That double barrel look is killing us on the rain/frozen line. Need that thing south tracking through the gulf. Still time for changes, but I don't see much at this point to cause much concern for folks along that boundary. Certainly subject to change though
I haven't hit my yearly avg in 10 years, so I'm waiting on a solid pounding to make up for all my angst
Been waiting on that for...well, ten years, lol, and before that was spring storms, that don't really count since they are gone almost before they happen. I mean, can you count snow that's melting as it falls? I guess you can but 4 inches and still patches of ground showing, just doesn't seem like the real deal. The real deal to me is total coverage that lasts at least a few days...so I guess my last decent storm was in the 90's....do ya'll feel my pain??? I mean, I got three inches in the blizzard, but it all blew away, so it was like a foot in the banked up places, and nothing much else where. Dang, I think I'm about the cry again.....
Wow that's no good Tony. Hope you make up for it with a big sleet storm before we close out the winter!I haven't hit my yearly avg in 10 years, so I'm waiting on a solid pounding to make up for all my angst
I don't see a double barrel.
This must of been temporary since it shows hours 114 and 120 now. Would be nice if it was due to significant changes in our favor. Oh well.
Reminds me of the Jan 2014 pattern, which I believe was also a Weak La Nina...
Mid Jan 2014 also featured a -EPO lasting thru 2/6
2014 01 16 -118.52
2014 01 17 -113.89
2014 01 18 -45.26
2014 01 19 -78.89
2014 01 20 -165.85
2014 01 21 -144.10
2014 01 22 -175.17
2014 01 23 -268.82
2014 01 24 -346.30
2014 01 25 -359.74
2014 01 26 -330.50
2014 01 27 -303.46
2014 01 28 -222.42
2014 01 29 -125.07
2014 01 30 -148.99
2014 01 31 -205.04
2014 02 01 -233.79
2014 02 02 -237.32
2014 02 03 -188.77
2014 02 04 -167.69
2014 02 05 -199.05
2014 02 06 -136.11
that lead to a historic cold outbreak and 3 storms, the best of which came late Jan, then of course several ZR and snowfall storms Feb of that year as well, and winter events well into March.
CMC says it's ice time. Temps stay at or barely above freezing the entire duration of the precip in CAD areas, which could mean ice. However, after my fail of watching ice last time, I'll just watch it and not start any threads LOL.
That's what I get for going off surface mapsI don't see a double barrel.
The mess is in the energy and no tall ridge out west. Without that ridge being tall out west, it just kind of slides down and never goes neutral or digs deep enough. Not deep enough = cold rain for all.
The eps has been busting too warm all year so that's no a surprise at all . Just seems kinda silly to be worried with so much volatility going on . Maybe we do end up much warmer in February but a few runs in my opinion is hardly anything to worry about. Now if next week things still look warmer then yeah it's time to be concerned
.25 of ice would do some damage.CMC ZR map. I also checked the 925 mb level, and it appears there could be some sleet in there as well.
The gfs and gefs are the ones that were showing cold before mid month . As Larry and others have pointed out everything pointed to mid month and the last half February . The gfs is notorious for rushing pattern changes and was the only one really showing cold before mid February. Classic pattern change rushBut that was what was said by many on here last week.
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I'm worried if mid to late month will be good enough to really get the job done for a big dog for some who haven't gotten anything. Don't really see to many good storms mid to late month imo. That's what I think some on here are worried that even late month or so won't be good enough because by climatology standards, temps are moderating and there tends to be more cutters
Worry away historically many on this board receive their biggest storms in late February into March
