong ones on the left side. I still think he's off base there.
 
GaWx said:
If we can get to a very slow moving weak MJO 7/8/1/2 along with a solid +PNA and solid -AO, I'd favor a rather lengthy cold SE when that occurs. However, just having the very strong phase 7, itself, doesn't excite me for cold chances based on what I posted yesterday. JB has a tendency to get overly excited about very strong MJOs on the left side vs not so strong ones on the left side. I still think he's off base there.
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Excellent post! Agree 100%. MJO alone does not always do it, especially for SE. Also agree that if models are correct on +PNA, -AO, -EPO in LR, we should have some opportunities for cold and snow upcoming.
I like JB, but we must remember that it is the MA and NE that butters his bread. That is where his focus is most of the time. Cold and snow there does always translate to the same thing in the SE.
 
Let's just hope it'll be cold enough for a big dog storm by the time it does make it to phase 8-1-2 considering it's later in February and March. @GaWx I saw the PNA and other teleconnection forecast. Just don't know if we can get cold enough by late February into March. Plus, it's usually warming up and all the storms are cutters. We shall see though. Don't know of too many good SE winter storms that were good enough to close school, work etc. Without much marginal temps
 
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Batman said:
Excellent post! Agree 100%. MJO alone does not always do it, especially for SE. Also agree that if models are correct on +PNA, -AO, -EPO in LR, we should have some opportunities for cold and snow upcoming.
I like JB, but we must remember that it is the MA and NE that butters his bread. That is where his focus is most of the time. Cold and snow there does always translate to the same thing in the SE.
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Your right. I agree let's just hope we score big
 
Really hope things get good again the beginning of February like they were for most of January. If it doesn't, we will start running out of time quickly.
 
The European op (not the Euro monthly I showed earlier) has updated and once again, the MJO forecasts continue to adjust upwards in the Western Pacific, with the latest forecast mean near the high end of its previous forecast a couple days ago. The Euro really sucks w/ MJO events when they're initialized in the Maritime Continent.
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Webberweather53 said:
The European op (not the Euro monthly I showed earlier) has updated and once again, the MJO forecasts continue to adjust upwards in the Western Pacific, with the latest forecast mean near the high end of its previous forecast a couple days ago. The Euro really sucks w/ MJO events when they're initialized in the Maritime Continent.
View attachment 3523
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Hey Eric is there anyway we can get cold with a strong magnitude Phase 7? This might be a monkey wrench in cold and snow right?
 
pcbjr said:
Webb,
Thanks. Not for the news but for the the forthrightness ...
Phil
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At the same token, the Euro has been backing down on the trough over the Rockies beyond the medium range as usual, and our once prevalent SE ridge at day 10 is withering away into nothingness on the last several 12z suites (the trend isn't as clear on the 0z EPS the past few days but this tendency in the Euro is still applicable in any case)
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Here's an excerpt from an old paper by Wallace, Tibaldi, & Simmons at ECMWF that's still applicable to this day even according to recent literature regarding why the European model has a bias to stick troughs over the Rockies (& thus enhance ridging downstream in the SE US). They're essentially saying in this paper that the gravity wave drag parameterization in the model has issues resolving these features over major mountain ranges like the Rockies where the gravity wave drag and orographic forcing is often very large.
https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default...l-through-introduction-envelope-orography.pdf
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Clayton said:
Hey Eric is there anyway we can get cold with a strong magnitude Phase 7? This might be a monkey wrench in cold and snow right?
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I'd like to answer this. Of course it is possible. There are no even near absolutes with the MJO or any other index. The SE was cold during the very strong phase 7 of 2/1978., for example. Of course, there were other indices like the very strong -NAO/-AO then.
 
Location of Nino/Nina (east based/west based/basin wide) is more impactful on eastern US temperatures than just plain out Nino vs Nina. East Based Ninas tend to produce the coldest out of each ENSO mode(based on enso orientation).
 
Well 0z GFS looks poised to dump arctic air into the Rockies around 4th or so, maybe it'll do that bleed to the East thing going forward in the run?
 
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