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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Yuck is a good word
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Given the temperature profiles, that looks like quite the sleet storm raging on in N. Ga.
 
This should be a nice, soaking cold rain for much of the NC piedmont especially late on Super Bowl Sunday. Certainly curious to see how long the in-situ CAD holds over the western piedmont especially near & west of the Triad.

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Jon said:
Why would the EPS be correct at 2mT at Day 15 when it cant even get Day 9-10 right at 500mb?




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Isn’t it the best performing model? The GEFS looks much better with developing HLB in the extended. Thanks for the feedback, I hope it’s incorrect.
 
1300m said:
The only thing of recent days that concerns me is the potential trend towards the MJO not progressing into Phase 8, which would likely result in about what the long range ensembles are showing. This whole pattern change idea for me has been largely driven by that potential. I know there are some other factors also potentially in play with the PV split that could help out, but if the MJO doesn't cooperate it's going to make things more complicated. And as Webb has explained, that idea could have legs based on SSTs with Nina. We will see.
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Exactly how I feel at the moment. If the mjo was projected into phase 8 I feel the ensemble models would look colder long range.
1300m said:
I'm not saying it is correct, but if it were to be, this would be why.

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What an unfortunate tease that would be...high amplitude B-line toward favorable MJO phases, then right before it gets to cold and snowy phase 8, it hits the breaks and makes a hard U turn. Of course. Hopefully it's still correcting and we get nicely into phase 8. My worry though it's ALL the major ensembles showing the warm ridging and the phase 7 turn. It's not just the EPS that has been having accuracy problems.
 
SnowNiner said:
Exactly how I feel at the moment. If the mjo was projected into phase 8 I feel the ensemble models would look colder long range.


What an unfortunate tease that would be...high amplitude B-line toward favorable MJO phases, then right before it gets to cold and snowy phase 8, it hits the breaks and makes a hard U turn. Of course. Hopefully it's still correcting and we get nicely into phase 8. My worry though it's ALL the major ensembles showing the warm ridging and the phase 7 turn. It's not just the EPS that has been having accuracy problems.
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It's going to reach phase 8 either with amplitude or into the COD, either case favors cold in the eastern US and RMM may not flesh this out because it uses OLR that has an eastern hemisphere bias. The upper level circulation of the MJO will remain in tact even as we lose the convection and will impart forcing onto the North America wave pattern that resembles a phase 8 event. Even if this index says the MJO just magically dissipated when it reached phase 8 that's going to be far from reality when you have a 3.5-4 sigma event in phase 7, some significant remnant of the MJO will remain when it hits the Western Hemisphere (phase 8-1)
 
I will be keeping yall posted from the mountains in Gatlinburg! We will be leaving around lunch today and should get there around 6 tonight. Really hoping that being 2800 feet up will help with some better snowfall. I'll be happy with 1-2 inches. I will post pics!
 
Looks better than the GEFS that was posted above which is strange because the EPS looks worse for the SE at 5H than the GEFS does in the LR.

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Overall trends continue warmer for the SE US on the model consensus through the 12Z GFS.

Edit: ATL gets barely below 0C at 850 next 2 days and then never goes below 0C rest of the 12Z GFS. 6-10 and 11-15 periods warmer than normal at 2 meters SE US.
 
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GaWx said:
Overall trends continue warmer for the SE US on the model consensus through the 12Z GFS.

Edit: ATL gets barely below 0C at 850 next 2 days and then never goes below 0C rest of the 12Z GFS. 6-10 and 11-15 periods warmer than normal at 2 meters SE US.
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I'm sure the GFS will change drastically again once it sees phase 8 or a move to the COD in 8.
 
Jon said:
This could honestly move into 8 on modeling in a decent amplitude in the next few days then a lot of folks will stop panicking. I’m not sold on the nosedive in phase 7 yet
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I don't know about a decent amplitude, but I think it'll get there.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't know about a decent amplitude, but I think it'll get there.
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Whether the MJO gets to phase 8 all global ensembles agree on dumping deep cold into Europe and Asia. Hopefully it can get back to North America before March.

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Meteorologist1999 said:
What does it means for the Southeast if it goes to 8? What is colder 7 or 8
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It isn't that cut and dry as there are many factors that work together. However, if we were isolating the MJO, phase 8 would on average be a little colder than phase 7 in the SE US and especially when not at strong amplitudes. Either inside the circle or just outside...i.e., amplitudes of 1.5 or lower tend on average to be more conducive to SE cold. I say only a little colder than phase 7 because phase 7 itself has been pretty cold when near or inside the circle ON AVERAGE. In all likelihood, nothing major will suddenly happen just because it crosses from 7 to 8. Phase 7 has been one of the cooler phases, not warm, ON AVERAGE.

Bottom line though is that the MJO is never on its own, regardless of phase.
 
Kylo said:
Whether the MJO gets to phase 8 all global ensembles agree on dumping deep cold into Europe and Asia. Hopefully it can get back to North America before March.

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I don't believe that will end up being the case. Everything looks good through 240 (and I use "good" loosely) and then shortly after, things get nutty. If in 10 days, we're seeing that solution showing up imminently, then I'll toss the rest of the month. I don't think that will be the case.
 
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