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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Storm5 said:
For the record I have an extremely over the top cold bias so I will defend the cold until at least mid March

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You don't say... LOL. I have a bad feeling about February in general, and of course that's because of last year and the fact I think we had our snow for the season. We'd have to be lucky I feel to get another big system. You never know, since the models are clueless, and that lead to a good snow last time. Everyone going all in on mid-month is a bit silly I think since it's so far away and it's bound to change. For all we know, the PNA could never get tall enough to give a good snowstorm for the rest of winter.
 
I know we've had some plenty good storms here the middle of February. The past few years we've had lots of threats the week of Valentine's Day.
 
Storm5 said:
The eps has been busting too warm all year so that's no a surprise at all . Just seems kinda silly to be worried with so much volatility going on . Maybe we do end up much warmer in February but a few runs in my opinion is hardly anything to worry about. Now if next week things still look warmer then yeah it's time to be concerned

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Safe to say models are nowhere near in agreement, and people are getting upset due to their eyeballs being glued to Operational runs...the GFS is a poor model and runs 4x daily. Euro runs 2x Daily. EPS 2x daily, GEFS 4x Daily. That's 12 model runs to get upset about a day. Big picture looks about as good as we can hope for. Like to said, EPS busted in LR horribly and will likely do so again.


Kylo said:
Not sure what happens after this but this looks fairly good. PV in SE Canada with a stout -AO block and a +PNA.

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Jan 2014... If folks get upset with this look they need clinical help. People see red over the SE and think SE Ridge. That's not a ridge. Those dark +18-24dam anomalies over the atlanic, if that was over the SE, then yeah...panic time. But the model is trying to make sense of the entire NH pattern here, which leads to elongation of both the western ridge to the SE and the atlantic ridge to the SW, giving us the "cupping" pattern under the PV. As we get closer, and as the Euro EPS has shown, those ++Anoms will disappear over the SE, leaving the PV elongated with blue extending into GA. Just wait it out.
 
The MJO usually has issues penetrating deep into the central Pacific during La Nina events, that may explain why both the GEFS & EPS are holding the MJO back in phase 7 and never bringing it out to phase 8 which would argue for warmth in the longer term
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Webberweather53 said:
The MJO usually has issues penetrating deep into the central Pacific during La Nina events, that may explain why both the GEFS & EPS are holding the MJO back in phase 7 and never bringing it out to phase 8 which would argue for warmth in the longer term
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Now are you saying it has issues due to having seen this before, research, and data backing it, or just a guess? If it does happen to make a turn to the COD before reaching 8 I'm punting winter and taking what I got.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Now are you saying it has issues due to having seen this before, research, and data backing it, or just a guess? If it does happen to make a turn to the COD before reaching 8 I'm punting winter and taking what I got.
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Hell, you have done received what? 10 inches of snow? Lol if that was the case for me. It wouldn't hurt my feelings if it was 80 degrees the rest of Winter. I'm over here basically on my knees begging for just a inch of snow. Haha but I know we all want February to deliver the goods!
 
Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.
 
Shawn said:
Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.
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Agreed... CMC has a strong tendency to overdo ice storms just as it does with TC's imo, IF I had all the ice and all the TC's the Canadian has shone just over the last year NC would be a desolate place
 
Shawn said:
Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.
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I agree. I mentioned that the CMC has a decent below freezing area at 925mb to the surface for a large amount of the storm. That would drop probably up to an inch of sleet and about 0.1 to 0.2 inches of ZR verbatim on the CMC.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Now are you saying it has issues due to having seen this before, research, and data backing it, or just a guess? If it does happen to make a turn to the COD before reaching 8 I'm punting winter and taking what I got.
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There's an extensive body of literature on how ENSO modulates MJO activity especially regarding how deep the MJO is capable of progressing beyond the international dateline. Climatoloigcal mean SSTs east of the international dateline are often insufficient to readily support deep cB convection. In a La Niña the eastern edge of the sufficiently warm SSTs (27-27.5C ish) shift closer to the Maritime Continent and without these warm SSTs critical processes such as Wave CISK and wind-induced surface heat exchanges and surface evaporation and uptake by the atmosphere are reduced. This favors attenuation of the MJO into a faster high frequency convecticely coupled kelvin wave before it's able to get deep into the central Pacific. As we know from recent observation, the GFS has consistently been beating the Euro with the MJO, however the past few GFS forecasts have clearly nudged to the European with a slightly more dampened MJO event that struggles to reach phase 8
 
Shawn said:
Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.
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Shawn what's your gut feeling around here for getting a decent winter event before end of Feb?
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's an extensive body of literature on how ENSO modulates MJO activity especially regarding how deep the MJO is capable of progressing beyond the international dateline. Climatoloigcal mean SSTs east of the international dateline are often insufficient to readily support deep cB convection. In a La Niña the eastern edge of the sufficiently warm SSTs (27-27.5C ish) shift closer to the Maritime Continent and without these warm SSTs critical processes such as Wave CISK and wind-induced surface heat exchanges and surface evaporation and uptake by the atmosphere are reduced. This favors attenuation of the MJO into a faster high frequency convecticely coupled kelvin wave before it's able to get deep into the central Pacific. As we know from recent observation, the GFS has consistently been beating the Euro with the MJO, however the past few GFS forecasts have clearly nudged to the European with a slightly more dampened MJO event that struggles to reach phase 8
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So are you saying we should be more concerned about a warmer Feb. now?


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Spurs up said:
Shawn what's your gut feeling around here for getting a decent winter event before end of Feb?
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I had said a week or so ago, I was starting to see signs of Gulf activity on various modeling along with highs in the Northeast. That is our key, and I think we have a shot through early March. Yesterday's 12z GEFS suite started to beat the drum on the idea, and I'm just waiting for the Euro/EPS to start throwing the idea out there.

Overall, the storm track becomes more favorable by the 8-10th of February for us, and that's all we can hope on.
 
Shawn said:
Larry (@GaWx) did some research, about ice storms being a lower threat for parts of the SE come mid February. Anyways, I would say that I would think it would be more sleet vs a raging ice storm as modeled by the horrible Canadian model.

I've noticed overall, that the Canadian is a horrible model in regards to surface temperatures, anyways.
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I can deal with a good sleet storm, music to the ears.
 
StoneMtnWx said:
18Z Nam is changing over rain to a light snow event Thursday evening/night over portions of Tennessee...band dies before going into WNC. Bottom image is the 12Z run same time frame to show change.
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What a drastic change. I’ve been starting to lose hope and then the NAM goes nuts! Mountains would get hammered!
 
Stormlover said:
That's not true at all.
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How is it not true ? In 25 years i didnt see one meaningful winter event after Feb 15 living south of I-20. Im not saying other areas didnt get significant snow or ice in that time period but im just speaking about my observations. 1993 was the last time i saw anything significant after mid Feb.
 
Stormlover said:
6-10 backed off on the cold a little, but 8-14 has it
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Actually, the grey (N) could go up or down; it's just a percentage probability spanning 7 days over 2 weeks out from now. For everyone's sake, here's hoping the real outcome has alligators in Big Cypress Swamp with ice on their tails sometime before the 14th ... :cool:
Bottom line - Don't take any forecast too seriously, or as gospel in any event; for example, I went to bed last night after the State of the Union and the NWS was calling for 36º; woke up and NWS was reporting 30º (29º in my back yard) - so in a span between 11:00 PM and 6:00 AM, they miserably missed a freeze and a heavy frost ...
Now, back to reading and studying ... ;)
 
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SoutheastRidge said:
How is it not true ? In 25 years i didnt see one meaningful winter event after Feb 15 living south of I-20. Im not saying other areas didnt get significant snow or ice in that time period but im just speaking about my observations. 1993 was the last time i saw anything significant after mid Feb.
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Maybe, but in twenty five years I haven't seen more than four inches until something happened in December.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Here's a daily dose of negativity and cliff diving if you trust the EPS. Each run is getting worse and worse BTW.
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Snow maps are the least important thing from an ensemble run . The oput is based off the changes at H5 which translates to how the members hand any system . They are fun to look at but don't mean Jack s***

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ForsythSnow said:
Here's a daily dose of negativity and cliff diving if you trust the EPS. Each run is getting worse and worse BTW.
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Startling to see how different the EPS is from the GEFS/GEPS. Posting all 3 5 day 2m temperature departures below, let's see who verifies come next week.

The GEPS and GEFS both look similar from a hemispheric pattern too.


14-km EPS Global North America 5-day Avg T2M Anom 360.png gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png gem-ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png
 
Storm5 said:
Snow maps are the least important thing from an ensemble run . The oput is based off the changes at H5 which translates to how the members hand any system . They are fun to look at but don't mean Jack s***

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Should have posted this too. If someone says this is money they need to see a doctor LOL.
ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Here's a daily dose of negativity and cliff diving if you trust the EPS. Each run is getting worse and worse BTW.
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Well, to ease some concerns, the skill of the Euro at 500mb anomalies (NH) at Day 10 is about .538 with the GFS at Day 10 at 0.473, you can imagine what the Day 15 skill is...dreadful. Probably 15% or less.
 
Storm5 said:
Happy VDAY from the EPS!!!!!
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Something has to be wrong if we bake from the west to the east.
Jon said:
Well, to ease some concerns, the skill of the Euro at 500mb anomalies (NH) at Day 10 is about .538 with the GFS at Day 10 at 0.473, you can imagine what the Day 15 skill is...dreadful. Probably 15% or less.
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Yeah, they aren't verifying high at the moment, so why trust them to some degree? I really am just clueless, but expect heat at this point. Just get me tons of rain here and I'm fine, but if I miss out on snow for rain I will be frustrated as one normally would be, unless someone is getting snow who hasn't. I think it's safe to throw out the Feb 5th system for heavy rain given the trends unless something changes due to the energy being so chaotic and all over the place.
 
Kylo said:
Startling to see how different the EPS is from the GEFS/GEPS. Posting all 3 5 day 2m temperature departures below, let's see who verifies come next week.

The GEPS and GEFS both look similar from a hemispheric pattern too.


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None of those are really cold in the SE, so IMO, I don't care which verifies, really. I suppose the GEFS would be preferred, given the colder look to the north. None of them look snowy, though. Vortex looks too wound up. Very, very cold, but highly concentrated. Storm track near the area, but truthfully, unless we get a few 1040+ highs just to the north or northwest, storm track really isn't going to matter for most of the area. 1026 highs aint gonna cut it. MJO running out the clock in Phase 7 aint gonna cut it either. Block over the Arctic needs to build SE and dislodge the cold or we need a PV split or something. Fab Feb turning into Feb Fizzle. Sad!
 
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