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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Arcc said:
Good then enjoy the present as you have five or so days of the optimist version of me before I decend to the dark corners of negativity.

#whatIdoforsnow
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I'd much rather you start being negative now to really set the stage

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ForsythSnow said:
I'm already questioning whether I should just punt the first half of February as it looks too far away for N GA or hold out and wait and see. Things look like a bunch of cold rain at the moment, but at least the rain is better than the dry.
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After what I've witnessed the way s/w have trended this year, I'm not punting anything. A strung out shortwave trended into nine inches and a dead clipper trended to give me a inch and a half of powder. All within three days prior to the event.

Or maybe I will.
 
Storm5 said:
Not that it matters one bit but holy hell the 8th -13th
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Hope that snow hole in PA is over JBs house... Done nothing but complain about how low snow totals over his area is... LoL SMH


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Really digging the positivity here for Ferocious Fierce Fab February. Sounds like the fun really begins next week.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Really digging the positivity here for Ferocious Fierce Fab February. Sounds like the fun really begins next week.
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Ferocious Fierce Fab 2nd week in Feb may very well turn out to be more appropriate instead of broadbrushing entire month. But we'll see.

edit: If the mJO will really stall in weak 7/8/1 area, that would imo be helpful to get cold to last longer term (into 3rd week at least).
 
RAH saying we might see snow Saturday and Sunday night, or we might not, because we don't really know yet.

Friday night through Monday: Surface high pressure will build into and through the area Friday night, shifting offshore by late Saturday and Saturday night. As a result, Friday night through Saturday is expected to be dry with below normal temperatures. Aloft, NW flow Friday night will shift to westerly on Saturday then more southwesterly Saturday night as an upper level trough sets up over the Midwest. A surface low develops over the Gulf Coast Sunday morning as the Canadian high pressure drives south through the Midwest. The low is expected to shift eastward through the FL panhandle, then northeast along the Southeast US coast Sunday and Sunday night. Over Central NC, a lingering ridge may inhibit some of the warm advection at the surface early on and with the current forecast track of the low, Central NC will be on the northern edge as it passes to the south and east. There is a lot of uncertainty, as the temperature, timing of the system and when/if the associated cold front moves into/through the area, will play a huge role in if, where and how much snow Central NC receives. Will continue to mention the chance for rain or snow Saturday night and Sunday night, while the daytime temperatures will likely be warm enough for a transition to all rain. Will continue to keep a close eye on this system in the coming days, but for right now its too early to
speculate about impacts with this system given the high degree of uncertainty.
 
Storm5 said:
At this point im not looking for a locked in cold pattern . I'll take quick cold hits with an active southern stream

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If there is just a Fab 2nd week of Feb, that would be more than enough to call this a Fab winter overall imo. As it is, it has already been fabulous and I'm not just talking about wintry precip as not everyone got that. It is just that this has been a real winter with its typical ups and downs but with the downs (cold) making their presence front and center.
 
Really close call for Sunday into Monday for NC, unfortunately there's not much of a cold high to our north or northwest, a 1033 hPa over southern Minnesota is probably not going to be enough except for the mountains and far northwestern piedmont if anything
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Storm5 said:
At this point im not looking for a locked in cold pattern . I'll take quick cold hits with an active southern stream

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I'm definitely looking for a more or less locked in pattern 2/15 through the end of the month. 2 weeks of mostly below normal would be nice. That way it's not playing whack a mole trying to time the storms up with cold. My hope is once the MJO gets into favorable phases, it'll pump up the ridge, push the pv SE and we can set the stage for whatever makes it out of the SW. Not as extreme as January but solid below normal.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Really close call for Sunday into Monday for NC, unfortunately there's not much of a cold high to our north or northwest, a 1033 hPa over southern Minnesota is probably not going to be enough except for the mountains and far northwestern piedmont if anything
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Euro sucks anyway. It's all about timing the precip, with how much cold air is left from the fri/sat cold shot and if it comes in before dawn on Sun morning, IMO
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm definitely looking for a more or less locked in pattern 2/15 through the end of the month. 2 weeks of mostly below normal would be nice. That way it's not playing whack a mole trying to time the storms up with cold. My hope is once the MJO gets into favorable phases, it'll pump up the ridge, push the pv SE and we can set the stage for whatever makes it out of the SW. Not as extreme as January but solid below normal.
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I didn't mean I don't think it's possible. I should have said I dont care if a locked pattern sets up. It's February the backend of winter is here . Give me cold shots and an active southern stream and I'll be happy. If a colder pattern locks in I guess that would just be a bonus

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Storm5 said:
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The most likely verification is going to be between the warm biased EPS (a longterm bias..nothing new) and the cold biased GEFS (again a longterm bias/nothing new with much of this cold bias likely due to being too cold over snowcover). So, I say go in between but closer to the GEFS. By the way, the CMC ensemble mean (GEPS) is even warmer over the SE US in the 6-15 day period with warmer than normal! But the GEPS
also has a warm bias which I think it even stronger than that of the EPS.

In summary for the SE US at two meters, the GEFS is near normal in the 6-10 and a little colder than normal in the 11-15, the EPS is near normal in the 6-15, and the GEPS is warmer than normal in the 6-15. I say go between the near to colder than normal GEFS and the near normal EPS but closer to the GEFS. So, I'm expecting the 6-15 to average at least a little colder than normal as of now.
 
GaWx said:
The most likely verification is going to be between the warm biased EPS (a longterm bias..nothing new) and the cold biased GEFS (again a longterm bias/nothing new with much of this cold bias likely due to being too cold over snowcover). So, I say go in between but closer to the GEFS. By the way, the CMC ensemble mean (GEPS) is even warmer over the SE US in the 6-15 day period with warmer than normal! But the GEPS
also has a warm bias which I think it even stronger than that of the EPS.

In summary for the SE US at two meters, the GEFS is near normal in the 6-10 and a little colder than normal in the 11-15, the EPS is near normal in the 6-15, and the GEPS is warmer than normal in the 6-15. I say go between the near to colder than normal GEFS and the near normal EPS but closer to the GEFS. So, I'm expecting the 6-15 to average at least a little colder than normal as of now.
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Larry,
Someone's gonna do well. Many, perhaps. I have $5.00 on who isn't ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Someone's gonna do well. I have $5.00 on who isn't ... o_O
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If you're talking about Gainseville, FL, wintry precip, we both know you could say that 95+++% of the time and be right. But as usual, I'm not specifically addressing wintry precip. since there's more to winter than precip. (I know you agree). Also, you never know when the magic will happen, especially with what some of the model runs have been showing. I wouldn't completely rule it out just yet even with it being extremely unlikely.
 
GFS showing a lot of threats in the long range, like between next Wednesday and the 15th. Looks like a prime time for strong storm signals.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Been to several 500's and I love your area for weather in mid-February. It can still feel chilly at night but the days are awesome.
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Greg,
I'll take it a big step further and say that you could easily freeze your as* off in the radiational cooling capital of FL at night in mid Feb. I actually lived there through most of one winter. It nowhere even resembles the bulk of FL on those nights! There were many very comfy winter days for walking...just fabulous walking country in winter. Actually, my favorite time to walk was early evening on a clear, cool, dry day with light winds as the temp. started to rapidly fall.
 
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GaWx said:
If you're talking about Gainseville, FL, wintry precip, we both know you could say that 95+++% of the time and be right. But as usual, I'm not specifically addressing wintry precip. since there's more to winter than precip. (I know you agree). Also, you never know when the magic will happen, especially with what some of the model runs have been showing. I wouldn't completely rule it out just yet even with it being extremely unlikely.
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Hey!
Wasn't talking about wintry precip IMBY; just that the line of demarcation for anything chilly (which you have to admit constitutes most of the fun for me, given location) continuously seems to be setting up just a tad too uncomfortably far north to ignore (not one model or one run, but all models for a few days now, BTW).
95+++%? Try 98+% ... LOL
Suffice it to say, I'm a realist, and the biggest cheerleader here for my brothers and sisters north and west of me ... :cool:
So, here's hoping for most, if not all ... but realistically, mostly for most ... ;)
Best!
Phil
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Can someone please put the ensemble memeber snow total maps on here? I don't think weathermodels.com has them
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The gefs is posted. The eps hasn't been . I'll post it when I get home . I can tell you it looks absolutely nothing like the gefs but that's due to the massive 500mb differences between the two .

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The key for interior SC, again, on these runs to be showing the higher means through middle February is a low in the Gulf and a High in the Northeast. This is exactly what you should pay attention to if you're looking for snow around the area. Not the nickle and dime events behind and along cold fronts.
 
Storm5 said:
I didn't mean I don't think it's possible. I should have said I dont care if a locked pattern sets up. It's February the backend of winter is here . Give me cold shots and an active southern stream and I'll be happy. If a colder pattern locks in I guess that would just be a bonus

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I think the more relaxed cold shots in Feb. as opposed to what we sometimes see in Jan, is the main reason I can remember bigger and better snowstorms in Feb. than in Jan.
 
Shawn said:
The key for interior SC, again, on these runs to be showing the higher means through middle February is a low in the Gulf and a High in the Northeast. This is exactly what you should pay attention to if you're looking for snow around the area. Not the nickle and dime events behind and along cold fronts.
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Agreed, especially with the low suppressed to crossing central FL (clearly a better chance than N FL though N FL can still produce if air cold enough). When the talk is about suppression, I'd be perking up if I were in your area. Of course, I like the very rare super suppression like what we had 1/3/18.
 
Shawn said:
The key for interior SC, again, on these runs to be showing the higher means through middle February is a low in the Gulf and a High in the Northeast. This is exactly what you should pay attention to if you're looking for snow around the area. Not the nickle and dime events behind and along cold fronts.
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Yeh we aren't going to get snow with the cold chasing moisture crap that works for everyone West of the mountains.
 
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Storm5 said:
The gefs is posted. The eps hasn't been . I'll post it when I get home . I can tell you it looks absolutely nothing like the gefs but that's due to the massive 500mb differences between the two .

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I mean like these things. That was from earlier today
 
GaWx said:
Agreed, especially with the low suppressed to crossing central FL (clearly a better chance than N FL though N FL can still produce if air cold enough). When the talk is about suppression, I'd be perking up if I were in your area. Of course, I like the very rare super suppression like what we had 1/3/18.
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I can understand that, because usually when we're getting a big snowstorm here in the Upstate, your area is not getting snow. At best probably a sloppy mess or just plain rain.
 
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