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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

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gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png gfs_z500_vort_us_20.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png GFS looked better I think at H5 this run in regards to early next week system...slp track not ideal for majority here right now but surely will change.
 
Yea 0z icon and the ggem both with lows in Gulf than the GFS running through southern portions of Gulf states.gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_19.png
 
Here's the final snow accumulation map for the mid-upper level s/w that provided a burst of snow to much of NC early yesterday morning. The heaviest snow fell along I-40 from Hillsborough to Winston-Salem, snow even fell as far south & east as Fayetteville & New Bern!
January 29-30 2018 NC Snowmap .png
 
Close to having some snow here this weekend on the models. Looks a little too warm right now.
 
The 6z GEFS probably isn't going to be as good as the recent ones as the GFS itself was a dud run on the potential future cold (I don't have the time to try to look at why). That said I'll look at it and see if there is anything that contradicts this.

edit: yup. The GEFS usually doesn't contradict the GFS by that much. Hopefully, it's like what we saw in December in the long range with trouble with deciding between warm and cold.
 
I wonder if the models bouncing around are due to all the changes happening at once. Big westerly wind burst upcoming in tropical pacific, strong MJO moving into phase 7 and potentially phase 8 and now the GEPS and GEFS agree on what looks like could be strong strat PV disruption. Or, maybe the cold won't reach as far south the first half of February and we have to wait for a great back half to February into March.


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Patiently waiting on the ensembles to lose the ridging in the south for mid-month...perhaps it's because they still have the MJO losing strength in phase 7? Hopefully like the EPS it'll lose it once it gets into the mid-range timeframes.

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
A moderator brought it up in here so I figured it was game to discuss in here.
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Just keep in mind what a moderator says isn't always right, and we do mess up with things some times as well. I think I just said what I did because all I heard for the past several years on weather boards was NC. If you guys haven't had snow this year than by all means we should root for you getting some.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Just keep in mind what a moderator says isn't always right, and we do mess up with things some times as well. I think I just said what I did because all I heard for the past several years on weather boards was NC. If you guys haven't had snow this year than by all means we should root for you getting some.
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I can’t speak for all of NC but I’m at about 175% of my average annual snowfall
 
ForsythSnow said:
Just keep in mind what a moderator says isn't always right, and we do mess up with things some times as well. I think I just said what I did because all I heard for the past several years on weather boards was NC. If you guys haven't had snow this year than by all means we should root for you getting some.
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If anyone on here is going to root for anyone. The Midlands of SC should be in the discussion. Savannah (in GA) to Charleston, Orangeburg, Florence, Myrtle beach, Rock Hill, Spartanburg, Greenville have all seen measurable Wintry precip. Augusta to Columbia have seen a trace.. twice. (which was flurries) I'm all for rooting for people that haven't been hit. Lol
 
Seems like a pretty good bet to count on at least 0.5-1" of rain with this system on Super Bowl Sunday into early Monday across most of NC with higher amounts of up to 1.5-2" possible. Even though most of this precipitation isn't snow, I will gladly take the rain, we haven't seen a wetter than average La Nina February since 1989, literally every single NINA February has been dry since then in the central piedmont of NC. Not to mention, we were beginning to slip into a formidable drought.
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This actually sounds encouraging, from GSP disco.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed: On Saturday, high pressure will once again
drift off the East Coast, and a shortwave trough will begin to
approach it from the west. However, this event looks to pan out a
little differently for our area than the one in the middle of the
week. The models have come into reasonably good agreement on its
evolution. The shortwave will induce cyclogenesis along the warm
front near the western Gulf Coast, and the developing system looks
to pass across or south of our CWFA on Sunday. The high will be in
position to support the possible development of an in-situ wedge
as precip spreads in from the west Sunday morning. Accordingly
model thermodynamic profiles and partial thickness trends suggest
a full range of p-types are possible Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Temps are still expected to warm enough for a change to all
rain for the afternoon, though guidance may not yet be taking the
full effect of the wedge into account. As the low begins to move up
the East Coast Sunday night, the wraparound moisture and CAA could
re-introduce snow over the mountains and NW NC Piedmont. Confidence
is still low on any snow or ice accumulations, though we are getting
into the part of the year in which freezing rain is climatologically
unusual. Nonetheless a large portion of the area could be impacted
Saturday night into Sunday with snow and sleet; current model QPF
suggests appreciable travel issues if p-types pan out as expected.

After a brief reprieve late Monday and Tuesday, the GFS and EC
both depict clipper-induced cyclogenesis over the Ohio Valley and
increasing PoPs Tuesday night. This event currently looks more of
a rain-snow split. For now we will advertise only slight-chance
PoPs and confine snow to the mountains.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol our average is actually around 2 to 2.5 inches I believe up here. Had 10.1" this year so far
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Pretty sure the airport is 2 so I would imagine a bit more up our way.
 
Looks like just rain here this weekend. Hope next week and beyond still look good for more snow here.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Seems like a pretty good bet to count on at least 0.5-1" of rain with this system on Super Bowl Sunday into early Monday across most of NC with higher amounts of up to 1.5-2" possible. Even though most of this precipitation isn't snow, I will gladly take the rain, we haven't seen a wetter than average La Nina February since 1989, literally every single NINA February has been dry since then in the central piedmont of NC. Not to mention, we were beginning to slip into a formidable drought.
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Would be nice to see one of these long-duration events with temps below freezing. It just doesn't seem to happen anymore.
 
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