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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GeorgiaGirl said:
Truly not sure the GFS knows what the heck it's doing. I'm going to be lazy and not look at H5 here, but it has a massive storm on the surface that takes from about 192 to 336 to develop and then go away.
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Well, truncation is what does it I think. Not a bad look...
gfs_z500_vort_us_37.png

...until you see the massive monster SER.
gfs_z500a_us_42.png

I highly doubt the SER is legitimate especially since we keep seeing it trend away, and is likely only being produced due to the idea of a La Nina, but we have yet to see it show up. The models could decide to keep annoying us the remainder of winter with this, and actually trend to verification and verify, or it could keep putting it off as it has so far. In addition, its not consistent out here on the GFS plus its the GFS LR.
 
ForsythSnow said:
...until you see the massive monster SER.
gfs_z500a_us_42.png

I highly doubt the SER is legitimate especially since we keep seeing it trend away, and is likely only being produced due to the idea of a La Nina, but we have yet to see it show up. The models could decide to keep annoying us the remainder of winter with this, and actually trend to verification and verify, or it could keep putting it off as it has so far. In addition, its not consistent out here on the GFS plus its the GFS LR.
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That is not the +PNA look we want ... something is amiss ...
 
pcbjr said:
That is not the +PNA look we want ... something is amiss ...
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Yeah, what happened is I think the models backed off from the good +PNA that we saw earlier. I didn't look at all of them but on one I saw it went back to a -PNA.

But considering what has happened so far, I too don't buy an intense SE ridge.
 
Michael21 said:
Well,the 12Z Gfs is trending towards a -PNA with a southeast ridge.
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That’s one operational model run. That’s not a trend. Ensembles are important especially during significant pattern changes with big players on the table. There’s no point picking a single time frame in the Op GFS and thinking it’s either negative or positive. Take a look at these 3 models both valid same time period (0z 2/5) from the 00z runs:

63e87488efa94e5ec0e358a5b2d8fe29.jpg

b479edab679c08f9735fd47c7ca9face.jpg

12941e1eaaee1d74a649f4282e93caf9.jpg


Ironically the GEM might be the most “right” now. This gif was from a previous post and this is how I expected things to pan out if we want cold and stormy. Notice the ridging moved to the favorable area and there’s toughing over Scandinavia. That all but demands a trough in the east.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
That’s one operational model run. That’s not a trend. Ensembles are important especially during significant pattern changes with big players on the table. There’s no point picking a single time frame in the Op GFS and thinking it’s either negative or positive. Take a look at these 3 models both valid same time period (0z 2/5) from the 00z runs:

63e87488efa94e5ec0e358a5b2d8fe29.jpg

b479edab679c08f9735fd47c7ca9face.jpg

12941e1eaaee1d74a649f4282e93caf9.jpg


Ironically the GEM might be the most “right” now. This gif was from a previous post and this is how I expected things to pan out if we want cold and stormy. Notice the ridging moved to the favorable area and there’s toughing over Scandinavia. That all but demands a trough in the east.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


The 12Z GEM model didn't look as good as it develops a negative PNA towards the end of the run with riding developing in the south.gem_z500a_namer_35.png gem_z500a_namer_39.png gem_z500a_namer_41.png
 
Stormlover said:
Yep, that had to be a trolling comment. Way over the top for sure.
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Lord...there you go again. A grown man continuously accusing people of trolling or being a troll on a weather forum. SMH. Thats just as, or more, annoying than the people you are calling out. If you don't like what someone says, block them, stop whining.
 
Dang, the Canadian just went from massive winter storm in Tennessee and Ohio Valley to nothing at all really at 12z. Hopefully the European will look better. GFS still looks good, but has definetley trended a little down from a few days ago.
 
I don't see the SER ever being that strong, the trend this winter has for it to fade the closer we get to the actual timeframe.
 
snowvol said:
I don't see the SER ever being that strong, the trend this winter has for it to fade the closer we get to the actual timeframe.
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La Ninas during the month of February trends to favor a Southeast ridge with a west coast trough and combine that with the MJO being at a strong phase 7,I see the Southeast ridge gets strong enough to prevent cold from going east of the Appalachian Mountains until Late February atleast. Maybe I could be wrong and models could start trending colder with less Southeast ridging,but as of now,I don't see it.
 
Michael21 said:
La Ninas during the month of February trends to favor a Southeast ridge with a west coast trough and combine that with the MJO being at a strong phase 7,I see the Southeast ridge gets strong enough to prevent cold from going east of the Appalachian Mountains until Late February atleast. Maybe I could be wrong and models could start trending colder with less Southeast ridging,but as of now,I don't see it.
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A lot of the models have trended colder up until this run if I am correct
 
Kylo said:
Is that bad? Seems like after day 10 the MJO will be more favorable so makes sense.
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It's more that the GFS is really bad beyond truncation and each hour you go beyond it, the larger the error. I just look at beyond 240 for major H5 trends or laughs. So far, there is nothing noticeable in terms of trends, only flip flopping.
 
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